2019 MLB Draft Thread

[nsacpi]

So what makes a successful draft? How many mlb players?

Here are the rough rules:

1) Most first round picks make the majors.
2) About half of the picks from the second, third and supplemental rounds make it.
3) About 1 player per year makes it from rounds 4-10.
4) About 1 player per year makes it from rounds 11 onward.

Since we had 2 first round picks, having 5 players from this year's draft would represent an "average" outcome.

But looking at the number of players who make the majors is not the best way to evaluate a draft. You want to look at impact players. How many guys were good enough to generate significant value. The average is 1 per 5 players who make the majors. So about 1 per draft.

Taking a stroll down memory lane:

2007: 2 impact players (Heyward and Freeman), 2 scrubs (Hicks and Gearrin). Above average draft.
2008: 1 impact player (Kimbrel), 4 scrubs (Spruill, Clemens, Oberholtzer, Hoover). Plus Beachy (a NDFA who would have been a star if not for injury). Average draft. Would have been above average with a healthy Beachy.
2009: 1 impact player (Minor), 2 scrubs (Hale, Weber). Slightly below average draft. Again impacted by health issues. But if you focus on pitchers that's to be expected.
2010: 2 impact players (Simmons, Gattis) , 5 scrubs (Cunningham, Gosselin, Terdoslavich, Shreve, Drury). A really outstanding draft considering we did not have a true first round pick. Our highest pick was in the supplemental round after the first round.
2011: 2 semi-impact players (Ahmed, La Stella), 7 scrubs (Gilmartin, Kubitza, Graham, Martin, Cornely, Schlosser, Harper). Slightly below average draft due to no real impact player.
2012: 1 impact player (Wood), 3 scrubs (Sims, Shae Simmons, Parsons who is an NDFA but part of that class). The personification of an average draft.
2013: 3 scrubs (Hursch, Caratini, Marksberry). A bad draft.
2014: 3 scrubs (Povse, Sobotka, Webb). A bad draft.
2015: 3 potential impact players (Soroka, Riley, Minter). Allard and Phillips have reached the majors. Weigel is a potential contributor. A very good draft even considering the extra high picks.
2016: too early to tell. Waiting on Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson. I'm thinking 1 of those four will pan out, making this an average draft. If 2 pan out it will be above average.
2017: too early to tell. Everything rides on Wright and Waters. Average if 1 pans out. Above average if both do. Below average if neither do.
2018: have to account for the fact we did not sign our 1st round pick and were docked our 3rd round pick. Vodnik shows some promise. Likely to be a below average draft even accounting for no 1st round pick.
2019: too early to tell

 

[50PoundHead]

Here are the rough rules:

1) Most first round picks make the majors.
2) About half of the picks from the second, third and supplemental rounds make it.
3) About 1 player per year makes it from rounds 4-10.
4) About 1 player per year makes it from rounds 11 onward.

Since we had 2 first round picks, having 5 players from this year's draft would represent an "average" outcome.

But looking at the number of players who make the majors is not the best way to evaluate a draft. You want to look at impact players. How many guys were good enough to generate significant value. The average is 1 per 5 players who make the majors. So about 1 per draft.

Taking a stroll down memory lane:

2007: 2 impact players (Heyward and Freeman), 2 scrubs (Hicks and Gearrin). Above average draft.
2008: 1 impact player (Kimbrel), 4 scrubs (Spruill, Clemens, Oberholtzer, Hoover). Plus Beachy (a NDFA who would have been a star if not for injury). Average draft. Would have been above average with a healthy Beachy.
2009: 1 impact player (Minor), 2 scrubs (Hale, Weber). Slightly below average draft. Again impacted by health issues. But if you focus on pitchers that's to be expected.
2010: 2 impact players (Simmons, Gattis) , 5 scrubs (Cunningham, Gosselin, Terdoslavich, Shreve, Drury). A really outstanding draft considering we did not have a true first round pick. Our highest pick was in the supplemental round after the first round.
2011: 2 semi-impact players (Ahmed, La Stella), 7 scrubs (Gilmartin, Kubitza, Graham, Martin, Cornely, Schlosser, Harper). Slightly below average draft due to no real impact player.
2012: 1 impact player (Wood), 3 scrubs (Sims, Shae Simmons, Parsons who is an NDFA but part of that class). The personification of an average draft.
2013: 3 scrubs (Hursch, Caratini, Marksberry). A bad draft.
2014: 3 scrubs (Povse, Sobotka, Webb). A bad draft.
2015: 3 potential impact players (Soroka, Riley, Minter). Phillips has reached the majors. Weigel is a potential contributor. A very good draft even considering the extra high picks.
2016: too early to tell. Waiting on Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson. I'm thinking 1 of those four will pan out, making this an average draft. If 2 pan out it will be above average.
2017: too early to tell. Everything rides on Wright and Waters. Average if 1 pans out. Above average if both do. Below average if neither do.
2018: have to account for the fact we did not sign our 1st round pick and were docked our 3rd round pick. Vodnik shows some promise. Likely to be a below average draft even accounting for no 1st round pick.
2019: too early to tell

