2018 Offseason And Targets

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nsacpi said:
so tell me what you value him at...2 WAR? 2.5 WAR?

do you think his performance at the end of last year is affecting whether teams view him as a great closer
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Again, I don't think WAR is a good measuring point for relievers. Closers pretty much only pitch in high leverage situations. So its hard to answer that.
 
Carp said:
Again, I don't think WAR is a good measuring point for relievers. Closers pretty much only pitch in high leverage situations. So its hard to answer that.
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I understand. I was asking what valuation you had in mind that took into account the unique aspects of being a closer.
 
Carp said:
How bout stats?

Since 2015 among closers with at least 100 innings

2nd in Saves
2nd in Ks
2nd in K/9
3rd in BABIP
3rd in SIERA
4th in WAR (which again, I don't like for relievers, but still)
4th in FIP
5th in xFIP

Pretty sure I read where his BAA is one of the lowest all time as well, but I can't seem to find such info on FG.

Pretty much everything points to him being elite over this time.
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nothing like 1 outlier year to skew the stats of a 4-year sample. he was only "elite" that one year..as i said.

the other three years:

2015: 20th WAR, 26th FIP, 9th xFIP, 5th k/9, 92nd BB/9, 57th BABIP (not even sure why this is being used, but OK)
2016: 29th WAR, 28th FIP, 40th FIP, 4th k/9, 132nd bb/9, 17th BABIP
2018: 22nd WAR, 46th FIP, 26th xFIP, 7th k/9, 24th BB/9, 4th BABIP

so when you take it year-by-year, as you would do when comparing who was elite in which years, kimbrel was decidedly not elite in any of the above years.
 
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Enscheff said:
Kimbrel isn't signed because his agent came out asking for something like 6/100. Teams obviously balked at that, and then spent their money elsewhere. It is perfectly reasonable for Kimbrel to expect to beat the Wade David deal of 3/52, but now there aren't any teams with enough payroll space to afford that.

In short, Kimbrel's agent screwed up, same as Keuchel's (who was also asking for $100M+).

The value of elite BP arms is mostly gained in the postseason. In the regular season, a BP arm pitches roughly 4% of a team's innings. In the postseason the same elite BP arm is pitching roughly 10%-20% of a team's innings. This is why WAR is a bad measure of the value a BP arm contributes to a play off contender, and why we are seeing the $/WAR value for BP arms being roughly double that of position players and starting pitchers.
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How much of an adjustment would you make for someone like Kimbrel. Add .5 or 1 WAR to his fangraph number?
 
Enscheff said:
Now...probably not. No contenders have that kind of payroll space left.

Had he came into the offseason with realistic expectations of the market, he could have certainly gotten something like 3/50+ with a 4th option that pushed the guaranteed money a bit higher.
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yeah, i'm here. i don't think kimbrel even has the high dollar offers anymore.

and i'm still pretty uninterested in signing him for one year at high $ amount.

maybe waiting until the comp pick is gone would actually benefit him. teams would like to have him for later in the season and wouldn't lose the pick. he'll probably get a better deal then than now.
 
Super said:
nothing like 1 outlier year to skew the stats of a 4-year sample. he was only "elite" that one year..as i said.

the other three years:

2015: 20th WAR, 26th FIP, 9th xFIP, 5th k/9, 92nd BB/9, 57th BABIP (not even sure why this is being used, but OK)
2016: 29th WAR, 28th FIP, 40th FIP, 4th k/9, 132nd bb/9, 17th BABIP
2018: 22nd WAR, 46th FIP, 26th xFIP, 7th k/9, 24th BB/9, 4th BABIP

so when you take it year-by-year, as you would do when comparing who was elite in which years, kimbrel was decidedly not elite in any of the above years.
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You're comparing Kimbrel to non closers, which is dumb.
 
nsacpi said:
How much of an adjustment would you make for someone like Kimbrel. Add .5 or 1 WAR to his fangraph number?
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50% premium seems about right on market valuation.

If you want to value him at 1.5 WAR, he probably should get somewhere between 16-19 AAV. Market.
 
Enscheff said:
Now...probably not. No contenders have that kind of payroll space left.

Had he came into the offseason with realistic expectations of the market, he could have certainly gotten something like 3/50+ with a 4th option that pushed the guaranteed money a bit higher.
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My agent would be let go...like a couple of weeks ago.
 
