Braves trading for Stroman?

[nsacpi]

i don't think i am.

then I offer for your consideration his career numbers (covering 2017-2019)

slash line of .273/.330/.439

wRC+ 102

BABIP .320

WAR 4.0 in 282 games

xwOBA .299

50PoundHead: Camargo is not good depth? Wow. Tough crowd.
Super: right now? no. he's at -0.4 WAR on the year.

I'm not sure what you meant by that response. I interpreted it as giving excessive weight to his 2019 numbers. Perhaps you did not mean to do that.

 

[nsacpi]

why are we of the belief that the Braves have given up on him?

I second this question.

 

[50PoundHead]

switch-hitter who can't hit a lick LH. five-positions, 1 or 2 of which he actually plays well (liability in the OF, not good at SS).
i think some team may still view him as young and give some extra weight to last year. i don't think anyone views him as any type of coup tho.

His OPS against RHP is higher than it is against LHP this season. Not a huge sample size, but this myth that he's a blind man against RHP likely stems from his terrible rookie season against RHP. His numbers were comparable last year (0.010 platoon difference). What's killing

 

[nsacpi]

His OPS against RHP is higher than it is against LHP this season. Not a huge sample size, but this myth that he's a blind man against RHP likely stems from his terrible rookie season against RHP. His numbers were comparable last year (0.010 platoon difference). What's killing

apparently saying right now no and citing his 2019 numbers is not the same as giving too much weight to his 2019 numbers

 

[50PoundHead]

apparently saying right now no and citing his 2019 numbers is not the same as giving too much weight to his 2019 numbers

He was > .800 OPS against RHP last season with only a 0.010 platoon split. He was lost against RHP as a rookie. I'm really not clinging to anything. Camargo is a utility guy with a lot more value to us than to the Blue Jays. My post got truncated, but what's killing him this year is his power has greatly diminished and his defense is going to be iffy when moved around so much.

Camargo may have been a "sell high" guy after last season (especially after Donaldson was signed), but as Enscheff has pointed out, Anthopoulos values experienced depth. I think it's also important to point out that this is Camargo's first year in baseball where he isn't getting regular ABs. That can be a tough adjustment.

 

[nsacpi]

He was > .800 OPS against RHP last season with only a 0.010 platoon split. He was lost against RHP as a rookie. I'm really not clinging to anything. Camargo is a utility guy with a lot more value to us than to the Blue Jays. My post got truncated, but what's killing him this year is his power has greatly diminished and his defense is going to be iffy when moved around so much.

Camargo may have been a "sell high" guy after last season (especially after Donaldson was signed), but as Enscheff has pointed out, Anthopoulos values experienced depth. I think it's also important to point out that this is Camargo's first year in baseball where he isn't getting regular ABs. That can be a tough adjustment.

There is little doubt that he had some luck on his side in 2017 and 2018 that inflated his apparent value. And this year the luck is working out in the opposite direction. Plus the "underlying data" like xwOBA are not as good this year. But there is always a certain amount of variation year to year both in data that screens out luck and the luck influenced data. That's why a larger sample (as long as it is fairly recent) is better than a small one. Super knows that.

 

[Enscheff]

I’m fine with Stroman.

I would be more content with just running things back with Gausman once he’s healthy. He will accomplish 90% of what Stro does without any of the cost.

I would much prefer to keep our powder dry for a true rotation upgrade.

I'm kinda in this boat as well.

If Thor is doable with parts the Mets overvalue, get him. Otherwise, nothing being mentioned is worth the cost of the upgrade to a team brimming with pitching options.

 

[Super]

then I offer for your consideration his career numbers (covering 2017-2019)

slash line of .273/.330/.439

wRC+ 102

BABIP .320

WAR 4.0 in 282 games

xwOBA .299

50PoundHead: Camargo is not good depth? Wow. Tough crowd.
Super: right now? no. he's at -0.4 WAR on the year.

