2018 Offseason And Targets

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CrazyTrain said:
So far we've only really improved the bench... if that's your idea of a good offseason, I don't know what to tell you.
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This. The net of the position player moves probably cancels themselves out assuming Donaldson is healthy and productive (Donaldson(+), Markakis (-), McCann (-)). Camargo is a plus for the bench. You could argue that you could see additional growth out of Acuna, Albies and Swanson. But, that's always been the case. You could also argue that Inciarte will continue to regress, Flowers will regress and that Freeman will plateau. The lineup isn't significantly better.

And the rotation is pretty much entirely reliant on improvement from the youngsters, enough to overcome the loss of Anibal.

The pen is essentially unchanged.

And it was a 90 win season built on top of bizarre circumstances, primarily the complete faceplant exhibited by the gNats and Mets.
 
Super said:
wanna bet that major league stars aren't even close to *going to japan to play*?
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You gotta work on that comprehension thing. It was an "if" "then" comment. The "if" hasn't happened, and in my opinion won't, so there is no "then" at this time. But, if "then" occurs, let's talk.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
This. The net of the position player moves probably cancels themselves out assuming Donaldson is healthy and productive (Donaldson(+), Markakis (-), McCann (-)). Camargo is a plus for the bench. You could argue that you could see additional growth out of Acuna, Albies and Swanson. But, that's always been the case. You could also argue that Inciarte will continue to regress, Flowers will regress and that Freeman will plateau. The lineup isn't significantly better.

And the rotation is pretty much entirely reliant on improvement from the youngsters, enough to overcome the loss of Anibal.

The pen is essentially unchanged.

And it was a 90 win season built on top of bizarre circumstances, primarily the complete faceplant exhibited by the gNats and Mets.
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donaldson is a much bigger potential improvement than the step "down" to mccann and down to old markakis. mccann could easily be as valuable as suzuki was last year, especially if you factor in framing and the ability to now actually platoon your catchers.
you'll have acuña all year.
but really, donaldson alone improves 2 spots greatly. i think mccann and suzuki will be a wash, with markakis likely returning to a 1-WAR player.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
You gotta work on that comprehension thing. It was an "if" "then" comment. The "if" hasn't happened, and in my opinion won't, so there is no "then" at this time. But, if "then" occurs, let's talk.
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So your view is that if a freshman congressman from New York somehow manages to dramatically overhaul the tax code, that the best baseball players in the world are going to head to the Japanese league? LOL.

And this is something that baseball players signing contracts now should seriously take into consideration?
 
Enscheff said:
Agents are about 5 years behind teams in terms of accurately valuing players, and it is a significant contributing factor in these painfully slow off seasons.
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You may be right. It could be more of an issue of agents not believing that teams would accurately value players, because they didn't in the past. A-Rod, Pujols, BJ Upton and others have been instructive to the owners/management.
 
Super said:
lol, what? do you even read what you say?
the braves improved 3B, adding a potentially HUGE player, and greatly improved the bench in the process.
there's also likely to be organic improvement due to being a very young team.
i'm still waiting to hear why the braves pitching will be "terrible" this year.
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So, you're just going to assume that JD is healthy and will be better than Camargo was in 2018? IMO, until we know what JD is right now, that is a lateral move. He could be great, but he also could be battling calf injuries the entire year like he did in 2018. He's 33. Expecting him to be an upgrade isn't a forgone conclusion. No question that pushing Camargo to the bench upgrades arguably 2018's weakest area.

I'm sure there will be organic improvement of the team, specifically with guys like Albies & Swanson. Nick will be worse. Catcher is hard to predict, but I don't think we have as good of offensive stats from that position this year. Flowers another year older and very hard to know what Mac will do.

The pitching staff will be worse without Anibal. It's hard to bank on a lot of improvement from Folty, given how great he was last year. I believe Newk is who he was in the 2nd half and not the first. Maybe Soroka can take a huge step forward and provide Anibal's value, but that's a big ask. How does Teheran respond to riding the pine in the playoffs last year?

Who do you pencil in for the final two spots?

