ESPN Insider: Why the Braves should consider trading Kimbrel this winter.

I think there is a lack of appreciation of how valuable a prospect who is say in the top 10 of all minor league prospects is.

Let's just pick out the list from 10 years ago from BA's Top 10 for 2003: Teixeira (26.1), Baldelli (7.3), Reyes (22.4) , Mauer (30.5), Foppert (0.1), Contreras, Phillips (15.2), Matsui, Floyd (11.3), KRod (12.6).

The numbers in parentheses are their total WAR during their pre-free agency years. I'll leave out Contreras and Matsui because they were being paid more than pre-free agent wages in their first six years. But the other eight averaged almost 16 WAR in their pre-agency period. As a rough rule of thumb players get paid a fourth of their market value during those six year. So the average surplus from this group is about 12 WAR.

Ain't no way Kimbrel is going to generate a surplus approaching 12 WAR during his remaining 3 pre-agency years. It is going to be more like 3 or 4 WAR.

So I would say the expected surplus value of someone like Profar is quite a bit higher than Kimbrel.

My two cents. ymmv
 
Heyward said:
You're overrating his value.

He's good, yes, but you arent gonna get a Trout/Harper/Kershaw like you seem to think you'd only trade him for.

Value wise.
Click to expand...

Kimbrel is young, controllable, proven. I don't think you can overrate that. As I said before, the best closer in the game. Electric, farm-grown and local, class act, fan favorite. He's very much a cog in the future of this team.

I'll never understand the salivary dribble over prospects -- maybe it's simply the ideal of what could be.

For every 'special' case like Profar there is a Jesus Montero, Brian Matusz, Dustin Ackley, Trevor Bauer. That's not to say that Profar is going to flop, but it's historically foolhardy to trade something that definitely works for something that might (or even probably) work.
 
In order to pass on a Profar/Kimbrel swap from the Braves end you need to have a profound lack of baseball intelligence.

Nobody with any real clue would favor Kimbrel over Profar right now. I imagine 100% of baseball execs would take Profar in a heartbeat if given the choice. He is at least 2x as valuable as Kimbrel.
 
Hawk said:
Kimbrel is young, controllable, proven. I don't think you can overrate that. As I said before, the best closer in the game. Electric, farm-grown and local, class act, fan favorite. He's very much a cog in the future of this team.

I'll never understand the salivary dribble over prospects -- maybe it's simply the ideal of what could be.

For every 'special' case like Profar there is a Jesus Montero, Brian Matusz, Dustin Ackley, Trevor Bauer. That's not to say that Profar is going to flop, but it's historically foolhardy to trade something that definitely works for something that might (or even probably) work.
Click to expand...

Yes there are flops and successes. But I think you are not fully appreciating how productive and valuable the typical player ranked in BA's Top 10 has been over the years.
 
Enscheff said:
In order to pass on a Profar/Kimbrel swap from the Braves end you need to have a profound lack of baseball intelligence.

Nobody with any real clue would favor Kimbrel over Profar right now. I imagine 100% of baseball execs would take Profar in a heartbeat if given the choice. He is at least 2x as valuable as Kimbrel.
Click to expand...

Haha, I think you are revealing the quality of your own intelligence by making comments like that. Sorry.
 
Not talking about trading Kimbrel for Profar but I'm not really overly impressed with Profar. I know how young he is but I don't think he's star talent. He does lots of things well but doesn't have any elite tools.
 
Hawk said:
Kimbrel is young, controllable, proven. I don't think you can overrate that. As I said before, the best closer in the game. Electric, farm-grown and local, class act, fan favorite. He's very much a cog in the future of this team.

I'll never understand the salivary dribble over prospects -- maybe it's simply the ideal of what could be.

For every 'special' case like Profar there is a Jesus Montero, Brian Matusz, Dustin Ackley, Trevor Bauer. That's not to say that Profar is going to flop, but it's historically foolhardy to trade something that definitely works for something that might (or even probably) work.
Click to expand...

You arent wrong but closers are over-valued.

Boston just won the WS with Uehera as their closer. Who didnt make much money.

You can find relievers/closers off the scrap sheet who dont make a lot.

Kimbrel is very good, historically good but if Profar is on the table, i'd hope Frank considered that.