I'm not sure what you meant by that response. I interpreted it as giving excessive weight to his 2019 numbers. Perhaps you did not mean to do that.

i think this year is probably closer to the "real" Camargo than last year or '17. i think he's better than he's been this year. but i think he's not a very good hitter. his BB rate has fallen back to where you'd expect after an odd jump last year.
what do you expect from him ROS?

 

[Super]

There is little doubt that he had some luck on his side in 2017 and 2018 that inflated his apparent value. And this year the luck is working out in the opposite direction. Plus the "underlying data" like xwOBA are not as good this year. But there is always a certain amount of variation year to year both in data that screens out luck and the luck influenced data. That's why a larger sample (as long as it is fairly recent) is better than a small one. Super knows that.

i'm not really concerned with either sample. his year last year was never close to what he really is. you can almost throw it out. he wasn't going to replicate it. overall, he's at best a utility guy to me. i'm thinking and hoping maybe someone will view him as more and we could upgrade the utility spot.

 

[nsacpi]

i think this year is probably closer to the "real" Camargo than last year or '17. i think he's better than he's been this year. but i think he's not a very good hitter. his BB rate has fallen back to where you'd expect after an odd jump last year.
what do you expect from him ROS?

.720 OPS which is closer to his career mark (.769) and his 2017 mark (.783) than his 2019 mark (.635)

 

[CyYoung31]

I'm kinda in this boat as well.

If Thor is doable with parts the Mets overvalue, get him. Otherwise, nothing being mentioned is worth the cost of the upgrade to a team brimming with pitching options.

Yeah, Stroman doesn’t make much sense to me unless they’ve lost faith in both Folty and Gausman.

 

[Enscheff]

His OPS against RHP is higher than it is against LHP this season. Not a huge sample size, but this myth that he's a blind man against RHP likely stems from his terrible rookie season against RHP. His numbers were comparable last year (0.010 platoon difference). What's killing

MLB FOs are a bit past using OPS as a predictive measure. They use stats much closer to xwOBA since it is a metric derived from contact quality, which is far more skill based than luck based like OPS.

Camargo's xwOBA values (~.320 is MLB average)...

2017 vs RHP: .269
2018 vs RHP: .300
2019 vs RHP: .257

2017 vs LHP: .372
2018 vs LHP: .333
2019 vs LHP: .242 (47 PAs)

The most predictive metric we have tells us Camargo is a below average true talent hitter vs RHP, and is probably an above average true talent hitter vs LHP who was scuffling so far this season in a small sample.

Camargo simply isn't an everyday player on a contending club, and he was correctly pegged as a utility guy to be used primarily against LHP by AA and the FO early this season. Unfortunately, a hot start by Markakis and a rough first month by Camargo caused Snit to scrap that plan, but it was still the right plan once Duvall was out of the picture. It is still the right plan going forward as the roster is currently constructed.

As far as Camargo's value goes...it isn't that high unless a team is pretty dumb. I'd estimate he has roughly the same amount of trade value as Culberson did when AA acquired him from the Dodgers.

 

[TheBravos]

I'm kinda in this boat as well.

If Thor is doable with parts the Mets overvalue, get him. Otherwise, nothing being mentioned is worth the cost of the upgrade to a team brimming with pitching options.

I just want to keep and Waters. They are the only prospects I just do not want to trade. I’m fine with any other packages.

 

[TheBravos]

A lot of overvaluation of Braves assets going on in this thread...

Rule of thumb: if fans are fine with a trade package, it's too little value.

The Braves aren't getting Marcus Stroman for the spare parts the Braves no longer want/need.

I think they would definitely have to add a few high pitching prospects, but to say a two time gold glove center fielder has really no value? I think AA will build the package around Inciarte as the main position player (make it a little wider by adding a Duvall etc and then a Wilson or Wright+ someone like Allard/Ynoa

If that won’t get it done...he will pass.

