2018 Offseason And Targets

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If I’m not mistaken, the Dodgers played the service clock game with Bellinger, so he has 5 years of control remaining.

If you consider him a 4 win player now at the age of 23 with a non-zero chance of improving, that’s 20+ wins over those 5 seasons.

Players like him who play a lot of games, hit a lot of HRs and go through arb 4 times make a lot of cash in their controlled years, so estimate he makes $40M-$50M over those 5 seasons.

That’s a surplus value of $150M+, and possibly a significant +. I don’t think it’s realistic to consider Bellinger a trade candidate.

But don’t let a spreadsheet get in the way of your dreams
 
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Hudson2 said:
So Anderson, Pache, Riley, and a lesser piece?
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I could buy $175M as an upper range value for Bellinger.

If the spin rate values are true, the Dodgers have zero interest in Anderson. If AA truly sees Riley as expendable, you can bet the Dodgers aren’t high on him either.

Even if the Dodgers valued those guys as 55s, that’s not even close to $175M.
 
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Dodgers discussing Joc with the White Sox.

I’m guessing this means AA has his hand in that cookie jar too. He is a much more likely trade candidate than Bellinger.
 
Quoth DOB:

#Braves might also be talking to Dodgers about Joc Pederson, who checks several boxes — could bat cleanup (at least vs. RHP), good defense, 2 yrs of affordable control. Not perfect fit (he’s RH), but hits for power vs RHP (24 HR, .556 slug%); could use a RHB (Duvall?) vs LHP.
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Ignore the whole "RH/LH" typo.
 
Enscheff said:
Dodgers discussing Joc with the White Sox.

I’m guessing this means AA has his hand in that cookie jar too. He is a much more likely trade candidate than Bellinger.
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Bellinger ain't happening.

But in some ways Pederson is the ideal player to pick up. 2 years of control left. Projects to be a 3 WAR player. Will not cost a yuge amount, either from a prospect capital or salary perspective. Needs a platoon partner, but we have DuVall, Camargo and maybe Riley to spell him.

Expected surplus value of about 4 WAR in his remaining two years of control. A fair price would be one of Touki, Fried, Wilson, Waters. Plus maybe a third tier prospect.

I'd be willing to overpay a little, meaning include someone a little better than a third tier prospect as the second player. Say one of Wentz, Muller, Allard.
 
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Pederson makes sense. I would like to see him be a more consistent hitter and strike out less, however, no doubt he has ability and would make a good addition. The fact the Dodgers are possibly shopping him leads me to believe they are signing Harper or Pollock soon.
 
I like the Joc idea and his name hasn’t been in the rumor mill. We should be able to trade for him and JTR.
 
Enscheff said:
If I’m not mistaken, the Dodgers played the service clock game with Bellinger, so he has 5 years of control remaining.

If you consider him a 4 win player now at the age of 23 with a non-zero chance of improving, that’s 20+ wins over those 5 seasons.

Players like him who play a lot of games, hit a lot of HRs and go through arb 4 times make a lot of cash in their controlled years, so estimate he makes $40M-$50M over those 5 seasons.

That’s a surplus value of $150M+, and possibly a significant +. I don’t think it’s realistic to consider Bellinger a trade candidate.

But don’t let a spreadsheet get in the way of your dreams
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I figured about 20-25 WAR over the next 5 years and closer 30-40 million in Arby. But yeah, 40-50 million is likely closer.
 
Looks like the Reds are about to overpay for Gray and try to extend him as if paying market rates for FA years makes a player more valuable.

I bet a certain subset of posters around here love what the Reds are doing since they aren’t hampered by silly spreadsheets.
 
Enscheff said:
Looks like the Reds are about to overpay for Gray and try to extend him as if paying market rates for FA years makes a player more valuable.

I bet a certain subset of posters around here love what the Reds are doing since they aren’t hampered by silly spreadsheets.
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Absolutely sucks to be you when you can't bait someone into an argument, doesn't it?
 
From my perspective the "ideal" corner outfield candidate:

1) has 2-3 years of contractual control left

2) projects to 3 or more WAR per season

3) carries a reasonable salary (say in the 5-12M/year range)

4) doesn't have a yuge amount of surplus value, which allows us to acquire him without spending too much prospect capital.

5) hits lefty or is a switch hitter

From the above, my ideal guys are Pederson and Peralta.

Right now it looks like Pederson is the one being made available for his team. Given he checks off the above boxes, I'm ok with a modest overpay.
 
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Southcack77 said:
Braves can’t part with much that would make much sense for LA.

Unlikely trade partner.
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The Dodgers would probably be interested in a near-major league ready guy with options they can park in AAA. Their rotation at the start of the season is Kershaw, Walker, Hill, Ryu and Maeda. But they know they will need a few more starters to get through the season. They like to play the options game with their pitching staff where they are aggressively shuttling players between AAA and the majors.

If they prefer a position player I wouldn't rule out trading Riley or Waters. I'd rather keep Pache.
 
If we can sign a Pollock..I’d rather do that than trade. We have the money. Keep those bullets for when we need them at the deadline.
 
TheBravos said:
If we can sign a Pollock..I’d rather do that than trade. We have the money. Keep those bullets for when we need them at the deadline.
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Brantley went for 2 years at an AAV of 16M.

McCutchen went for 3 years with an AAV of a little over 16M

Pollock will likely exceed them both on years and AAV.
 
nsacpi said:
From my perspective the "ideal" corner outfield candidate:

1) has 2-3 years of contractual control left

2) projects to 3 or more WAR per season

3) carries a reasonable salary (say in the 5-12M/year range)

4) doesn't have a yuge amount of surplus value, which allows us to acquire him without spending too much prospect capital.

5) hits lefty or is a switch hitter

From the above, my ideal guys are Pederson and Peralta.

Right now it looks like Pederson is the one being made available for his team. Given he checks off the above boxes, I'm ok with a modest overpay.
Click to expand...

I can’t disagree with any of that. Joc makes a lot of sense
 
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