Official Offseason Thread

AA appreciates the flexibility and low risk that comes with one-year deals. Makes it likely that he picks up the options on Teheran, Muk and Flowers.
 
The REAL OFF Season begins tomorrow regardless of tonight's outcome. Every thing up to this point has been minor news and speculation. Now, actual news will come forth including which players decline options, get QOs, and move around via trade. IMO, this is the most interesting part of a baseball season culminated by the Winter meetings.
 
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Enscheff said:
As best I can tell, here is the list of FA SPs who have produced an xwOBA as good or better than Julio over the last 2 seasons:

Gerrit Cole 410.665 for 1616 0.255
Hyun-Jin Ryu 289.253 for 1044 0.279
Stephen Strasburg 384.565 for 1379 0.280
Zack Wheeler 447.519 for 1568 0.289
Wade Miley 317.745 for 1057 0.303
Alex Wood 239.967 for 785 0.308
Dallas Keuchel 416.761 for 1360 0.308
Michael Pineda 187.183 for 599 0.314
Jake Odorizzi 431.694 for 1366 0.318
Madison Bumgarner 440.064 for 1389 0.319
Julio Teheran 471.477 for 1472 0.322
Kyle Gibson 490.417 for 1530 0.322

So if the idea is to decline Julio's option, and then sign a better pitcher for less money, those are the options. Guys like Stras and Cole are clearly out of the Braves price range. Others like Wheeler and Bumgarner will likely have a QO attached. Others like Pineda and Wood haven't been very durable at all. Others like DK and Ryu will almost certainly cost a lot more than Julio.

It's starting to look like $11M for 1 year of Julio isn't such a bad deal. I keep flip flopping on whether or not the option should be picked up.
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How about picking up the JT option. Then try to trade Folty for a good young player, any position, to a team that is close to being competitive but needs pitching. I think a team could be convinced to overpay for Folty. I’m not sold on Folty, he could turn into a pumpkin anytime.

The money saved by trading Folty would probably pay half the salary of a replacement.
 
JxnMissFan said:
How about picking up the JT option. Then try to trade Folty for a good young player, any position, to a team that is close to being competitive but needs pitching. I think a team could be convinced to overpay for Folty. I’m not sold on Folty, he could turn into a pumpkin anytime.

The money saved by trading Folty would probably pay half the salary of a replacement.
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So your premise is that a contending team will be looking to trade a MLB-ready position player in exchange for a guy everyone knows is volatile? And then use the ~$7M in savings to help acquire a ~$14M SP that will be roughly as good as Teheran, and a likely downgrade from a healthy Folty?

I would be interested in identifying such a team with such a player they can afford to trade for Folty and still be a contender.
 
Enscheff said:
So your premise is that a contending team will be looking to trade a MLB-ready position player in exchange for a guy everyone knows is volatile? And then use the ~$7M in savings to help acquire a ~$14M SP that will be roughly as good as Teheran, and a likely downgrade from a healthy Folty?

I would be interested in identifying such a team with such a player they can afford to trade for Folty and still be a contender.
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The easy answer would be the Pardes. Maybe Dbacks or Sox. There is also the possibility of a team that feels its window is short and Folty is that win now piece.

Really the concept of the idea is to trade the most volatile asset on the team for a solid consistent asset. Let’s face it. Folty’s tenure as a Brave is limited to him reaching free agency or an arm injury whichever comes first. If a team will over pay for him let him go. The Braves proved last year they can win without him.
 
Last offseason I was a Bryce Harper conspiracy theorist. I think this offseason I'm getting into the DonaldsonBetts conspiracy. I think we have both Donaldson and Betts on our roster next year. I've been doing some calculations and I've come to the conclusion that despite all evidence to the contrary, we can make this happen without disrupting our contention window. A few frogs may become gay in the process, but I think it's possible.
 
Enscheff said:
As best I can tell, here is the list of FA SPs who have produced an xwOBA as good or better than Julio over the last 2 seasons:

Gerrit Cole 410.665 for 1616 0.255
Hyun-Jin Ryu 289.253 for 1044 0.279
Stephen Strasburg 384.565 for 1379 0.280
Zack Wheeler 447.519 for 1568 0.289
Wade Miley 317.745 for 1057 0.303
Alex Wood 239.967 for 785 0.308
Dallas Keuchel 416.761 for 1360 0.308
Michael Pineda 187.183 for 599 0.314
Jake Odorizzi 431.694 for 1366 0.318
Madison Bumgarner 440.064 for 1389 0.319
Julio Teheran 471.477 for 1472 0.322
Kyle Gibson 490.417 for 1530 0.322

So if the idea is to decline Julio's option, and then sign a better pitcher for less money, those are the options. Guys like Stras and Cole are clearly out of the Braves price range. Others like Wheeler and Bumgarner will likely have a QO attached. Others like Pineda and Wood haven't been very durable at all. Others like DK and Ryu will almost certainly cost a lot more than Julio.

It's starting to look like $11M for 1 year of Julio isn't such a bad deal. I keep flip flopping on whether or not the option should be picked up.
Click to expand...

It’s tough because in a vacuum 11 mil for Teheran is a solid value. The issue is that he’s the 5th starter. The team has made that clear with how he’s been deployed in the postseason these past 2 years. We need to fill out our top 4 either way and cutting Teheran for a kid gives us 11 mil more to work with.
 
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