Longterm position player for 150-162 games at a position of need > closer for 60-70 and cant pitch unless we're leading or tied at home.
 
To think that we once traded Adam LaRoche for Mike Gonzalez. Oy.

That was actually the single most catastrophic mistake made by a Braves GM in recent memory because it led to the ill-fated Thorman/Wilson platoon at first with predictable dismal results which in turn led to the Teixeira trade.

Talk about a cascade of disasters.
 
nsacpi said:
Yes there are flops and successes. But I think you are not fully appreciating how productive and valuable the typical player ranked in BA's Top 10 has been over the years.
Click to expand...

I see what you are saying, and I agree. However, I guess what it all boils down to for me is that I'm not willing to risk a proven commodity like Kimbrel for an unproven. Purely situational ... in other settings I wouldn't think twice when comparing the talents at hand. I think Kimbrel has the potential to be a HOF caliber (*JS) pitcher over the next 15+ years. That type of value is not quantifiable by statistics alone. Especially when you have a new stadium and entertainment complex on the horizon.
 
Hawk said:
Kimbrel is young, controllable, proven. I don't think you can overrate that. As I said before, the best closer in the game. Electric, farm-grown and local, class act, fan favorite. He's very much a cog in the future of this team.

I'll never understand the salivary dribble over prospects -- maybe it's simply the ideal of what could be.

For every 'special' case like Profar there is a Jesus Montero, Brian Matusz, Dustin Ackley, Trevor Bauer. That's not to say that Profar is going to flop, but it's historically foolhardy to trade something that definitely works for something that might (or even probably) work.
Click to expand...

Sure Profar could fail. CK could also get injured and be bad. CK could also leave for a ton of money in a couple of years.

home grown, class act, etc have nothing to do value.

There is ZERO chance that CK is a long term player for us. We will never touch him as FA. We will take the draft pick. If we could have him on series of 1 year contracts at 14 million we'd probably do that. But we are not going to do multi year 10 million plus for a closer.
 
Heyward said:
You arent wrong but closers are over-valued.

Boston just won the WS with Uehera as their closer. Who didnt make much money.

You can find relievers/closers off the scrap sheet who dont make a lot.

Kimbrel is very good, historically good but if Profar is on the table, i'd hope Frank considered that.

Longterm position player for 150-162 games at a position of need > closer for 60-70 and cant pitch unless we're leading or tied at home.
Click to expand...

But the Yankees won 5 World Series with Mo Rivera. Just sayin'.

I respect your position, though.
 
Heyward said:
You arent wrong but closers are over-valued.

Boston just won the WS with Uehera as their closer. Who didnt make much money.

You can find relievers/closers off the scrap sheet who dont make a lot.

Kimbrel is very good, historically good but if Profar is on the table, i'd hope Frank considered that.

Longterm position player for 150-162 games at a position of need > closer for 60-70 and cant pitch unless we're leading or tied at home.
Click to expand...

Can't is not correct.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Sure Profar could fail. CK could also get injured and be bad. CK could also leave for a ton of money in a couple of years.

home grown, class act, etc have nothing to do value.

There is ZERO chance that CK is a long term player for us. We will never touch him as FA. We will take the draft pick. If we could have him on series of 1 year contracts at 14 million we'd probably do that. But we are not going to do multi year 10 million plus for a closer.
Click to expand...

If we could sign him for 8-10 million, i'd do that in a heartbeat.

But odds he accepts that when he could get 15-20 million in FA, unlikely.
 
Heyward said:
If we could sign him for 8-10 million, i'd do that in a heartbeat.

But odds he accepts that when he could get 15-20 million in FA, unlikely.
Click to expand...

I'd do 5/50 now. When he's a FA....not so sure. Only so much mileage on a high power arm like that....

But you are right...he's going to get >15 million for >3 years.
 
thethe said:
I believe that there is still a substantial pipeline of top end bullpen arms in the minor leagues that have a chance at being a closer. Nobody will be as good as Kimbrel but you don't need a Kimbrel to win a world series.
Click to expand...

I don't see anyone we get in return being worth more than Kimbrell over the next 3 yrs. And the drop off from Kimbrell will indeed be substantial. We may be "ok", we may not be ok. But trading away the best closer in baseball is not smart move if you are trying to win a WS. COuld we still win a WS without CK? Sure, but it will be much easier with CK than without him.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top