2018 Offseason And Targets

[Southcack77]

If Markakis is our full time LFer next year without getting a huge rotation upgrade and JTR... this off season is a failure... his first half was unsustainable as evidenced by his second half which was one of the worst half of any regular in baseball. I'm thinking the more likely answer is that he's getting old, his peripherals rebounded to career norms and is likely in steep decline. Why sign medocrity/bad if you're brewing a trade for a much better option who will likely be cheaper? I'd say its likely that AA is working on something like that behind the scenes.

I disagree with this. It’s running back the same team except adding a potential all star at 3b.

If Markakis is the answer I would expect bigger upgrades in pen and maybe at starter.

 

[thewupk]

I disagree with this. It’s running back the same team except adding a potential all star at 3b.

If Markakis is the answer I would expect bigger upgrades in pen and maybe at starter.

The name on the jersey may be the same but the production won't be. Anybody with half a brain realizes that we will get 15-17 Neck instead of 18 Neck. Neck in a cOF spot is a failure.

 

[thewupk]

Well I think it was a little more than half a year, more like 2/3 of a year and his decline was directly in time with the increased games per month. I'm not going to say he's going to be a great player but I do think he had a great year for him that was side tracked by a tough schedule. I think if he would have had a normal work load, he would have carried the first half through the season. I don't know if he could have another year like this one but I think he earned the chance to see, and more importantly I don't really like anyone I've seen any more than him that seems to be on the market that's a realistic option. What we are choosing between is Markakis who seems to be durable, a bunch of high injury risks and people who are no better than Markakis or maybe worse. I'm just saying, we know what we get with him, and maybe we could get another year like last year or maybe we get his career averages. Either way I don't think we are any worse off than with any of the other people we have as a choose.

I'm going to give this post a one off response and assume you're not a troll.

2018 1st Half OPS: 877
2018 2nd Half OPS: 701

2017 OPS: 744
2016 OPS: 738
2015 OPS: 746
2014 OPS: 729

One of these is not like the other. One of these is not the same.

At this point we have a clear idea of what Neck is capable of offensively. Now I'm happy we were able to catch lightning in the bottle in the 1st half with Neck. He helped us win games and his 1st half production is one of the reasons we won the division. But smart teams realize it for what it and strive to do better.

 

[Freshmaker]

Guess we don't have any internal options right? Assuming we don't trade Riley or move him to OF and that Pache isn't ready. Do we even have any of Adams, Santana or Tucker on the roster? Not wanting or recommending any, mind you. Just curious who all we have left on the roster

 

[nsacpi]

Guess we don't have any internal options right?

Riley, Camargo and Duval.

Plus guys like Matt Joyce are available on cheap one-year deals.

 

[zbhargrove]

I disagree with this. It’s running back the same team except adding a potential all star at 3b.

If Markakis is the answer I would expect bigger upgrades in pen and maybe at starter.

It's not the same team... you're replacing an anomalous year of Markakis with a regular plus steeply declining year of Markakis.

 

[zbhargrove]

I disagree with this. It’s running back the same team except adding a potential all star at 3b.

If Markakis is the answer I would expect bigger upgrades in pen and maybe at starter.

I also guess you missed the whole point where I said if it's Markakis and there aren't significant upgrades elsewhere...

 

[nsacpi]

I'm going to give this post a one off response and assume you're not a troll.

2018 1st Half OPS: 877
2018 2nd Half OPS: 701

2017 OPS: 744
2016 OPS: 738
2015 OPS: 746
2014 OPS: 729

One of these is not like the other. One of these is not the same.

At this point we have a clear idea of what Neck is capable of offensively. Now I'm happy we were able to catch lightning in the bottle in the 1st half with Neck. He helped us win games and his 1st half production is one of the reasons we won the division. But smart teams realize it for what it and strive to do better.

Matt Joyce numbers over the same period:

2014: .732 (493 PA)
2015: .564 (284 PA)
2016: .866 (293 PA)
2017: .808 (544 PA)
2018: .675 (246 PA)

He projects as essentially the same hitter as Muk in 2019. Which has to inform what kind of offer AA makes to Muk if they decide to go in that direction. Any offer has to be based on the idea Muk projects as a 1 WAR player in 2019.

 

[Freshmaker]

Riley, Camargo and Duval.

Plus guys like Matt Joyce are available on cheap one-year deals.

Ah yes thank you. Duval's performance was so forgettable last year that I keep forgetting about him.

 

[Carp]

I'm going to give this post a one off response and assume you're not a troll.

2018 1st Half OPS: 877
2018 2nd Half OPS: 701

2017 OPS: 744
2016 OPS: 738
2015 OPS: 746
2014 OPS: 729

One of these is not like the other. One of these is not the same.

At this point we have a clear idea of what Neck is capable of offensively. Now I'm happy we were able to catch lightning in the bottle in the 1st half with Neck. He helped us win games and his 1st half production is one of the reasons we won the division. But smart teams realize it for what it and strive to do better.

While I'm totally in agreement that Neck won't repeat his 2018, Lenny is technically correct. Going by month, he had a .831 OPS or better every month until August. So 4 of the 6 months would be 2/3. Again though, I'm totally in agreement that it's highly unlikely he'll repeat that again.

 

[zbhargrove]

While I'm totally in agreement that Neck won't repeat his 2018, Lenny is technically correct. Going by month, he had a .831 OPS or better every month until August. So 4 of the 6 months would be 2/3. Again though, I'm totally in agreement that it's highly unlikely he'll repeat that again.

I get that month by month school of thought. But his August on was so awful that it brought down his entire second half stats to terrible... so the stats I used were still completely half season stats and still were awful

And his April really wasn't fantastic

Edit: it was June not April that the cracks started to show...