 

[Enscheff]

I think they would definitely have to add a few high pitching prospects, but to say a two time gold glove center fielder has really no value? I think AA will build the package around Inciarte as the main position player (make it a little wider by adding a Duvall etc and then a Wilson or Wright+ someone like Allard/Ynoa

If that won’t get it done...he will pass.

I would be surprised if AA sells low on an injured Inciarte and lets Riley continue to run around LF after his batting luck has cratered.

AA is all about value, and selling low on an injured MLB player is about the worst value play imaginable. So unless the Jays value Inciarte as the 3 win CFer he has been despite his current numbers and back injury, there is no value play to make involving him.

 

[nsacpi]

I would be surprised if AA sells low on an injured Inciarte and lets Riley continue to run around LF after his batting luck has cratered.

AA is all about value, and selling low on an injured MLB player is about the worst value play imaginable. So unless the Jays value Inciarte as the 3 win CFer he has been despite his current numbers and back injury, there is no value play to make involving him.

Plus left and right field are weaknesses at the moment. Having an alternative like Ender is valuable for a contending team.

 

[Enscheff]

Chris
2:30 The stroman to braves Twitter storm sure is fun!! What would it take for it to actually happen?
Craig Edwards
2:33 As for Stroman's trade value generally, he's the best, most realistic option out there for every team. He isn't Syndergaard, but he's really good and arb eligible next season at a low rate which opens the number of suitors. He will need to make a few more starts because he hasn't started this month. I would imagine it would take one top-50ish prospect plus somebody else near the back of the top-100 to get a deal done assuming Stroman shows he's healthy.

For those keeping score at home that's something like one of Anderson/Waters/Wright/Contreras plus one of Wilson/Muller/Lango/Wentz.

My rough calcs puts Stroman with ~$35M in surplus value (2 wins this year including contenders premium, plus 3.5 wins next year, times $8M per win, minus the $10M-$15M he will be paid, plus the value of being able to non-tender him if his arm falls off).

So a FV 55 pitcher (Anderson/Wright) plus filler, or a FV 50 position player/pitcher plus something else real seems to add up. I don't see any way the Jays can expect to pull a FV 55 position prospect like Waters for Stroman though, unless someone counts Clint Frazier in that category.

Wright plus filler for Stroman, or Wilson plus something else of real value seems like the type of package we can expect it to take to get the size XXXL jock strap in Atlanta.

 

[JohnAdcox]

Bowman said Waters and Anderson in the discussion. Surely not.

Surely not indeed. Two of my three untouchables.

 

[Super]

Chris
2:30 The stroman to braves Twitter storm sure is fun!! What would it take for it to actually happen?
Craig Edwards
2:33 As for Stroman's trade value generally, he's the best, most realistic option out there for every team. He isn't Syndergaard, but he's really good and arb eligible next season at a low rate which opens the number of suitors. He will need to make a few more starts because he hasn't started this month. I would imagine it would take one top-50ish prospect plus somebody else near the back of the top-100 to get a deal done assuming Stroman shows he's healthy.

For those keeping score at home that's something like one of Anderson/Waters/Wright/Contreras plus one of Wilson/Muller/Lango/Wentz.

My rough calcs puts Stroman with ~$35M in surplus value (2 wins this year including contenders premium, plus 3.5 wins next year, times $8M per win, minus the $10M-$15M he will be paid, plus the value of being able to non-tender him if his arm falls off).

So a FV 55 pitcher (Anderson/Wright) plus filler, or a FV 50 position player/pitcher plus something else real seems to add up. I don't see any way the Jays can expect to pull a FV 55 position prospect like Waters for Stroman though, unless someone counts Clint Frazier in that category.

Wright plus filler for Stroman, or Wilson plus something else of real value seems like the type of package we can expect it to take to get the size XXXL jock strap in Atlanta.

Wright + filler - sign me up.

 

[nsacpi]

Wright + filler - sign me up.

Me too. We can make competitive offers on Wheeler and Smith too. We'll reel in a starter and a reliever.