2018 Offseason And Targets

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Southcack77 said:
It should be mentioned that Kimbrell was a 3.3 win player in 2017. It hasn't been five years.

his issue seems maybe to have been a lost of fastball command last year more than anything else. Overall, he just wasn't as good in the second half, but that's a fairly small sample for a reliever.
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1.2 and 1.5 before that. Seems that's more his baseline these days.
 
Super said:
1.2 and 1.5 before that. Seems that's more his baseline these days.
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yes...i think most teams are valuing him at about 1.5 WAR

so let me ask of those who claim to be bullish on Kimbrel...what do you value him at...so far my question has been met with deafening silence
 
Carp said:
I really don't think WAR properly values relievers. A couple of really bad outings can really tank your overall WAR.

I do know the difference in a great closer and a bad closer can make a significant difference over the course of the year.
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so tell me what you value him at...2 WAR? 2.5 WAR?

do you think his performance at the end of last year is affecting whether teams view him as a great closer
 
kimbrel is being screwed by the compensation pick problem. no one wants to sign him and give up that pick. he may have been smart to just take the QO. hindsight is 20/20, tho. i think it's possible to have had foresight on that, but that's besides the point. no one wants to pay him $15M for 2+ years while also losing a pick. he'd make every single team better. but at the combined cost, it's not worth it, IMO, for the braves to sign him for even, say, 1 year $13M.
 
nsacpi said:
yes...i think most teams are valuing him at about 1.5 WAR

so let me ask of those who claim to be bullish on Kimbrel...what do you value him at...so far my question has been met with deafening silence
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If kimbrel is effective dont you think it lessens the need to upgrade at midseason?
 
Super said:
last year's kimbrel was not one of the best closers ever.
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Not one of the best years for a closer ever. Just saying if you averaged out those numbers over the course of a career, it would still be elite production.

Point being, he's still producing at an elite level, even if 2018 wasn't his usual best closer ever style of performance we're accustomed to seeing.
 
Super said:
kimbrel is being screwed by the compensation pick problem. no one wants to sign him and give up that pick. he may have been smart to just take the QO. hindsight is 20/20, tho. i think it's possible to have had foresight on that, but that's besides the point. no one wants to pay him $15M for 2+ years while also losing a pick. he'd make every single team better. but at the combined cost, it's not worth it, IMO, for the braves to sign him for even, say, 1 year $13M.
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oh i think he has had offers for 15M for 2-3 years....that's not why he is still unsigned

heck Zach Britton got 3 years at 13M AAV....Familia got 3 years at 10M AAV
 
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Carp said:
Not one of the best years for a closer ever. Just saying if you averaged out those numbers over the course of a career, it would still be elite production.

Point being, he's still producing at an elite level, even if 2018 wasn't his usual best closer ever style of performance we're accustomed to seeing.
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he's performed at an elite level 1 of the last 4 seasons.
 
nsacpi said:
oh i think he has had offers for 15M for 2-3 years....that's not why he is still unsigned

heck Zach Britton got 3 years at 13M AAV....Familia got 3 years at 10M AAV
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they don't have QOs attached to them. i seemed to already forget how much britton got which is just..crazy to me. so he probably does have those offers. and if he has a 3/45 offer and isn't taking it? good luck craig.
 
nsacpi said:
here's a study of the value of draft picks

https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

I think the reasonable market value for Kimbrel is that of a 1.5 win player...maybe a little more....17M if he is willing to do a 1 year deal, around 14-15M for a 3 year deal...I think that kind of deal is what has been available to him
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I think the data I've seen shows a expected surplus of something more like a half win for something like the 60th pick.

Signing a player like Kimbrel expresses a certain intention. If that is your intention then the pick should not hold things up if you can get the cash right. The pick is really a quite modest value.

But please don't make me into a Kimbrel advocate. While I do not have any real concerns about his value as a near elite closer, I do question whether it is the right move for the Braves. He would make them better, but the money would have to work.
 
Not to interject, but I think some of his issue last year was he discovered he was tipping pitches. I think that could be considered an outlier, but it doesn't change anything for me.

His demands\cost (with the pick included, and our free $ available) won't mesh I don't believe.

I think the pen will be a pleasant surprise this season.

Losing that second round pick AND pool $ is definitely in this front offices mind.
 
Southcack77 said:
I think the data I've seen shows a expected surplus of something more like a half win for something like the 60th pick.

Signing a player like Kimbrel expresses a certain intention. If that is your intention then the pick should not hold things up if you can get the cash right. The pick is really a quite modest value.
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what data?
 
Tapate50 said:
Not to interject, but I think some of his issue last year was he discovered he was tipping pitches. I think that could be considered an outlier, but it doesn't change anything for me.

His demands\cost (with the pick included, and our free $ available) won't mesh I don't believe.

I think the pen will be a pleasant surprise this season.
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2017 looks like the outlier.
walks were down and Ks were up.
other recent years haven't been like that.
 
Super said:
they don't have QOs attached to them. i seemed to already forget how much britton got which is just..crazy to me. so he probably does have those offers. and if he has a 3/45 offer and isn't taking it? good luck craig.
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for sure...my point though is that Kimbrel very likely has had offers similar to or better than Britton's even accounting for the draft pick...he is not signed because he has declined those offers...so far...i think a team like the phillies will give him 15-16M for 3 years and give up the pick (which for them won't be a second round pick)...we should NOT be thinking about trying to compete with that or with the offers he likely has been sitting on for some time
 
thethe said:
It kind of does since the answer to your question is obvious based on self imposed resource constraints.
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it evades my question...i've asked two questions in this discussion

1) What do you value Kimbrel at

2) What effect would signing Kimbrel have on our ability to make mid-season moves

please feel free to answer either
 
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