 

[thewupk]

While I'm totally in agreement that Neck won't repeat his 2018, Lenny is technically correct. Going by month, he had a .831 OPS or better every month until August. So 4 of the 6 months would be 2/3. Again though, I'm totally in agreement that it's highly unlikely he'll repeat that again.

When you break it down any player can look good for X amount of time. So in that lens yes Lenny is technically correct on a month by month basis of Necks production. His reasoning for that however is flawed.

 

[Enscheff]

I disagree with this. It’s running back the same team except adding a potential all star at 3b.

If Markakis is the answer I would expect bigger upgrades in pen and maybe at starter.

The same team with a downgrade at catcher and cOF, canceling out most or all of the JD upgrade. JD also comes with some significant injury risk.

This course of action is betting on improvements to come organically from young players improving. That’s a pretty good bet for this talented roster, but many expected improvements from FAs, trades and organic growth.

AA has to have something up his sleeve, and it’s probably one of JTR or Haniger coupled with Gray.

 

[thewupk]

The same team with a downgrade at catcher and cOF, canceling out most or all of the JD upgrade. JD also comes with some significant injury risk.

This course of action is betting on improvements to come organically from young players improving. That’s a pretty good bet for this talented roster, but many expected improvements from FAs, trades and organic growth.

AA has to have something up his sleeve, and it’s probably one of JTR or Haniger coupled with Gray.

Honestly I'd take JTR and Neck back. Not what many would expect when entering the offseason but adding JTR and JD be an overall net positive to the position player group even with bringing Neck back. As is though it would be a failure.

 

[msstate7]

Honestly I'd take JTR and Neck back. Not what many would expect when entering the offseason but adding JTR and JD be an overall net positive to the position player group even with bringing Neck back. As is though it would be a failure.

I'm not opposed to this either. I'd give nick a lot more days off though and try to get Duvall going

 

[Horsehide Harry]

The same team with a downgrade at catcher and cOF, canceling out most or all of the JD upgrade. JD also comes with some significant injury risk.

This course of action is betting on improvements to come organically from young players improving. That’s a pretty good bet for this talented roster, but many expected improvements from FAs, trades and organic growth.

AA has to have something up his sleeve, and it’s probably one of JTR or Haniger coupled with Gray.

I don't think it will be either JTR or Haniger at this point. The Marlins have badly played the JTR deal and are running out of locations. Other teams know this and will dig in even further on their offers. I'm actually a little surprised and maybe dubious that the Braves have offered Riley for him since Donaldson is a one year guy and if they thought Camargo was the long term guy there, then why Donaldson in the first place. I think Miami ends up holding JTR for an in-season trade.

As for Haniger, if Seattle was going to trade him, I think they would have done it by now. I think they will hold him to avoid being historically bad during a rebuild which is one of the worst value sins possible.

I can see a possible Gray trade along with Clint Frazier. But the rhetoric about Gray being a ToR guy coming from the talking heads tells me that the Yankees don't think they have to trade him at all, at least not right now.

So much of this offseason depends on where Harper and Machado end up (especially Harper) that I think there will still be reaction moves that occur once the dust settles on those two.

For instance, if Harper goes to the Dodgers or Cubs, then either team may have some more moves to make. The Dodgers have started clearing their payroll. The Cubs really haven't yet.

The Cubs almost certainly would have to move Heyward plus to make a Harper move work.

 

[Enscheff]

I think Riley is available because Rendon, Arenado and JD will all be available next off season. I fully expect the Braves to be favorites for those guys.

This linchpin of this off season for the Braves is likely Grandal. Once he signs the JTR drama will come to an end, and then the Braves either get Haniger or JTR.

If they fail to get JTR or Haniger I will have to chalk this offseason up as a failure, the degree of which depends on how far down the list of contingencies they go to fill cOF.

 

[Freshmaker]

Wonder how much of Heyward's contract the Cubs would have to pay for us to consider taking him back

 

[Freshmaker]

I think Riley is available because Rendon, Arenado and JD will all be available next off season.

This linchpin of this off season for the Braves is likely Grandal. Once he signs the JTR drama will come to an end, and then the Braves either get Haniger or JTR.

If they fail to get JTR or Haniger I will have to chalk this offseason up as a failure, the degree of which depends on how far down the list of contingencies they go to fill cOF.

Rendon's a Boras client, and SB has already been talking him up so he's going to want the moon. Could see us extenting JD tho if he has a good season

 

[zbhargrove]

I don't think it will be either JTR or Haniger at this point. The Marlins have badly played the JTR deal and are running out of locations. Other teams know this and will dig in even further on their offers. I'm actually a little surprised and maybe dubious that the Braves have offered Riley for him since Donaldson is a one year guy and if they thought Camargo was the long term guy there, then why Donaldson in the first place. I think Miami ends up holding JTR for an in-season trade.

As for Haniger, if Seattle was going to trade him, I think they would have done it by now. I think they will hold him to avoid being historically bad during a rebuild which is one of the worst value sins possible.

I can see a possible Gray trade along with Clint Frazier. But the rhetoric about Gray being a ToR guy coming from the talking heads tells me that the Yankees don't think they have to trade him at all, at least not right now.

So much of this offseason depends on where Harper and Machado end up (especially Harper) that I think there will still be reaction moves that occur once the dust settles on those two.

For instance, if Harper goes to the Dodgers or Cubs, then either team may have some more moves to make. The Dodgers have started clearing their payroll. The Cubs really haven't yet.

The Cubs almost certainly would have to move Heyward plus to make a Harper move work.

Oh I don't know... maybe because he has MVP potential or the 3rd base FA pool next year is stacked?