Good synopsis. I think the jury is still out on Drury (two solid seasons in Arizona, but meh since). He's probably not going to be an impact player, but I think he's better than a scrub. Alex Wood had a nice couple of years, but it appears the injury bug has finally caught up with him (which was somewhat expected).

 

[nsacpi]

Good synopsis. I think the jury is still out on Drury (two solid seasons in Arizona, but meh since). He's probably not going to be an impact player, but I think he's better than a scrub. Alex Wood had a nice couple of years, but it appears the injury bug has finally caught up with him (which was somewhat expected).

Drury career WAR is 0.6 so far. Scrub.

Wood career WAR is 13.7 so far. Impact player.

The guys that are really in between are La Stella (3.7 career WAR) and Ahmed (3.0).

Not all scrubs are the same. Not all impact players are the same. My working definition of impact player is one who generates 6 or more WAR in his pre-free agency period. Freeman and Andrelton are special in that they have exceeded this by such a large amount. I think those two will have a case for the Hall of Fame. Kimbrel will have a case for Hall of Fame too, but generally I think closers are overrated. Except for Mariano who did so much of his greatest work in the crucible of post-season play. But that takes us away from the topic at hand.

 

[Jaw]

Dana Brown on the 5th round OF we took that Baseball America reported most teams hadn't heard of: “We were shocked when Paolini was still available, and that’s why we grabbed him.”

I think confusion is a possibility here. Were there any known prospects with a name similar to Paolini?

 

[Jaw]

Riley has already won something like 5 or 6 games for us. So, impact player.

 

[50PoundHead]

Drury career WAR is 0.6 so far. Scrub.

Wood career WAR is 13.7 so far. Impact player.

The guys that are really in between are La Stella (3.7 career WAR) and Ahmed (3.0).

Fwar or Bwar? Pre-season, LaStella was at 1.5 Bwar and he's had a great year. He's 30. Drury is 26. I think lumping Drury with guys like Todd Cunningham and Joey Terdoslavich is a little rough. Those guys total combined big league ABs don't add up to a half a season.

I always saw Wood as a guy who was going to be a shooting star. Great ascent with a relatively short career. Had a monster first half in 2017, but basically threw his arm out. He may be back, but I don't think he will be what he was.

 

[nsacpi]

I think confusion is a possibility here. Were there any known prospects with a name similar to Paolini?

There was one name Panini. So yeah, maybe teams got confused. One year we took two Brandon Whites in consecutive rounds. Apparently this happened because we took the wrong Brandon White the first time around.

 

[Super]

Fwar or Bwar? Pre-season, LaStella was at 1.5 Bwar and he's had a great year. He's 30. Drury is 26. I think lumping Drury with guys like Todd Cunningham and Joey Terdoslavich is a little rough. Those guys total combined big league ABs don't add up to a half a season.

I always saw Wood as a guy who was going to be a shooting star. Great ascent with a relatively short career. Had a monster first half in 2017, but basically threw his arm out. He may be back, but I don't think he will be what he was.

don't you talk bad about The Terd.

 

[nsacpi]

Fwar or Bwar? Pre-season, LaStella was at 1.5 Bwar and he's had a great year. He's 30. Drury is 26. I think lumping Drury with guys like Todd Cunningham and Joey Terdoslavich is a little rough. Those guys total combined big league ABs don't add up to a half a season.

I always saw Wood as a guy who was going to be a shooting star. Great ascent with a relatively short career. Had a monster first half in 2017, but basically threw his arm out. He may be back, but I don't think he will be what he was.

Using at FWAR.

La Stella and Ahmed won't reach free agency until after the 2020 season. They both are having strong 2019 seasons. Most of Ahmed's value is in his defense, which makes him an underappreciated under-the-radar type player.

