2019 MLB Draft Thread

[nsacpi]

Not excited about the possibility of Abrams, especially over slot at the expense of the rest of the draft.

Looks like his skill set profiles as possibly a little better Dee Gordon. How valuable is that?

His best attribute is speed. What does that really mean in MLB in the 21st century? What does that mean on a Braves team that historically doesn’t run?

Sure, speed and athleticism are part of defense and potentially an antedote for defensive shifts. But why doesn’t it play a bigger role today?

From BA's writeup on Abrams:

Abrams pairs that speed with a line-drive oriented swing from the left side, and he has tremendous feel for putting the barrel on the baseball. He rarely swings and misses, and because of those skills scouts think Abrams could become a plus hitter. It also wouldn’t be shocking if Abrams eventually reaches above-average power because of his impressive hand-eye coordination and ability to consistently put the barrel on the ball in today’s home run-friendly environment at the Triple-A and major league levels. Either way, he should get plenty of extra-base hits thanks to his running ability. Where scouts are most conflicted on Abrams is his future defensive home. He made center field look tremendously easy during his time with USA Baseball’s 18U National Team last fall (when he also hit .297/.395/.324 in nine games), and he projects as a plus defender in the outfield. But he also has a chance to stick at shortstop, where he has quick footwork, plus range, solid glovework and adequate arm strength.

So a bigger, stronger, faster Carroll with more upside with the bat and the glove.

 

[auyushu]

Not excited about the possibility of Abrams, especially over slot at the expense of the rest of the draft.

Looks like his skill set profiles as possibly a little better Dee Gordon. How valuable is that?

Before he fell off Dee Gordon had two 3.6 fWAR seasons and a 4.8 fWAR season. So a little better version of Gordon would be a consistent 4 WAR player and crazy valuable.

 

[Jay212033]

If Abrams is there he won’t get past us at 9.

Just as sure as you say that we'll pass on him!

 

[Southcack77]

Something like this makes the most sense unless someone who is clearly BPA falls to 9.

I would hate to see 2 arms taken at 9 and 21, and would be shocked if it happens.

If the braves like any of the college arms a lot, you shouldn’t be too shocked.

 

[BeanieAntics]

From BA's writeup on Abrams:

Abrams pairs that speed with a line-drive oriented swing from the left side, and he has tremendous feel for putting the barrel on the baseball. He rarely swings and misses, and because of those skills scouts think Abrams could become a plus hitter. It also wouldn’t be shocking if Abrams eventually reaches above-average power because of his impressive hand-eye coordination and ability to consistently put the barrel on the ball in today’s home run-friendly environment at the Triple-A and major league levels. Either way, he should get plenty of extra-base hits thanks to his running ability. Where scouts are most conflicted on Abrams is his future defensive home. He made center field look tremendously easy during his time with USA Baseball’s 18U National Team last fall (when he also hit .297/.395/.324 in nine games), and he projects as a plus defender in the outfield. But he also has a chance to stick at shortstop, where he has quick footwork, plus range, solid glovework and adequate arm strength.

So a bigger, stronger, faster Carroll with more upside with the bat and the glove.

Yeah I like the idea of drafting guys with a good hit tool and athleticism. Given the way baseball is trending with new ball, I think guys like that have more value because the chances that they turn in to 20 homer guys is much better than it used to be.

If we get Abrams, it will be a massive coup for us. I also don't think we would necessarily have to punt 21 to get it done either. I think we could go big at 9 and 21 and punting 60 and our 3rd round pick.

 

[Enscheff]

Not excited about the possibility of Abrams, especially over slot at the expense of the rest of the draft.

Looks like his skill set profiles as possibly a little better Dee Gordon. How valuable is that?

His best attribute is speed. What does that really mean in MLB in the 21st century? What does that mean on a Braves team that historically doesn’t run?

Sure, speed and athleticism are part of defense and potentially an antedote for defensive shifts. But why doesn’t it play a bigger role today?

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Dafuq??

 

[Southcack77]

This is one of those times where the "hometown discount" could actually be in play. If this kid wants to stay in the South for his MiLB career, it is plausible he is complicit in orchestrating his fall to #9 while still getting Top 5 cash.

The question becomes whether or not Abrams is enough of an upgrade over Carroll to downgrade the talent selected at 21 as a result? Or perhaps the plan all along has been to go over slot at 9 AND 21, while punting pick 60. That could help explain why the Braves refused to lose that 60th pick when signing FAs.

I feel like it’s a tough draft to be going over slot later in the draft. Too many teams with a lot of picks. Maxing out two might be easier to pull off.

 

[Southcack77]

Yeah I like the idea of drafting guys with a good hit tool and athleticism. Given the way baseball is trending with new ball, I think guys like that have more value because the chances that they turn in to 20 homer guys is much better than it used to be.

If we get Abrams, it will be a massive coup for us. I also don't think we would necessarily have to punt 21 to get it done either. I think we could go big at 9 and 21 and punting 60 and our 3rd round pick.

I question using a high pick on prospects that need a lot of projection to get to average power.

I also question relying on the juiced ball to create power where it would otherwise be lacking.

But if the choice is between similar hit tools and one guy is 5 inches taller I’m definitely interested in paying a bit more to get that extra bit of power hope.

 

[nsacpi]

I question using a high pick on prospects that need a lot of projection to get to average power.

I also question relying on the juiced ball to create power where it would otherwise be lacking.

