2018 Offseason And Targets
- Thread starter clvclv
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Calling it either successful or unsuccessful at this point is entirely dependent on exactly what "the plan" actually is, and just how committed AA and Snit are to following it.
IF they're serious about using some of the young arms in the pen, signing Kimbrel's not a "must" IMO. Viz and Minter have done enough to prove they can handle the job when healthy, O'Day's perfectly capable of handling high-leverage innings, and I think Sobotka's capable of taking a step forward as well. We could have a dominant R/L shutdown pair in Touki and Minter, but will they actually commit to using Touki in that role rather than continue to milk value from him in a SP role when we have plenty of other options? I think the more likely situation is that Kimbrel's asking price drops to 3/$45 million and he comes home - is it the "best use of resources"? Of course not - but I think AA and McGuirk are deservedly feeling the heat over the lack of activity given the resources they have to improve the team, and a Kimbrel signing would certainly help them smooth over lots of fans' hurt feelings. If the national media (Rosenthal, MLB Network guys, etc.) wasn't also holding their feet to the fire I could see things left as-is until the deadline - it's not like they've ever done things in the past when the only criticism was coming from DOB/Bowman/local talk radio and they could get away with crying poor.
While it likely pushes the payroll to the limit early on and eats up the "dry powder" that's left, I'd like to see Keuchel (3/$45 million) and Marwin (3/$27 million) signed and Duvall and Freeman cut loose. Getting rid of Duvall and Freeman accounts for half of what you'd be paying Gonzalez in 2019, and there's plenty of money (as others mentioned when discussing a potential Kimbrel signing, O'Day and Julio plus Vizcaino) coming off the books next winter, so that number for Keuchel shouldn't be a tough fit.
Culberson gets cut loose next winter when he stands to make more money, leaving you with two switch-hitters (Camargo and Gonzalez) as your main super-subs/pinch-hitters. At that point you should have Riley as an every day option to replace Donaldson OR Markakis and might have Pache as your 4th OF/defensive replacement for Riley.
The Keuchel addition "fixes" the rotation moving forward without having to give up any of the arms AA seems so scared to deal and keeps you from drastically overpaying to go get an "Ace" at the deadline. The 2019 rotation becomes Folty, Keuchel, Gausman, Newcomb, Julio with Soroka/Wright/Gohara phasing Julio out while Touki and Fried become serious pen weapons. The 2020 rotation becomes Folty, Keuchel, Soroka, Newcomb/Gohara, Wright with Anderson, Wilson, Wentz, and Muller waiting in the wings and Gausman as trade bait or cut loose to save money.
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striker42
Well-known member
I don't think the comparison of what Kimbrel would do compared to what Minter would do tells the whole story when thinking about signing him. It's not just that Kimbrel will slam the door on a couple games Minter would let get away. It's the fact that everyone shifts down a slot.
You have the improvement of Kimbrel over Minter. You have the improvement of Minter over Viz. You have Viz over guys like Sobotka and Biddle. You don't just improve in the 9th.
A more accurate way of comparing the improvement isn't Kimbrel over Minter, it's Kimbrel over the last guy in the pen that we'd otherwise be forced to give innings to. That's a huge jump.
Is it worth the money? Maybe, maybe not. But it certainly makes us a better team.
You have the improvement of Kimbrel over Minter. You have the improvement of Minter over Viz. You have Viz over guys like Sobotka and Biddle. You don't just improve in the 9th.
A more accurate way of comparing the improvement isn't Kimbrel over Minter, it's Kimbrel over the last guy in the pen that we'd otherwise be forced to give innings to. That's a huge jump.
Is it worth the money? Maybe, maybe not. But it certainly makes us a better team.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
NBA players have no problem getting max dollars, NFL QB's have no issue getting 30+ a year.
Yet we're what, 3+ months into free agency and the top 2 FA's are still left unsigned for now, as well as a HOF closer and one of the best pitchers in baseball in Keuchel. There will for sure be something different in the next CBA. Players deserve so much better.
striker42
Well-known member
I think the biggest problem is the lack of parity in MLB. The large market teams outspend the small market teams to such an extent that it's ridiculous. This requires small market teams to frequently rebuild and shoot for windows when they have quality players that are cheap. It's the only way for them to compete with teams with payrolls two to three times larger.
