that's not what's happening here. come on.
Austin Riley Apology Thread
- Thread starter bravesfanforlife88
- Start date
that's not what's happening here. come on.
103 PAs is right where this stuff starts to stabilize.
Notice everything isn't looking so great as we near the point of stabilization?
Do you understand what "small sample size" means?
Orphan Black
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
That's exactly what is happening...he goes on a cold spell and now Enscheff is calling out the people who were praising him.
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Orphan Black
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
Yes. You don't seem to understand what it means. Still can't believe you got modded. I really hate reading your garbage.
DontStopTheChop
High School Draftee
What isn't being understood here? Do you think the "real" Austin Riley is a .400 hitter? Please enlighten us on your theory so we'll understand.
100 PA is where stats start to normalize. Thousands of players have been analyzed by statisticians and they've noted that 100 PA is when you can tell what is real and what isn't real. Austin Riley has now reached 100 PA.
Do you have some research to share that says otherwise? If so, please share. Otherwise, calling another poster garbage for posting research that backs up his point is...... garbage. I admit that I often question Enscheff's approach but hardly do I find myself questioning the accuracy of his posts.
it's not tho.
his unsustainable/"lucky" numbers are coming down to where his true talent numbers/skills say they should have been. this is over the season to this point.
read through the (agreed!) douchiness of these sentences:
"The yellow and red lines are the predictive stats that describe actual skills. Notice they remained mostly flat?
The blue line is the stat that was being propped up by pure luck. Notice that line is plummeting?"
Riley was never going to continue to hit a HR on 50% of his fly balls. once stuff like that stopped happening, the rest of his numbers took a tumble. they are very likely to continue to fall further.
if only the sample AFTER his insane hot streak were being used, you'd have a point and be right. that's not what that graph displays. the graph displays the full season of the relevant stats. it shows some stats remaining basically the same throughout, and the unsustainable stats, as expected, tumbling down...over the full season, not just over a small sample.
i think he's not getting that the graphs display the full season for Riley. it's not using his recent cold stretch as a counter to his hot stretch. it's showing the rolling averages of the full season, which includes both the hot and the cold, the unsustainable and the more "true", legitimate rates (BB, K).
It isn't a given that either of those will happen. He has a minor league career K rate of 25%. His current K rate is 33%. He has a minor BB rate of 8%. His current walk rate is 3.9%. Then you have to adjust for the jump in difficulty from the minors to the majors. It's likely Riley's K rate and BB rate stay fairly similar to what they are now (at least for this season). May be he improves them slightly, but I wouldn't bet on a large improvement from either one for the remainder of the year.
I love reading your brilliant contributions to the board.
Thanks for being such a valued member!
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
He should be able to bring that K rate down to around 25%. Maybe not this year but within a year or two. Part of the natural improvement of a young hitter. With his power, he can be a productive player with a 25% K rate. Not so sure with a 30% K rate. The hot start obscured some things about his game that are becoming more clear.
There are things about Riley that are more worrisome than "he's a young hitter". As I detailed before...
O-Swing% = 40.9%. That would rank 13th worst of 162 qualified hitters. Riley swings at way too many bad pitches, which is something you could chalk up to being a young hitter who needs to learn a bit of patience...but...
The real problem is...
Z-Contact% = 69.9%. That would be dead last among all 162 qualified hitters, by a comfortable margin. Riley swings and misses pitches in the zone more frequently than any other qualified MLB hitter. Going back a few seasons, I can't find a single qualified hitter with a contact rate on pitches in the zone that low. MLB hitters literally never get away with that much swing and miss while keeping a job at the MLB level long enough to be considered an "everyday player".
So Riley is a guy who swings at a lot of bad pitches, and misses a lot of the good pitches he does swing at. To me, that suggests he's a guy who is guessing due to some part of his swing taking too long, and when he guesses wrong he can't make contact.
I'm certainly not a hitting coach, but these plate discipline stats are very worrisome, and I'm not sure they are the kinds of things that can be easily corrected. How do you fix an issue with making contact with strikes? Everything I know about scouting the hit tool (not much) suggests that is a natural skill, not a learned skill.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Joey Gallo is a comp that has come to mind for Riley. He had a z-contact % of 60% in 2015 and 2016 in a total of 153 PAs. Those were his age 21 & 22 seasons. The next season (his first full season) he brought it up to 72%. I think Riley will always have a fair amount of swing and miss to his game. He's had a very flukish start, including home run rates and swinging strikes.
You are correct, Gallo's hit tool is a pretty good comp for Riley considering it is the current worst hit tool in the game.
The glaring differences between Gallo and Riley are fairly substantial...
Gallo has a career 14.3% BB rate to help compensate, and posted very similar walk rates at all MiLB levels. Riley may not even walk half that often.
Gallo has the highest average LD/FB exit velocity in MLB over the last 3 years at 99.9 mph. He has legit 80 grade power that translates to a legit 30% HR/FB rate. Riley is closer to 65 grade power, and can probably support a HR/FB rate at or just below 20%.
Add up everything Gallo is, and he's a ~3 win player, maybe 1-2 wins better in his career year (understanding his 2019 BABIP of .385 is a fluke).
So if someone wants to say Riley is Gallo with half the walks and 2/3 the HR/FB rate, sure, I can buy that. That's pretty much Jake Lamb...which is the comp I've had on Riley all along.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
They are not exact comps. Gallo walks more and has more power and showed this in the minors. Otoh Riley has better minor league strikeout numbers. I don't think he will strike out as much as Gallo in the majors.
I would expect them to differ in these ways in their prime seasons: Gallo 40-45 HRs, Riley 30-35. Gallo walk rate 15%, Riley 8%. Gallo K rate 35%, Riley 25%.
Riley looks like less of a dead pull hitter and might not be as susceptible to the shift. Being RHH as opposed to Gallo being LHH also makes him less susceptible to the shift. So maybe Riley ends up with the higher BABIP.
You realize you literally just described 2016/2017 Jake Lamb with fewer BBs, right?
The same Jake Lamb who was worth 2.4 and 2.5 wins in those seasons.
Cut 3%-5% off Lamb's BB rate and you are left with a .240/.310/.480 player producing less than 2 wins.
That is exactly what I've projected Riley to be for years now...
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Relative to Lamb, Riley should walk less but have more power. Lamb's value has been held down by his defense. I suspect Riley will turn out to be the better defender of the two at third. And more recently Lamb's value has been held down by his inability to stay healthy. Lamb has a career BABIP of .302. Prime Riley should be a bit higher.
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Again, what data points to Riley having more power?
Lamb has demonstrated a bit more absolute raw power: 111.6 mph max exit velocity for Lamb vs 110.9 for Riley.
Peak 2016 Lamb demonstrated more game power: 96.1 mph average exit velocity for Lamb vs 93.4 for Riley.
Nearly peak Lamb demonstrated very similar game power to Riley: 93.0 mph average exit velocity.
I see zero data that suggests Riley has more raw or game power than Lamb when he was at his ~2.5 win peak. If anything, Riley has a bit less power than peak Lamb, as was stated years ago.
So yeah...Jake lamb with less BBs and a hair less power is a good comp for Riley.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I don't think we have seen Riley's max exit velocity. Lamb was drafted as a college player and was a bit older by the time he reached the majors. To me Riley is still a raw young player who has just had a very hot/lucky streak to start his career. But his age and minor league record point to a fairly good chance of success. I would be willing to bet his two best seasons exceed Lamb's two best seasons.
AerchAngel
<B>Secretary of Statistics</B>
Dr. Scheff again with the data points.
It is almost impossible to disprove him.
It is almost impossible to disprove him.