But if the choice is between similar hit tools and one guy is 5 inches taller I’m definitely interested in paying a bit more to get that extra bit of power hope.

projecting power is a highly uncertain exercise...a lot of guys who are filled out physically will impress in BP or lower level leagues but are not able to translate it at a higher level...otoh you have smaller players like Albies and Pedroia and Altuve with strong hit tools (not to mention defensive chops) who find some power as they move up

In thinking about what kind of player Abrams might become (say his 90th percentile comp) the name I come up with is Lorenzo Cain...a tremendous defensive outfielder with some pop (10-15 HRs), K rate below 20%, high BABIP, excellent baserunning. If he can stay at short, he doesn't have to be as good with the bat to achieve similar value.

 

[CJ9]

Keith Law on Corbin Carroll power:

He's a 20+ guy for me. Maybe more. Alex Bregman has 48 homers since the start of 2018; I think Carroll has comparable hand strength.

 

[Southcack77]

projecting power is a highly uncertain exercise...a lot of guys who are filled out physically will impress in BP or lower level leagues but are not able to translate it at a higher level...otoh you have smaller players like Albies and Pedroia and Altuve with strong hit tools (not to mention defensive chops) who find some power as they move up

I think there is a difference between believing it’s possible and expecting an outlier.

You said the two guys had similar hit tools. One of them is bigger and higher rated and has performed vs higher competition (I think).

I think that’s worth a money premium.

 

[nsacpi]

I think there is a difference between believing it’s possible and expecting an outlier.

You said the two guys had similar hit tools. One of them is bigger and higher rated and has performed vs higher competition (I think).

I think that’s worth a money premium.

well...the additional point is Altuve, Pedroia and Albies are Black Swans. Players who defy the classical profile. Abrams is the player with the classical profile. And there is a reason why scouts prefer the classical profile, while keeping an open mind about the possibility of a Black Swan.

 

[Enscheff]

Keith Law on Corbin Carroll power:

He's a 20+ guy for me. Maybe more. Alex Bregman has 48 homers since the start of 2018; I think Carroll has comparable hand strength.

Now I have to know how KLaw knows how strong Carroll’s hands are...

 

[Enscheff]

I think there is a difference between believing it’s possible and expecting an outlier.

You said the two guys had similar hit tools. One of them is bigger and higher rated and has performed vs higher competition (I think).

I think that’s worth a money premium.

Every team agrees. That’s why Abrams is ranked so much higher.

The question becomes whether Abrams is so much better it’s worth giving up a Priester to acquire him. I won’t pretend to know enough about these guys to make that determination...I’m not Fat Ben.

I’ll continue to assert Carroll is possibly the most underrated guy in the top half of the 1st round though.

 

[Super]

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Dafuq??

i had a lot to say but this sums it all up v well

 

[Russ2dollas]

Why would we take a college SS? Where would he play? I don't get fangraphs on this one. Ozzie is locked up. Swanson is controlled for a while. HS SS I get, college guy I do not.

Catcher and stud hitter are the only college positions I can see. Stud hitters will find a spot to play.

I feel like we should be taking high upside HS guys like Carroll and Espino. We need some guys at the lower levels and we need some difference makers.

 

[nsacpi]

Why would we take a college SS? Where would he play? I don't get fangraphs on this one. Ozzie is locked up. Swanson is controlled for a while. HS SS I get, college guy I do not.

Catcher and stud hitter are the only college positions I can see. Stud hitters will find a spot to play.

I feel like we should be taking high upside HS guys like Carroll and Espino. We need some guys at the lower levels and we need some difference makers.

players are fungible...you take the one who has the best chance of developing into a valuable asset...it is the logic behind taking the player with the highest ceiling

 

[Southcack77]

players are fungible...you take the one who has the best chance of developing into a valuable asset...it is the logic behind taking the player with the highest ceiling

Taking college bat is a conscious decision to get a quicker return.

I didn’t mean to hit send:

I agree that need should not outweigh upside. I actually think i college ss would play fine with swanson’s Clock anyway though.

I just don’t really see a ton to love in the first round.

 

[Enscheff]

Taking college bat is a conscious decision to get a quicker return.

I didn’t mean to hit send:

I agree that need should not outweigh upside. I actually think i college ss would play fine with swanson’s Clock anyway though.

I just don’t really see a ton to love in the first round.

I'm going to break something to you...

Picking 9th, there probably isn't going to be a slam dunk guy everyone loves...in any draft...ever.

In fact, most drafts don't even have 1 of those JUp/Harper/Stras type talents that makes everyone drool. If the Braves can somehow get a FV 50 guy to drop to 9, or grab 3 FV 45 guys at 9/21/60, it has to be considered a successful draft. If they come away with 3 risky arms with their 3 top picks...we will have something to complain about.

Unlike data analysis, no matter how much we read, none of us actually know anything about projecting these guys. All we can do is read what guys with actuual connections are able to repeat to us. Dudes like Fat Ben like to pretend they have scouting chops while they watch grainy video on the couch stuffing their face with Taco Bell, but we have seen just how little dudes like that actually know.

 

[Heyward]

Why would we take a college SS? Where would he play? I don't get fangraphs on this one. Ozzie is locked up. Swanson is controlled for a while. HS SS I get, college guy I do not.

Catcher and stud hitter are the only college positions I can see. Stud hitters will find a spot to play.

I feel like we should be taking high upside HS guys like Carroll and Espino. We need some guys at the lower levels and we need some difference makers.

It's about building up assets, however you can get them.