The book is about to close on Wood. He hits free agency after this year. He has generated a ton of value in those pre-free agency years.

 

[thewupk]

There was one name Panini. So yeah, maybe teams got confused. One year we took two Brandon Whites in consecutive rounds. Apparently this happened because we took the wrong Brandon White the first time around.

that's embarassing

 

[50PoundHead]

Using at FWAR.

La Stella and Ahmed won't reach free agency until after the 2020 season. They both are having strong 2019 seasons. Most of Ahmed's value is in his defense, which makes him an underappreciated under-the-radar type player.

The book is about to close on Wood. He hits free agency after this year. He has generated a ton of value in those pre-free agency years.

Curious to see how Ahmed's career continues. Slow and steady progress. Stuck around and leapfrogged a few guys Arizona had ahead of him. La Stella has been awesome thus far in 2019 and if there is a guy who will benefit from a slightly-juiced ball, it's him. Consistent line-drive hitter with solid doubles power. Add a few feet to a lot of those doubles and you have a home run. Always saw him as a bench piece, but he could carve out a few years as a regular if he maintains even 3/4 of his current pace.

 

[nsacpi]

Curious to see how Ahmed's career continues. Slow and steady progress. Stuck around and leapfrogged a few guys Arizona had ahead of him. La Stella has been awesome thus far in 2019 and if there is a guy who will benefit from a slightly-juiced ball, it's him. Consistent line-drive hitter with solid doubles power. Add a few feet to a lot of those doubles and you have a home run. Always saw him as a bench piece, but he could carve out a few years as a regular if he maintains even 3/4 of his current pace.

I loved to watch La Stella hit. I'm curious to see how much of this surge he can sustain.

 

[thewupk]

la stella > ablies

 

[Carp]

la stella > ablies

Definitely reminds me of Matt Lipka.

 

[Deester11]

la stella > ablies

�� I loved La Stella. However....let's not get crazy. Albies has a career 5.3 WAR compared to 2.6 for Tommy. This year is favoring Tommy but nah for me.

 

[rico43]

that's embarassing

What makes it less damaging is that they were the 11th and 12th round picks that year (2016).

 

[50PoundHead]

What makes it less damaging is that they were the 11th and 12th round picks that year (2016).

And it's not as embarrassing--at least to me-- as when a team drafts the grandson of some retired regional scout as a courtesy knowing that the kid is never going to play professional baseball. Man, I hate that.

 

[jpx7]

Dana Brown on the 5th round OF we took that Baseball America reported most teams hadn't heard of: “We were shocked when Paolini was still available, and that’s why we grabbed him.”

Local paper quotes his high school coach in recounting the rise of his draft prospects:

”It kind of came out of nowhere,” Chaves said. “He wasn’t getting many looks until early this spring. And the next thing you know people were coming in and following him around for a couple of games. I was talking to his mother before the game and she was saying, wow, this has been so sudden.

“He ended playing pretty much the entire season with two, three scouts at every game, going to the house afterward, watching him take batting practice. He was being scrutinized and had a lot of pressure on him. He performed extremely well.”

How well? The leadoff man has 10 home runs, 43 runs scored, 29 RBIs, seven doubles, four triples and takes a batting average a shade over .500 into the Class M championship game this weekend.

The Rangers, the Phillies and the Braves spent the most time around St. Joe’s this spring. A five-tool player, who hits and throws lefthanded and can play all three outfield positions, his stock grew this spring.

“I think it was a race between the Phillies and Braves who was going to take him first,” Chaves said. “Today we heard he was going to go third to seventh round. By today, we did have a pretty good idea.”

Makes me think the extent to which he was “unknown” is overplayed by the publications simply because he wasn’t on their radar quickly enough. And selecting him in the fifth round makes sense if the Braves thought he was entering the range where Philadelphia might take him.

 

[nsacpi]

What makes it less damaging is that they were the 11th and 12th round picks that year (2016).

strangely the Brandon White who was accidently drafted is still in the system (with the Florida Fire Frogs) and the other one has been released

 

[nsacpi]

Local paper quotes his high school coach in recounting the rise of his draft prospects:



Makes me think the extent to which he was “unknown” is overplayed by the publications simply because he wasn’t on their radar quickly enough. And selecting him in the fifth round makes sense if the Braves thought he was entering the range where Philadelphia might take him.

Good info. Interesting to see he batted leadoff and also had four triples. Speed definitely seems to be part of his game. And some power too.