Enscheff said:
The FA market has been valuing impact BP arms at about a 2x premium compared to position players and starting pitchers.
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Seems a little steep.

Soria got 15M over 2 years. He's a 2 WAR player over that period easy. A's got a bargain.

Familia got 30M over 3 years. He's around a 2.5 WAR player over than period. So here we have a premium over market but more like 50% than 2x

Britton got 39M over 3 years. Hard to say with him because of recent health. But I think he's around 2.5 WAR player over 3 years. Close to that 2x premium

Robertson got 23M guaranteed over 2 years. He's probably a 2 WAR player over that period. So a premium but more like 50%.

There are probably some others this off-season I can't remember. But it seems more like a 50% premium.

I think we are paying market or more if we value Kimbrel over 2 WAR (16-17M per year). I'd be ok with going about 14M/year for 2-3 years. It seems to me the Braves are in the driver's seat here. If he says he wants more than Britton, his agent can give him a tutorial on state and local taxes in GA vs NY.
 
nsacpi said:
Seems a little steep.

Soria got 15M over 2 years. He's a 2 WAR player over that period easy. A's got a bargain.

Familia got 30M over 3 years. He's around a 2.5 WAR player over than period. So here we have a premium over market but more like 50% than 2x

Britton got 39M over 3 years. Hard to say with him because of recent health. But I think he's around 2.5 WAR player over 3 years. Close to that 2x premium

Robertson got 23M guaranteed over 2 years. He's probably a 2 WAR player over that period. So a premium but more like 50%.

There are probably some others this off-season I can't remember. But it seems more like a 50% premium.

I think we are paying market or more if we value Kimbrel over 2 WAR (16-17M per year). I'd be ok with going about 14M/year for 2-3 years. It seems to me the Braves are in the driver's seat here. If he says he wants more than Britton, his agent can give him a tutorial on state and local taxes in GA vs NY.
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I'm going to pass on the anecdotal evidence in favor of this data:

https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/

Since 2006, the cost of a win for starting pitchers is $4.2 million and $5.7 million for position players, but for relief pitchers, the price is $10.9 million.

Teams are only in a position to get extreme value with Kimbrel now because his agent messed up.

A 3/50+ contract was perfectly reasonable for him had his agent performed competently. I'm not going to bother with hypothetical scenarios where the Braves sign him because this situation is too odd to make an intelligent prediction. Kimbrel is currently benefiting from the fact that he can ramp up into regular season form rather quickly, and as soon as a contender loses an impact BP arm he might see his market open up.
 
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nsacpi said:
Seems a little steep.

Soria got 15M over 2 years. He's a 2 WAR player over that period easy. A's got a bargain.

Familia got 30M over 3 years. He's around a 2.5 WAR player over than period. So here we have a premium over market but more like 50% than 2x

Britton got 39M over 3 years. Hard to say with him because of recent health. But I think he's around 2.5 WAR player over 3 years. Close to that 2x premium

Robertson got 23M guaranteed over 2 years. He's probably a 2 WAR player over that period. So a premium but more like 50%.

There are probably some others this off-season I can't remember. But it seems more like a 50% premium.

I think we are paying market or more if we value Kimbrel over 2 WAR (16-17M per year). I'd be ok with going about 14M/year for 2-3 years. It seems to me the Braves are in the driver's seat here. If he says he wants more than Britton, his agent can give him a tutorial on state and local taxes in GA vs NY.
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Another one...

Wade Davis: 1.1 Win 17.333 AAV. close to a 100% premium.

I think 1.5 WAR for Kimbrell is maybe closer to a floor for negotiation purposes than a ceiling. He should get more than Davis and probably significantly more. But maybe Davis just got way overpaid because Kimbrel over shot things.
 
Carp said:
May be cause we're talking about closers. If you can't discern the difference between a closer and a regular reliever, there is no reason to continue this conversation.
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If you think there is a difference between evaluating a BP arm simply because someone calls him a "closer", then it's you who has no idea what's going on in the modern game.
 
Enscheff said:
If you think there is a difference between evaluating a BP arm simply because someone calls him a "closer", then it's you who has no idea what's going on in the modern game.
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Clearly MLB GMs evaluate them differently, because they get paid more than regular relievers.
 
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