Official Offseason Thread

Trading for Betts is an enormous risk for the Braves. The Sox will ask for Waters or Pache and there’s a chance they’ll ask for Anderson or Wright. Can the Braves trade any of those kids while also being able to sign him to what he’ll end up asking for? Should the Braves try if he’s available? Sure. Can they pull it off? I don’t know if they can.
 
Southcack77 said:
It's hard for me to see the Braves investing heavily in starting pitching in free agency, but I will say that is a pretty deep class.

The Bumgardner, Keuchel, Hamels, Kyle Gibson, Ryu tier is interesting to me. I could see how that might end up happening on a 1 or 2 year deal.

But there are a ton of decent veterans who should be ok on the backend of a rotation and I'm not sure they are going to have a huge market.
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Yeah - I think that's the level you target on a short-term deal. A lot likely depends on just how much AA & Company believe Wright/Wilson/Anderson can take a big step forward. I think it's going to take whomever signs MadBum three years at a minimum. Would AA go there (or maybe even a better question - Would that be a really bad investment come 2022?)? Who knows?

If he could get Hamels on a 1 year, relatively high-AAV deal, that might be the best route to go - and that's the reason I've mentioned him several times. The first $11 million of what you'd give him is covered by letting Julio walk - if you could get him for something in the $17 million range for next season, that still leaves you $7 million of what you paid Keuchel in 2019 to spend elsewhere. Like with Bumgarner, you KNOW the postseason starts aren't too big for him mentally - it's just a question of whether he can execute physically. If you had one of those guys that could make Folty your #4 starter in a postseason series, that could be huge. Even Hamels would likely be a pretty significant step-up from Julio.

I don't think you're going to get Bumgarner/Wheeler/Keuchel/Ryu/Odorizzi/Gibson/Wood/Smyly on a 1-year deal - the question is, does AA believe that Wright/Wilson/Anderson will be ready to step into the rotation for good late this year or in 2021 from the start or are they trade chips??? If he doesn't believe they will, he might as well entertain 2-3 year deals for that type of SP that can likely give you #3/#4 level production for the next couple years.

I would expect AA to be "involved" in lots of discussions if anyone makes higher-end, inexpensive Pitchers available - just like he said he was last winter - I just don't see him "backing up the truck" for anybody at this point. Soroka may not fit the "Ace" profile, but he's certainly close enough that you shouldn't have any qualms about running him out there in a Game 1/Game 4/Game 7 against ANYBODY if he proves he can handle a full workload next season.
 
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Southcack77 said:
It's hard for me to see the Braves investing heavily in starting pitching in free agency, but I will say that is a pretty deep class.

The Bumgardner, Keuchel, Hamels, Kyle Gibson, Ryu tier is interesting to me. I could see how that might end up happening on a 1 or 2 year deal.

But there are a ton of decent veterans who should be ok on the backend of a rotation and I'm not sure they are going to have a huge market.
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One of the more frustrating guys out there. Pitched his way to the back of the Twins' rotation and, believe me, given what was in front of him, that's quite an accomplishment. I'd vote "no," but he'd probably come really cheap.
 
If the Sox really want to use up the bulk of Betts' trade value on Ender Inciarte, then that's a quantity for quality swap I want AA to make.

I'm going to guess they are aiming a little higher for the return on an MVP caliber player, and he ultimately plays his final season in Boston...until at least the deadline.
 
Enscheff said:
If the Sox really want to use up the bulk of Betts' trade value on Ender Inciarte, then that's a quantity for quality swap I want AA to make.

I'm going to guess they are aiming a little higher for the return on an MVP caliber player, and he ultimately plays his final season in Boston...until at least the deadline.
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Dont think Chaim Bloom will give Betts up for anything other than premium prospects.
 
Enscheff said:
If the Sox really want to use up the bulk of Betts' trade value on Ender Inciarte, then that's a quantity for quality swap I want AA to make.

I'm going to guess they are aiming a little higher for the return on an MVP caliber player, and he ultimately plays his final season in Boston...until at least the deadline.
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No doubt. They’d definitely want a premium prospect in there. I was just saying that Ender would be appealing to them also since they’d be losing an outfielder.
 
nsacpi said:
Dont think Chaim Bloom will give Betts up for anything other than premium prospects.
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That's my thoughts too, but folks like to float ideas where their favorite team gets a star for a collection of castoffs.

I don't think the Red Sox will find an offer for 1 year of Betts that is more valuable to them then having a 5+ win player anchor a contending lineup, so my money is on him not going anywhere.
 
Hudson2 said:
No doubt. They’d definitely want a premium prospect in there. I was just saying that Ender would be appealing to them also since they’d be losing an outfielder.
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Ender plus a "premium prospect" is way too much to pay for 1 season of Betts at $28M.

Folks insist on shoehorning players into trades that simply don't make sense for both sides.
 