At this point, we are worse on paper in the rotation, that was middle of the road last year as it was.

Why do you think there will be some huge improvement?
 
Super said:
donaldson is a much bigger potential improvement than the step "down" to mccann and down to old markakis. mccann could easily be as valuable as suzuki was last year, especially if you factor in framing and the ability to now actually platoon your catchers.
you'll have acuña all year.
but really, donaldson alone improves 2 spots greatly. i think mccann and suzuki will be a wash, with markakis likely returning to a 1-WAR player.
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Please explain to me how JD GREATLY improves a position that was occupied by a 24 year old player who just posted a 3+ WAR season?
 
Horsehide Harry said:
This. The net of the position player moves probably cancels themselves out assuming Donaldson is healthy and productive (Donaldson(+), Markakis (-), McCann (-)). Camargo is a plus for the bench. You could argue that you could see additional growth out of Acuna, Albies and Swanson. But, that's always been the case. You could also argue that Inciarte will continue to regress, Flowers will regress and that Freeman will plateau. The lineup isn't significantly better.

And the rotation is pretty much entirely reliant on improvement from the youngsters, enough to overcome the loss of Anibal.

The pen is essentially unchanged.

And it was a 90 win season built on top of bizarre circumstances, primarily the complete faceplant exhibited by the gNats and Mets.
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I don't think catcher is a given to be a net downgrade.

McCann and Suzuki weren't all that dissimilar last year...especially when framing is added to the equation. Both are old.

I'd still prefer to add Realmuto if the price makes sense, but a McCann/Flowers platoon probably wouldn't be much if any worse than Suzuki/Flowers.
 
CrazyTrain said:
So, you're just going to assume that JD is healthy and will be better than Camargo was in 2018? IMO, until we know what JD is right now, that is a lateral move. He could be great, but he also could be battling calf injuries the entire year like he did in 2018. He's 33. Expecting him to be an upgrade isn't a forgone conclusion. No question that pushing Camargo to the bench upgrades arguably 2018's weakest area.

I'm sure there will be organic improvement of the team, specifically with guys like Albies & Swanson. Nick will be worse. Catcher is hard to predict, but I don't think we have as good of offensive stats from that position this year. Flowers another year older and very hard to know what Mac will do.

The pitching staff will be worse without Anibal. It's hard to bank on a lot of improvement from Folty, given how great he was last year. I believe Newk is who he was in the 2nd half and not the first. Maybe Soroka can take a huge step forward and provide Anibal's value, but that's a big ask. How does Teheran respond to riding the pine in the playoffs last year?

Who do you pencil in for the final two spots?

At this point, we are worse on paper in the rotation, that was middle of the road last year as it was.

Why do you think there will be some huge improvement?
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donaldson is an MVP level player.
camargo likely over-performed last year and wouldn't put up 3.3 WAR again. in any event, yes, i'd take the over on that for donaldson.
folty can put up around the same type of season. a full year of gausman, who i know you (very intelligently, i may add), believe had control issues as a Brave. multiple prospects more ready than last year. anibal was good last year...but he pitched 136.2 innings with a 2.4 WAR. that's hardly irreplaceable considering all the prospects available.
 
CrazyTrain said:
Please explain to me how JD GREATLY improves a position that was occupied by a 24 year old player who just posted a 3+ WAR season?
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please, i beg you, read. thoroughly.
camargo overperformed. he was not likely to put up 3.3 WAR again.
donaldson is an MVP level player. i'll take the over on that from him. by a good margin if he plays 120+.
 
Adding statcorners pitch framing runs ou get Flowers at 1.7 WAR and Suzuki at 0.3 (they really don't like Suzuki). Mac was at 0.2 WAR after a really poor year offensively.

So I guess it depends how much stock you put into publically available pitch framing. And like the debate between DRS and UZR the numbers from statcast and baseball prospectus don't always align either. They show Flowers being super elite with Suzuki not being super bad.

The real key will be Flowers assuming JTR is not traded for. He will need to have the bulk of the playing time and not regress any further offenisvley. If that happens the Braves will be just fine at catcher.
 
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