Arizona Fall League

zitothebrave said:
I would say over. Especially if we're going off last season. MLE has his iso under .100 and I'm fairly sure that he's got more power than that. I think he winds up in the .130 range maybe a little lower as a rookie though but who knows cause Tommy has shown good power other seasons. I don't think his average really can be much worse than .280 unless he either starts striking out way more often or he stops hitting line drives. Guys who don't strike out and hit line drives have high averages. Heck even if he doesn't hit a ton of linedrives, the guys with the 30 lowest K% (qualified) only 13 were below .280, only 8 below .270 so I'd consider Tommy a pretty comfortable bet to meet his average and OBP and he should beat his slugging.
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I like the fact he improved second half relative to the first. In terms of the jump to the majors, I think a big key is ability to hit a major league breaking ball. It is a big adjustment. We saw Gattis and Terdoslavich have a bit of trouble with that. Anyone see enough of La Stella to have a view as to how well he will do in that department relative to Gattis and Terdoslavich?
 
LaStella has a great statistical profile and I love guys that don't stall at any level. He adjusts quickly to a higher quality of pitching. He should be the guy this year.
 
zitothebrave said:
Infante is much more Scutaro than Prado.

With only about 4 years of experience as a starter (I'm using that term pretty loosely since he was more of a super sub for us his last year than a pure starter) his fWAR has been 2.1 2.1 2.9 (fluke defensive year) and 3.1 (fluke offensive year) I think most teams will see past the smoke and mirrors and see him as a valuable but not invaluable piece. I liken Infante to Polanco and Scutaro, those guys have never made more than 6M and Infante doesn't have their defensive reps.

I think most will see in Infante a guy who's league average with the bat or worse and league average with the glove depending on position. There's certainly some value to that but I highly doubt teams go much over 6 million for him. Could be wrong of course but I think if a team goes high with him it's on a 2 year deal tops.
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You have to adjust for the inflation in baseball. 7-9 million is what 5-6 was in years past.
 
zitothebrave said:
Infante is much more Scutaro than Prado.

With only about 4 years of experience as a starter (I'm using that term pretty loosely since he was more of a super sub for us his last year than a pure starter) his fWAR has been 2.1 2.1 2.9 (fluke defensive year) and 3.1 (fluke offensive year) I think most teams will see past the smoke and mirrors and see him as a valuable but not invaluable piece. I liken Infante to Polanco and Scutaro, those guys have never made more than 6M and Infante doesn't have their defensive reps.

I think most will see in Infante a guy who's league average with the bat or worse and league average with the glove depending on position. There's certainly some value to that but I highly doubt teams go much over 6 million for him. Could be wrong of course but I think if a team goes high with him it's on a 2 year deal tops.
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Infante is younger and better than Scutaro. You can cite fluke defensive and offensive years for just about every player. If you look at three year totals, that smooths out the ups and downs. Scutaro put up 3 year WAR of 6.8 leading up to his contract. Infante is at 8.1. Infante is also hitting free agency five years younger than Scutaro.
 
nsacpi said:
I like the fact he improved second half relative to the first. In terms of the jump to the majors, I think a big key is ability to hit a major league breaking ball. It is a big adjustment. We saw Gattis and Terdoslavich have a bit of trouble with that. Anyone see enough of La Stella to have a view as to how well he will do in that department relative to Gattis and Terdoslavich?
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I think Tommy will struggle with LOOGY types to start his career. Which is why getting a good RHB to back him up will help early on until he's more comfortable in the bigs.
 
1. This is Infantes last go round for a big, extended contract. Expect 3 years at whatever price
2. Infante cannot play SS. He does have some value as a CF in a pinch.
3. Whatever he signs for will be too expensive for a bench player/pinch hitter

Bench for next year:

LH hitting catcher if Fredi wants to carry 3 catchers I think he has seen the value in this. AJ Pierzynski would be ideal but may cost more than willing to pay.
Middle IF backup. Pena should fill this role ideally, if healthy, read: Cheap
4th OF LH Hitting preferred. With all others need that LH hitter Not Shafer, Not Constanza. A NL team cannot afford the luxury of these guys.
A proven switch hitting pinch hitter. See the value in these guys like Giambi (poor example) when the playoffs come? At least capable if you make the WS.
 