So at any given time you have a third to half of major league teams rebuilding and who it would make no sense for them to sign a big time player. Of the teams that are competing, half of them still don't have the payroll space for a massive contract.
Then, of the teams that have the money, you have to have a team with a need. Why would a team with an all star closer sign Kimbrel?
It's hard to get a bidding war going to get top dollar when you have so few legitimate suitors.
Ultimately baseball has to find a way get more parity in the league. More teams competing will mean more teams willing to spend money for free agents. I only see this happening if baseball somehow figures out a way to limit the disparity in payrolls between teams.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Yes and they will need to fill 3 rotation spots by then via free agents. Plus Hoskins will be arb and they will need a catcher. **** going to get real expensive at year 3. And that is me giving them the benefit the Bohm will pan out at third. Not to mention the pen.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I meant sports wise genius.
But teams are being much more smarter about contracts now, there arent any 10-12 year deals anymore. Teams are going for higher AAV in shorter deals or a high AAV on a 1-yr deal.
Although like striker said, you just dont have a ton of teams spending anymore which causes a lack of bidding wars for players.
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Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
No argument here from me on this, that's the main issue, lot of teams just aint spending anymore. It's a big problem. Not sure MLB ever goes to a cap where every team has the same payroll but it would help the FA problem.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Far more expensive to build with free agents than with drafting and development. If you have to pay $9m/WAR, why not find that player for $550k? Also, younger players are availing themselves of data-driven analytics sooner, so it's easier to find younger, better developed players than ever. It keeps your window open longer.
The optimal resource blend will always include a few free agent dollars, but they've been overpaid for a while now. It's never been less efficient to acquire players through free agency, and it's never been easier to measure.
striker42
Well-known member
I personally prefer the idea of a salary cap and a salary floor. Teams have to spend within a certain range. I'd do this in conjunction with giving the players union revenue sharing money to distribute to compensate for what would be less money overall being paid out under payrolls.
I don't see that happening though.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Those players aren’t getting 8-10 year guaranteed deals.
Those are dumb contracts on their face.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Salary floor/cap would squeeze better players and incentive shorter deals. Probably encourage more teams to be decent.
Says he knows the organization and staff better (although apparently still not well enough to trade anyone away).
Tougher division.
Donaldson - experience, off-field contributions were huge consideration (sounds a bit like groundwork for what a great "extra coach" he'll be if he gets hurt).
Mac - better than Zook.
NL East reminds him of old AL East.
Gee, Gammons really asks the tough questions these days.
Tougher division.
Donaldson - experience, off-field contributions were huge consideration (sounds a bit like groundwork for what a great "extra coach" he'll be if he gets hurt).
Mac - better than Zook.
NL East reminds him of old AL East.
Gee, Gammons really asks the tough questions these days.
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
So you are a greedy MLB player aplologist now? These long contacts have not worked out well for the teams in the past. Miggy and Pujols did/are not aging well. Teams need to be smarter when handing out mega deals like those. MLB contracts are fully guaranteed unlike NFL. It’s gross to think these entitled guys who play a game are somehow being wronged.
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
Teams don’t want to just toss money away on a lengthy deal that is going to a bad investment halfway through. Players are entitled to want as much money they can get, but there isn’t a rule that owners have to meet the exceeding salary demand from players.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I agree that teams are being smarter now with contracts which is why you dont see these long 10 year deals anymore.
lol both can be true.
compared to the amount of money generated by teams, mostly to go into the owner's pockets, MLB players deserve more of it. i'd argue they should get more as minor leaguers and in their early years than they currently do. this should have always been the case, but especially now with the way the market is turning against long-term deals for even younger players.
it's understandable for teams to be wary of long-term deals these days. they pretty much never end up in the franchise's favor. it's also crazy mike trout made between $500K and $1M while being a perennial MVP candidate. he was worth far, far more than that.
Sports wise? The NBA is a superstar driven league. One piece can change a franchise. A franchise QB is pretty close to a necessity in the NFL. Surrounding your superstars in these two leagues with complimentary players seems to be the preferred formula. It has never appeared to be the preferred formula in MLB. Ten years/$30+ for someone who may move the needle but not change the trajectory of the franchise? Not sure they ‘deserve better.’
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