That's generally because the better relievers are the ones closing.
2018 Offseason And Targets
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That's generally because the better relievers are the ones closing.
GMs know Kimbrel will more than likely regress each year for the rest of his career (with maybe a one year blip somewhere along the way).
He will still be good, but not the closer he was. You “could” get lucky and he out performs...but doubtful.
I would like to have him in saying that. If he was young Kimbrel...he would already have his deal.
He will still be good, but not the closer he was. You “could” get lucky and he out performs...but doubtful.
I would like to have him in saying that. If he was young Kimbrel...he would already have his deal.
striker42
Well-known member
Relievers are weird. A lot of times they don't have normal regression curves. Look at Wagner's career for example. His numbers fluctuated in his 30's but he was still incredibly solid up until he retired. Then you have K-Rod's up and down career.
Kimbrel might be in decline but you can't count on that for a reliever to the same extent you can for starters.
Southcack77
Well-known member
It's a little weird to apply the average case to a known outlier, but in general relievers age pretty shabbily in comparison to starters.
But also pretty easy to fall into just picking out the anecdotal cases of survivors who remained elite or near elite to the end of their careers.
I certainly agree that we can all think of long time closers who maintained dominance to the end of their careers. If we think harder about it, we can probably remember as many dominant closers who did not.
But the near HOF level guys do tend to stand out.
I'm not sure it's quite as bad as saying all successful 90 mph lefties are Tom Glavine, but could probably benefit from more specific study.
Southcack77
Well-known member
At some point it becomes a distinction without a difference perhaps?
Clearly because they produce more wins
Aging curve for BP arms looks a lot like the aging curve for starters.
Anecdotal evidence is not something teams rely upon.
Wonder if Sox reliever getting suspended for PEDs makes them reconsider bringing Kimbs back.
They have different roles, and thus their usage is much different than a regular reliever. Kimbrel can't control his usage. Has nothing to do with saves.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
ok man. go ahead and judge "closers" different than other RP just because they have that label.
striker42
Well-known member
Of course relievers have the same aging curve as pretty much everyone else. That's just the human body. What I said was "A lot of times" you have guys that don't follow the normal curves. Relievers are more unpredictable and their numbers can fluctuate.
Here's the only point I've been trying to make. It's foolish to put too much weight on any one year for a reliever. Kimbrel last year is something to be aware of but it's not conclusive proof he's in decline.
To illustrate, in 2015 Kimbrel saw his FIP jump nearly a point with a jump in HR rate and drop in K rate. In 2106, Kimbrel saw his FIP go up again with his BB rate skyrocketing. Then in 2017, he turned in the best year of his career. He had one of the best K rates of his career and the lowest BB rate by far. Then last year he fell back to earth a bit with his K rate returning to close what would be considered normal for him, his BB rate jumping back up over 4 per 9, and his HR rate hitting a career high.
Is it possible last year was a sign that Kimbrel is in decline? Absolutely. But his numbers last year could also just be part of his normal fluctuations from year to year.
I think a big part of last year's decline for Kimbrel was more of a regression to the mean. His 2017 was a bit of an outlier and his 2018 was more in line with what he'd been doing since in recent years.
I think he will be a good pitcher, but not the pitcher he was at his peak. His performance will likely drop each year. It’s possible he could spike back up, but it’s more likely he doesn’t. If he does...coming on a one/two “prove it” type deal would be the best chance of that happening.
He will be very lucky to get even a four or five year deal.
He will be very lucky to get even a four or five year deal.
Southcack77
Well-known member
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Millions and teenagers don’t always mix well
kiley or eric on of the chats said he spoke to someone in an org who said "he's not a prospect." also said this in their blurb:
"We have Maitan here on pedigree, as pro socuts outside the org who had no context for their eval barely considered him a prospect last year."
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
So far at least, none of the international guys the Braves lost as punishment appear to be anything.
I feel two ways about that: relief from a what might have been POV and alarm that the scouts could whiff that badly on that many and had to cheat (getting caught) to do it.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
a lot of these high profile international signings are identified as 13 and 14 year olds if not younger...kids go through puberty at different ages and I think a lot of the players that stand out at that age do so because they have matured faster physically than their cohorts...obviously they all have talent and skill...but at that age it is hard to sift out how much is talent, how much is skill and how much is early physical maturation...a good scout ideally should give a kid bonus points if it is obvious he has a lot of skill but hasn't gone through puberty yet...but i'm not sure that's how it works
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