I'm all fo Infante, but where exactly do we play him? Does LaStella not get the ML job? CJ will be at 3rd.
 
Tommy just feels like that Cardinals type player that doesn't have huge projection but always produces. He needs a shot.
 
yeezus said:
I'm all fo Infante, but where exactly do we play him? Does LaStella not get the ML job? CJ will be at 3rd.
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He'd get 300-400 PA as a super sub and lots of innings as Johnson's designated defensive replacement or La Stella's LOOGY relief. Not to mention injuries will happen.

Omar can play (though not for long terms at most) SS, OF, 2B and 3B. All of those positions we could have potential long term needs. Having a go to bench guy is extremely valuable. We didn't have that this year, in the past we had Infante, or Prado, but having someone someone you can plug in at just about any position is invaluable. This year our closest thing to a super sub was Gattis. Pena was but he got hurt pretty early on and I don't know if he can handle the OF. Janish and Elliot can't hit a lick.

So either we need to sign Omar of try to go bonkers and get someone like Zobrist who can move around as the team need adjusts.
 
Omar would get plenty of AB's. He can play all 3 OF spots and basically every IF spot but it would be hard to get both he and Pena a lot of AB's.
 
Will Omar go somewhere he isn't a full-time starter guaranteed? I really don't know.
I'd love Zobrist, but we'd run into a similar problem. He'd have to be our starting 2B and then use him elsewhere as injuries arise. He has a very reasonable contract and would probably take a lot to pry away from TB. I'm not sure they would trade him, actually.
 
I think if we pay Omar he will come to play here. Luckily the Braves will have money considering Mac isn't coming back and hte starting rotation is cheap. Braves can afford to pay him what other teams will probably pay him.
 
Have you ever seen Infante play SS? He is like a statue out there and between him and CJ the whole left side would be a hole. CF aint much better but if not many are hit out there he will suffice in a minimal role. There is a very good reason he has been a 2nd baseman his whole career.
 
He is not going to be asked to play it all the time. If anything it would be Pena who would be hte backup SS. Simmons is a monster. He will play 155+ times.
 
Given that we have La Stella, Pena and Pastornicky, I would not be interested in Infante at 8-10M/yr.
 
thethe said:
Where else are we going to spend the money?
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I would rather spend on McCann and have Gattis replicate his super sub/power bat off the bench role.

To me 15-16M/year for four years on McCann is money better spent than 8-10/year for Infante.

Under this scenario, we will have an option down the road to trade Gattis to an American League team (possibly to upgrade the rotation), and slide Bethancourt and/or Caratini into the catcher-of-the-future role.
 
nsacpi said:
I would rather spend on McCann and have Gattis replicate his super sub/power bat off the bench role.

To me 15-16M/year for four years on McCann is money better spent than 8-10/year for Infante.

Under this scenario, we will have an option down the road to trade Gattis to an American League team (possibly to upgrade the rotation), and slide Bethancourt and/or Caratini into the catcher-of-the-future role.
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There is no way that a 4 year contract to a 30 year old catcher is better than a 2 year contract for less money for a MIF super util guy. Mac is going to be way overpaid.
 
thethe said:
There is no way that a 4 year contract to a 30 year old catcher is better than a 2 year contract for less money for a MIF super util guy. Mac is going to be way overpaid.
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Take a look at the aging curve of catchers with high similarity scores to McCann. The five post-WWII catchers with the highest similarity scores to him are Lance Parrish, Gary Carter, Bill Freehan, Yogi Berra and Del Crandall, in that order.

Parrish made the AS team at age 30, 32 and 34. He fell off sharply after age 34.

Carter was an AS every year from age 30 to 34. He hit 20 or more HR every year from age 30 to 33.

Freehan was an AS at ages 30, 31, and 33. Strangely, his age 32 season was better than any of those.

Berra received MVP votes in each of his age 30-34 seasons, winning the MVP at age 30 and was runner up for MVP at age 31.

Crandall had a very good age 30 season, missed most of his age 31 season, rebounded with a decent age 32 season, then went into sharp decline.
 
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