Official Offseason Thread

Considering Betts salary is near 30 million, i dont know what his value truly is.

I'd imagine Boston would want a premium deal, and i dont know if anyone would be willing to do that given Mookie is intent on testing FA, and is very likely to get 300 mil+ in FA.
 
You both bring up good points. I'm guessing JD gets plenty of offers in the 2/40+ range, and the first team to offer 3 years gets him.

It's hard to see AA giving up a pick in the 30s to sign JD for 2/45 though, so I'd be pretty surprised if he's a Brave in 2020.

I suspect AA will be shopping in the non-QO aisle of the FA market.
 
Rosenthal said the dealbreaker on a Cole deal will be the 8th year. He's already thrown 1200+ innings in the regular season and the playoffs included. 200+ innings 4 of the last 5 years. As good as he has been, that can be a tricky bad contract down the line. Already a lot of tread on his arm.

Pitcher contracts that big havent worked out, but some have ie CC/Scherzer/Verlander/Kershaw, but given how good Cole has been, i think a minimum is 7/220 for him, that passes Price's deal. His agent is Boras, so i can see Boras try to get him to be the first 300 million dollar pitcher, 8/300 would be something.
 
Heyward said:
Considering Betts salary is near 30 million, i dont know what his value truly is.

I'd imagine Boston would want a premium deal, and i dont know if anyone would be willing to do that given Mookie is intent on testing FA, and is very likely to get 300 mil+ in FA.
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Projecting him as a 5-6 win player earning $28 puts his surplus vale around $20M-$30M. That's like a FV 50 prospect, and there's no way their new GM is going to unload an MVP candidate for such a mediocre prospect as his first order of business.

I don't think Boston is going to find any team offering the premium package of young talent required to part ways with Betts. Teams simply don't pay a premium in young talent for short term stars anymore because they have all figured out how stupid that is.

Something centered around a player like Riley might make sense if they can sell him as the "next Troy Glaus" to ignorant fans, but I don't see how a team with a mega budget hoping to contend with the Yankees can trade away an MVP caliber player before the trade deadline.
 
Enscheff said:
You both bring up good points. I'm guessing JD gets plenty of offers in the 2/40+ range, and the first team to offer 3 years gets him.

It's hard to see AA giving up a pick in the 30s to sign JD for 2/45 though, so I'd be pretty surprised if he's a Brave in 2020.

I suspect AA will be shopping in the non-QO aisle of the FA market.
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I think AA would do a 2 year deal for JD, if anyone did a 3 year deal, he's most likely gone.
 
Heyward said:
Rosenthal said the dealbreaker on a Cole deal will be the 8th year. He's already thrown 1200+ innings in the regular season and the playoffs included. 200+ innings 4 of the last 5 years. As good as he has been, that can be a tricky bad contract down the line. Already a lot of tread on his arm.

Pitcher contracts that big havent worked out, but some have ie CC/Scherzer/Verlander/Kershaw, but given how good Cole has been, i think a minimum is 7/220 for him, that passes Price's deal. His agent is Boras, so i can see Boras try to get him to be the first 300 million dollar pitcher, 8/300 would be something.
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I think $200M is a forgone conclusion at this point, and we know it will end badly.

Whichever team gives him that contract is hoping to win in the next 3-4 years and then deal with the consequences later. Chances are the GM who signs him won't even be around for the end of the contract anyways, so what does he care?
 
Enscheff said:
Projecting him as a 5-6 win player earning $28 puts his surplus vale around $20M-$30M. That's like a FV 50 prospect, and there's no way their new GM is going to unload an MVP candidate for such a mediocre prospect as his first order of business.

I don't think Boston is going to find any team offering the premium package of young talent required to part ways with Betts. Teams simply don't pay a premium in young talent for short term stars anymore because they have all figured out how stupid that is.

Something centered around a player like Riley might make sense if they can sell him as the "next Troy Glaus" to ignorant fans, but I don't see how a team with a mega budget hoping to contend with the Yankees can trade away an MVP caliber player before the trade deadline.
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Thing is, offers will get worse at the deadline. No QO attatched, Machado wasnt even dealt for much.

But yeah, i dont think they'll get the offers, to trade him away. Teams are too smart now for the most part.
 
Heyward said:
I think AA would do a 2 year deal for JD, if anyone did a 3 year deal, he's most likely gone.
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Guess we will see. Once JD rejects the QO the Braves will be in line to gain a very high draft pick if he signs elsewhere, so the draft pick cost to sign JD will be higher for the Braves than any other team in MLB.

The Braves haven't given up a draft pick to sign a QO FA since...Glavine?
 
Enscheff said:
Guess we will see. Once JD rejects the QO the Braves will be in line to gain a very high draft pick if he signs elsewhere, so the draft pick cost to sign JD will be higher for the Braves than any other team in MLB.

The Braves haven't given up a draft pick to sign a QO FA since...Glavine?
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Didnt realize we'd lose a pick if we signed JD, yeah he's probably gone if we get a pick in the 30's. We'll need those picks to replenish the farm with Pache/Waters/Anderson on the way soon.
 
Enscheff said:
You both bring up good points. I'm guessing JD gets plenty of offers in the 2/40+ range, and the first team to offer 3 years gets him.

It's hard to see AA giving up a pick in the 30s to sign JD for 2/45 though, so I'd be pretty surprised if he's a Brave in 2020.