Then there are guys like this hack at TC:

https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/10...stove-mookie-betts-contract-extension-red-sox

The guys doesn't even have basic reading comprehension skills, morphing this quote from Petriello:

"Possible key pieces: Outfield prospects Waters (No. 1) or Pache (No. 2); one of the many Atlanta pitching prospects; perhaps veteran outfielder Ender Inciarte if the Red Sox are also moving on from Jackie Bradley Jr."

into this completely outlandish 4 for 1 trade proposal (notice the "and"):

"Petriello suggested that the Braves would probably have to part with something like Pache, Waters, another pitching prospect (likely Ian Anderson. I know, I see you wincing and grimacing right now) and Ender Inciarte."

Petriello isn't off base...one of the OFers plus an arm is probably exactly the type of overpay it would take to let Betts go. If they also were going to dump JBJ, Ender would make some sense in there somewhere...perhaps.

Then the TC hack comes in and misreads a simple article, coming up with an absurd Pache/Waters/Anderson/Ender package for 1 season of Betts "idea". Worse, he then continues the article as if such a trade wouldn't a complete disaster for the Braves in the medium/long term. What a completely useless "expert" article that turned into...
 
Enscheff said:
Then there are guys like this hack at TC:

https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/10...stove-mookie-betts-contract-extension-red-sox

The guys doesn't even have basic reading comprehension skills, morphing this quote from Petriello:

"Possible key pieces: Outfield prospects Waters (No. 1) or Pache (No. 2); one of the many Atlanta pitching prospects; perhaps veteran outfielder Ender Inciarte if the Red Sox are also moving on from Jackie Bradley Jr."

into this completely outlandish 4 for 1 trade proposal (notice the "and"):

"Petriello suggested that the Braves would probably have to part with something like Pache, Waters, another pitching prospect (likely Ian Anderson. I know, I see you wincing and grimacing right now) and Ender Inciarte."

Petriello isn't off base...one of the OFers plus an arm is probably exactly the type of overpay it would take to let Betts go. If they also were going to dump JBJ, Ender would make some sense in there somewhere...perhaps.

Then the TC hack comes in and misreads a simple article, coming up with an absurd Pache/Waters/Anderson/Ender package for 1 season of Betts "idea". Worse, he then continues the article as if such a trade wouldn't a complete disaster for the Braves in the medium/long term. What a completely useless "expert" article that turned into...
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My read on the Bosox situation is that they are trying to cut payroll and are in a somewhat difficult spot to do that AND get significant talent back. I think they know Martinez isn't going to opt out and no one else is going o pay that much for a DH especially when the balls are flying out the way they did in 2019. Sale and Price are hurt and likely to be bad contracts.

I guess it depends on how badly they want/need to cut payroll. If it is bad enough, then you might be able to swing a blockbuster at fairly low cost as long as you are willing to take on salary. Something like: Betts & Eovaldi for Inciarte, Teheran (they could keep or cut and pay buy out), Wright and Toussaint. Red Sox cut potentially $29M (if they cut Teheran and pay his buy out), gain a replacement CF who might bring 3 WAR and gain a couple of upside arms. Braves get Betts and play him in CF, even if for one year, add Eovaldi to take over the Teheran role at the back of the rotation (and maybe more if he finds his better control) and still might have enough to bring back Donaldson.
 
Guess I should have defined my comment as relating to Braves. IIRC Evan Grant predicts the deal for JD and he usually speaks as knowledgeable about the Rangers. I would not be totally surprised if some really desperate team bit the bullet on Betts trying to be relevant.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'm not sure that Donaldson is going to get as big a guarantee as some folks are projecting.

It would go against the trend, I think.
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Cutch just got 3/50 and Brantley just got 2/32. Both are inferior players to JD, and I think JD can bank on a 2-3 year deal at a higher AAV than both of those players got.

That's something like 2/40+ or 3/60...a 3/70 deal probably doesn't happen, but some team might want to stretch that $60M over 4 years to lessen the salary cap hit, and may end up guaranteeing more overall cash to make it happen.
 
Enscheff said:
Cutch just got 3/50 and Brantley just got 2/32. Both are inferior players to JD, and I think JD can bank on a 2-3 year deal at a higher AAV than both of those players got.

That's something like 2/40+ or 3/60...a 3/70 deal probably doesn't happen, but some team might want to stretch that $60M over 4 years to lessen the salary cap hit, and may end up guaranteeing more overall cash to make it happen.
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Donaldson is a couple of years older than both of those guys were when they signed their deals, I believe.

My guess is something more in the 50-55 million dollar range for a guarantee. I've seen some estimates north of 70m and I don't think that's in the cards at all. But, I could be wrong.
 
Enscheff said:
Cutch just got 3/50 and Brantley just got 2/32. Both are inferior players to JD, and I think JD can bank on a 2-3 year deal at a higher AAV than both of those players got.

That's something like 2/40+ or 3/60...a 3/70 deal probably doesn't happen, but some team might want to stretch that $60M over 4 years to lessen the salary cap hit, and may end up guaranteeing more overall cash to make it happen.
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Neither of them had a QO to them like JD will. That said, i think AA would offer a high AAV 2 year deal, 3 years would get him to return, dont know if AA does that.
 
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