2019 MLB Draft Thread

mqt said:
As I’ve said, I didn’t like our Day 1, and would grade it similarly to you. I just think we’re assigning a lot our own opinions to the FO by claiming they went way off board.
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This happens every year we take a guy ranked Nth when N-1th was available.

Last year we did take the consensus public BPA and luckily he didn’t sign because his stuff backed up almost immediately. The draft isn’t easy.

Like I said earlier, I am more interested in understanding our approach rather than the individual picks. I would be more than satisfied if we learned that the team relied heavily on models that incorporated trackman data which seems to be the case. KLaw mentioned in his write up that Langeliers is a high exit velocity guy.
 
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mqt said:
I’m not one to blindly trust in the FO and assume they know more than everyone else, but I also think it’s frankly absurd to go out on a limb and say they specifically drafted players they didn’t have rated as the proper value for that pick. Signability does matter, so it’s likely they had some prep guys rated a bit higher that wouldn’t fit the rest of their plan, but pointing to a BA draft ranking doesn’t mean Atlanta agreed with it. As I’ve said, I didn’t like our Day 1, and would grade it similarly to you. I just think we’re assigning a lot our own opinions to the FO by claiming they went way off board.
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I'm not inserting my own opinion into Langeliers. Brown in giving the reasons this was a great pick heralded it as solving our catcher question. I think that's pretty good evidence the team injected position of need into the analysis for at least that pick. I don't like that. If they go strictly BPA they might still take Langeliers but I doubt it. I think Bishop was probably BPA there.
 
msstate7 said:
I'm hopeful we take someone in the 3rd rated as a 10th rounder. Might crash the server or get some people here banned lol
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I think it would just get to the point of funny. In any event, taking crazy picks after the second round is far less incendiary. The value of the picks drops off and the boards completely diverge.
 
Draft fact of the day: In 2018 9 players listed as shortstops were drafted in the first 60 picks. In 2019 that number was 16.

Of course not all of those guys will stick at short, even in their minor league careers. But it does seem that this is the direction the talent was skewed this year.
 
Taking a look at video of the swings of the first 3 picks, I came away impressed with Langeliers swing and think it will make him worthy of the #9 pick going forward. Very well sequenced and simple. Stays on line with his barrel path and in the zone.

I’m not as impressed with other 2 swings. Shewmake has some issues with barrel direction, more east-west than north-south. Looks like a swing that will hook balls pull side, including lots of grounders to 2b and fillet balls opposite field. But with his size, if he gets that cleaned up he could be a nice prospect at going forward. Philip has a lot of early barrel release is very inefficient with how he gets the barrel to the zone. His swing is what you see on high school fields (in terms of flaws) and not currently a swing conducive to pro success.
 
I really only see three paths forward playing out today and tomorrow:

1) We spend one of our picks today or early tomorrow on a prep guy that’s a questionable sign that would require a 7 figure bonus. If this happens, it would likely signify we went underslot earlier and would set up an interesting few weeks wondering if we can sign the player if we waited this long.

2) We go with a glut of senior signs today and throw out a bunch of 6 figure bonuses tomorrow to prep players with Day 2 grades. This would also likely shed some light on last night, as even modest pool savings would mean adding a couple more lottery tickets each.

3) The draft plays out a lot like our recent drafts on the second and third days, with a few interesting players along the way. This would be the most disappointing in my opinion, but would provide some clarity on how close the bonuses for the top 3 will be to slot. If we don’t show a clear strategy of prep players on Day 3 or see some players with high bonuses today or round 11, I’d imagine the top 2 at least are basically at slot.
 
striker42 said:
I'm not inserting my own opinion into Langeliers. Brown in giving the reasons this was a great pick heralded it as solving our catcher question. I think that's pretty good evidence the team injected position of need into the analysis for at least that pick. I don't like that. If they go strictly BPA they might still take Langeliers but I doubt it. I think Bishop was probably BPA there.
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To be fair, “solving our catcher question” can simultaneously be a thing they think happened with the pick and not be the reason they made it.
 
mqt said:
I really only see three paths forward playing out today and tomorrow:

1) We spend one of our picks today or early tomorrow on a prep guy that’s a questionable sign that would require a 7 figure bonus. If this happens, it would likely signify we went underslot earlier and would set up an interesting few weeks wondering if we can sign the player if we waited this long.

2) We go with a glut of senior signs today and throw out a bunch of 6 figure bonuses tomorrow to prep players with Day 2 grades. This would also likely shed some light on last night, as even modest pool savings would mean adding a couple more lottery tickets each.

3) The draft plays out a lot like our recent drafts on the second and third days, with a few interesting players along the way. This would be the most disappointing in my opinion, but would provide some clarity on how close the bonuses for the top 3 will be to slot. If we don’t show a clear strategy of prep players on Day 3 or see some players with high bonuses today or round 11, I’d imagine the top 2 at least are basically at slot.
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One name I'll keep an eye on is Brooks Lee, a HS SS from San Luis Obispo. He has committed to Cal Poly where his dad is the coach. Interesting situation.

Brooks Lee is an excellent name for a baseball player. But imo Bruce Lee would be even better, a guarantee for the HoF.
 
mqt said:
To be fair, “solving our catcher question” can simultaneously be a thing they think happened with the pick and not be the reason they made it.
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correct. he didn't say "we took him because we felt we needed a catcher soon and he's a catcher who isn't far away."
it's "we liked him, and he also happens to be a good fit in the organization."
but the whining is so fun, so anything that allows me to turn it up..
 
mqt said:
To be fair, “solving our catcher question” can simultaneously be a thing they think happened with the pick and not be the reason they made it.
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True. I guess my opinion part is that I think it was a factor.

Of the three, Langeliers is the most defensible. I think he was a slight reach (I'd have ranked him around 15). The other two were much bigger reaches.
 
nsacpi said:
Draft fact of the day: In 2018 9 players listed as shortstops were drafted in the first 60 picks. In 2019 that number was 16.

Of course not all of those guys will stick at short, even in their minor league careers. But it does seem that this is the direction the talent was skewed this year.
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Was it Earl Weaver who said "just get me shortstops and I'll find a place for them to play".

I forget who but someone used to say this.
 
striker42 said:
I'm not inserting my own opinion into Langeliers. Brown in giving the reasons this was a great pick heralded it as solving our catcher question. I think that's pretty good evidence the team injected position of need into the analysis for at least that pick. I don't like that. If they go strictly BPA they might still take Langeliers but I doubt it. I think Bishop was probably BPA there.
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Fangraphs even said Shew was in the 20s on some boards... they were a bit lower than the consensus on Shea. He was pretty universally ranked in the 8-12 range. So you are injecting your own opinion when you only give credence to one point of view (Fangraphs) and ignore or discount every other point of view.

Shea is not a low ceiling guy... he is not a defense only C, he just happens to be brilliant on D so it overshadows his solid plate discipline and two very good offensive years with a stinker in the middle partially due to a very low BABIP. And he did what he did this year 3 weeks after hamate surgery... that’s really freaking impressive.

Shew was just a slight reach... his upside appears much higher than you are giving him credit from everything I’m reading (sorry I tend to read various sources and not just Fangraphs).

I can’t defend the 2nd round pick but hoping it’s leading to some big signability question guys today
 
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