2018 Offseason And Targets
- Thread starter clvclv
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I think some team would offer 3/40 or somewhere thereabouts, but I think he's looking for the big contract or a higher AAV on a 1 year deal. If we offered 1/18 million with a 2nd year option at a cheaper rate, maybe that would entice him.
One year deal “could” net us a pick back if he has a great year.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
nope
A player can't be offered a qualifying offer twice. Braves get nothing but his production and the appreciation of Braves fans everywhere if we sign him.
Tapate50
Well-known member
And the donation of a draft pick/pool space back to mlb
Baseball King
Creepy Lurking Stalker
Kimbrel is 60 innings of great pitching. How is that not valuable?
Because you don't know it'll be great pitching. His Ks went down, BBs went up and velocity went down last year.
That's not someone I'm willing to forfeit our second-round pick to sign, especially with our international signing limitations.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
A few years ago Kimbrel was a 2+ WAR player.
Now he is more a 1.5 WAR player and will probably not even be that in 2-3 years.
He and his agent wanted to be paid the market rate for a 2 WAR player for five years. They obviously were not being realistic.
Suppose we pay him the going rate for a 1 WAR player this season (about 8M). That would still not represent great value for the club. We need to take into account the loss of the pick, which is worth the equivalent of about 1 WAR. So when you add the loss of the pick and the salary we are paying him the equivalent of 2 WAR. Not a great value for a player who projects at 1.5 WAR in 2019. And I'm all about value. As is AA.
Kimbrel and his agent have badly miscalculated. They should have taken the QO.
Now he is more a 1.5 WAR player and will probably not even be that in 2-3 years.
He and his agent wanted to be paid the market rate for a 2 WAR player for five years. They obviously were not being realistic.
Suppose we pay him the going rate for a 1 WAR player this season (about 8M). That would still not represent great value for the club. We need to take into account the loss of the pick, which is worth the equivalent of about 1 WAR. So when you add the loss of the pick and the salary we are paying him the equivalent of 2 WAR. Not a great value for a player who projects at 1.5 WAR in 2019. And I'm all about value. As is AA.
Kimbrel and his agent have badly miscalculated. They should have taken the QO.
striker42
Well-known member
I'm less worried about Kimbrel's decline than some here. Relief pitchers' numbers tend to fluctuate. A guy can have a down year and then rattle off 3 awesome years, fall of a cliff and be terrible for two years, then figure something out and be good again. So I'm not going to read last year as the start of a decline.
I still think some people want to compare him to Minter and not see it as a huge upgrade. But it's not Minter he'd be replacing. Kimbrel would take the closer role and that would shift Minter to the 8th. That in turn would shift Viz to the 7th. And so on. Kimbrel's actually replacing the last man (or more likely a rotating list for that spot) in the pen. It's 60 innings of Kimbrel instead of 60 innings going to a scrub or innings where you try to get a little more out of a starter.
I still think some people want to compare him to Minter and not see it as a huge upgrade. But it's not Minter he'd be replacing. Kimbrel would take the closer role and that would shift Minter to the 8th. That in turn would shift Viz to the 7th. And so on. Kimbrel's actually replacing the last man (or more likely a rotating list for that spot) in the pen. It's 60 innings of Kimbrel instead of 60 innings going to a scrub or innings where you try to get a little more out of a starter.
It's ok to recognize he's is likely declining a bit, but let's not go overboard. 2018 Kimbrel is still one of the best closers ever. 13.9 k/9 is consistent with his numbers from 2013-2016. His velocity is down from what it was a couple years ago, but it's still higher than it was earlier in his career. BB rates fluctuate with relievers too.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
he has to be priced as a certain type of player...do you price him at a 2 WAR player? a 1.5 WAR player?...it's all good and well to say I'm less worried about his decline than others...but those who are bullish on Kimbrel should come out and say where they price him at and how many years they are willing to go out
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
2018 Kimbrel was a 1.5 WAR player...that draft pick we give up is worth about 1 WAR...the math is rather unpleasant for anyone wanting to make the case we should sign Kimbrel
This.
I'm still not a huge proponent of signing him to a short-term deal and giving up the pick, but I'm not so overly concerned about the value of the deal being a perfect fit. If he'd sign a reasonable 3 year deal (say $13 million per), I'd be OK with it because it wouldn't be so much about him being a little overpriced as it would be about sliding everyone down a notch and eliminating the weakest link in the pen. Being able to finally say goodbye to guys like Jackson or Carle wouldn't hurt many people's feelings IMO - plus you'd be able to send Sobotka down whenever he's having control issues.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
So if we sign Kimbrel for 13M what impact do you think that has on our ability to do mid-season acquisitions.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Your estimation of the value of the 60th pick seems high.
This has been a year of people claiming teams and players had grossly miscalculated value and would end up unhappy and yet just about every player has realized the reasonable market projections coming into the offseason.
I suspect there is still a market for Kimbrel.
I don't think he'll be a Brave, but he would make the Braves a better team. I don't have a whole lot of concern about his effectiveness or decline, but it doesn't really make a ton of sense for the Braves to be the high bid on a closer given the rest of this offseason.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
here's a study of the value of draft picks
https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/
I think the reasonable market value for Kimbrel is that of a 1.5 win player...maybe a little more....17M if he is willing to do a 1 year deal, around 14-15M for a 3 year deal...I think that kind of deal is what has been available to him
if we sign him for 15M what do you think happens to our ability to make mid-season moves
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Southcack77
Well-known member
It should be mentioned that Kimbrell was a 3.3 win player in 2017. It hasn't been five years.
his issue seems maybe to have been a lost of fastball command last year more than anything else. Overall, he just wasn't as good in the second half, but that's a fairly small sample for a reliever.
his issue seems maybe to have been a lost of fastball command last year more than anything else. Overall, he just wasn't as good in the second half, but that's a fairly small sample for a reliever.
last year's kimbrel was not one of the best closers ever.
I really don't think WAR properly values relievers. A couple of really bad outings can really tank your overall WAR.
I do know the difference in a great closer and a bad closer can make a significant difference over the course of the year.
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