I suspect AA will be shopping in the non-QO aisle of the FA market.
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Given the situation in our lower minors, it would be nice to get that compensatory pick for Donaldson. I just hope we're able to find an adequate replacement. The only reasonable one on the free agent market seems to be Moose. Maybe I could see us going a little cheaper here with a signing like Frazier, Asdrubal, or a Jedd Gyorko reclamation project in order to go more expensive at catcher, outfield, and maybe pitching. But if we miss out on Moose I think I'd rather see us explore a trade option who might not be as expensive financially, but has more talent than the three aforementioned options.

To me, getting Grandal would be a top priority for me and if we have to get creative at 3rd to make that happen then I'm all for it.
 
Heyward said:
Didnt realize we'd lose a pick if we signed JD, yeah he's probably gone if we get a pick in the 30's. We'll need those picks to replenish the farm with Pache/Waters/Anderson on the way soon.
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Pretty sure he's just saying that the Braves would be forgoing the compensatory pick they could get if Donaldson signed elsewhere.
 
Heyward said:
Didnt realize we'd lose a pick if we signed JD, yeah he's probably gone if we get a pick in the 30's. We'll need those picks to replenish the farm with Pache/Waters/Anderson on the way soon.
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We won't be losing a pick, we just won't be gaining a pick that is likely to be in the low to mid 30's, which is very valuable given our current situation. I can see arguments both for and against bringing Donaldson back, but if a team offers him more than two years then I think it basically eliminates him from discussion. Two years is the max I see him getting from the Braves. Mayyyyyyybbbbbeeee a 2+1.

But honestly I think AA would rather lose Donaldson, take the high draft pick, and sign or trade for someone like Moose or Escobar for less money. Hell, Moose may end up being better than Donaldson next year anyway given where they are at age-wise.
 
BeanieAntics said:
We won't be losing a pick, we just won't be gaining a pick that is likely to be in the low to mid 30's, which is very valuable given our current situation. I can see arguments both for and against bringing Donaldson back, but if a team offers him more than two years then I think it basically eliminates him from discussion. Two years is the max I see him getting from the Braves. Mayyyyyyybbbbbeeee a 2+1.

But honestly I think AA would rather lose Donaldson, take the high draft pick, and sign or trade for someone like Moose or Escobar for less money. Hell, Moose may end up being better than Donaldson next year anyway given where they are at age-wise.
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We lose a little if we replace Donaldson with Moose. But the salary will be lower and we get the pick.
 
If the Braves have $30M to fill C, 3B, cOF and maybe a SP, it probably doesn't make a lot of sense to give up $20M and the 35th pick in the draft to reacquire JD. No other team has a draft pick cost anywhere near that high to sign JD.

There are many ways to spread those resources around, especially when trades enter the picture.

I don't expect to see JD in a Braves uniform for 2020.
 
Then there's Bowman chiming in with another ignorant take comparing Riley's power to Sano's...

Riley's LD/FB average exit velocity: 94.1 mph
Sano's LD/FB average exit velocity: 99.6 mph

Riley doesn't have anywhere near the power of Sano. He doesn't have anywhere near the power of Judge.

When talking about Riley's contact problems, folks really need to stop comparing him to hitters with power that completely dwarfs his. It is an erroneous statement to say "Riley has that kind of power, and it's hard to find". Riley has above average power, and it absolutely is not that hard to find. Contact issues can be worked around when a player has the power of Sano or Gallo, or plays defense like Baez. Riley is not like those players at all, minus the contact issues.
 
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Since JD is technically not a FA yet, has stated he would like to, entertain, consider or is open to staying here and AA is open to one of the many suggestions on these forums such at 2 for x or 3 for x at how many ever dollars, is there any rule from a team giving their own players contracts during the post season?
 
Yeah I don’t see AA going past 2 years for Donaldson. I’d explore a trade for a young cheap 3b and make Grandal my top priority the a COF. Anyway Escobar could be available from the DBacks?
 
it seems more and more unlikely Donaldson will be back, and that bums me out. i understand the reasoning, but man he was fun to have on the team.
 
As best I can tell, here is the list of FA SPs who have produced an xwOBA as good or better than Julio over the last 2 seasons:

Gerrit Cole 410.665 for 1616 0.255
Hyun-Jin Ryu 289.253 for 1044 0.279
Stephen Strasburg 384.565 for 1379 0.280
Zack Wheeler 447.519 for 1568 0.289
Wade Miley 317.745 for 1057 0.303
Alex Wood 239.967 for 785 0.308
Dallas Keuchel 416.761 for 1360 0.308
Michael Pineda 187.183 for 599 0.314
Jake Odorizzi 431.694 for 1366 0.318
Madison Bumgarner 440.064 for 1389 0.319
Julio Teheran 471.477 for 1472 0.322
Kyle Gibson 490.417 for 1530 0.322

So if the idea is to decline Julio's option, and then sign a better pitcher for less money, those are the options. Guys like Stras and Cole are clearly out of the Braves price range. Others like Wheeler and Bumgarner will likely have a QO attached. Others like Pineda and Wood haven't been very durable at all. Others like DK and Ryu will almost certainly cost a lot more than Julio.

It's starting to look like $11M for 1 year of Julio isn't such a bad deal. I keep flip flopping on whether or not the option should be picked up.
 
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