Global Events & Politics Überthread

striker42 said:
I hope the Taliban keeps it in check but I'm worried about the situation there deteriorating with thousands of American citizens still in the city. There are a lot of ways this situation can go sideways.

Having the Taliban that close to a few thousand US troops reminds me of a line from The Hunt for Red October. The National Security Advisor is meeting with the Russian ambassador ans says "It would be well for your government to consider that having your ships and ours, your aircraft and ours, in such proximity... is inherently DANGEROUS. Wars have begun that way, Mr. Ambassador."

All it will take is one misunderstanding, one hot head on either side who has lost friends in the war, one criminal being mistaken as a Taliban fighter and things can deteriorate.
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No telling how much control the leadership has over their fighters. But it seems they realize they are better off with their project of rebuilding some sort of medieval kingdom if the people who want out are allowed to leave. The part that is a bit hard to calculate right now is how big that number might be. The previous Taliban rule was pretty traumatic for the people of Afghanistan. I can't imagine too many of them want to be part of Take 2. My guess is over half the country would leave given the opportunity. This is going to become a big problem for Pakistan and Iran and maybe some of the other neighboring countries.

The Hazaras are the third biggest ethnic group and speak Persian and are culturally close to Iran. They are mostly Shi'a, and therefore have been one of the most repressed and persecuted groups in Afghanistan. My guess is Iran will want to take care of them in some way. All this is no longer our problem. But it is about to become someone else's problem. And ultimately I don't think we are going to be able to entirely avoid the fallout.
 
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Pakistan has been fighting us and the Afghans for years so I'm not sure how good of an option that is for anyone formerly in the Afghan army or allied to the US. Unmarried females are being forcefully married to Taliban fighters on the spot. Lots of married former allies are being killed, leaving.... unmarried females.

The US will take a prestige hit for this fiasco of a retreat and then go on about our business. The consequences for Afghans will last generations.
 
nsacpi said:
No telling how much control the leadership has over their fighters. But it seems they realize they are better off with their project of rebuilding some sort of medieval kingdom if the people who want out are allowed to leave. The part that is a bit hard to calculate right now is how big that number might be. The previous Taliban rule was pretty traumatic for the people of Afghanistan. I can't imagine too many of them want to be part of Take 2. My guess is over half the country would leave given the opportunity. This is going to become a big problem for Pakistan and Iran and maybe some of the other neighboring countries.

The Hazaras are the third biggest ethnic group and speak Persian and are culturally close to Iran. They are mostly Shi'a, and therefore have been one of the most repressed and persecuted groups in Afghanistan. My guess is Iran will want to take care of them in some way. All this is no longer our problem. But it is about to become someone else's problem. And ultimately I don't think we are going to be able to entirely avoid the fallout.
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The one stabilizing influence right now is the fact that the only people who want the western powers out of Afghanistan more than Biden is the Taliban. They have a large incentive not to provoke the US right now. That more than anything is keeping American citizens safe.

I think the Afghan civil war is far from over. People in the west think of Afghanistan as some kind of homogeneous monolith. In reality it's a collection of tribes with a long history of animosity towards one another. You're already seeing there's an undercurrent of resistance there. I think it's just a matter of time before it organizes and you see a continuation of the civil war that was going on even before we invaded.
 
striker42 said:
The one stabilizing influence right now is the fact that the only people who want the western powers out of Afghanistan more than Biden is the Taliban. They have a large incentive not to provoke the US right now. That more than anything is keeping American citizens safe.

I think the Afghan civil war is far from over. People in the west think of Afghanistan as some kind of homogeneous monolith. In reality it's a collection of tribes with a long history of animosity towards one another. You're already seeing there's an undercurrent of resistance there. I think it's just a matter of time before it organizes and you see a continuation of the civil war that was going on even before we invaded.
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The USSR couldn't stabilize the region.

The US couldn't.

I really hope that XI tries.
 
I keep going back to Biden's response to the question about people falling from the US planes. I honestly can't believe that was his reaction to it. Not regretful, not compassionate, angry. He acted as if the passing of a couple days time made it totally irrelevant. Honestly, I think Trump would have at least feigned compassion there. Biden's reaction was startling.

The deflection, the blaming of others, the refusal to admit a mistake are all things that are disappointing from a guy who promised to be different. They're the same sort of political gamesmanship that we've seen all too often. But they're kind of expected at this point. Biden is doing damage control and blaming others is a tried and true tactic. But that response to the people falling from the planes should be something none of us forget.
 
striker42 said:
I keep going back to Biden's response to the question about people falling from the US planes. I honestly can't believe that was his reaction to it. Not regretful, not compassionate, angry. He acted as if the passing of a couple days time made it totally irrelevant. Honestly, I think Trump would have at least feigned compassion there. Biden's reaction was startling.

The deflection, the blaming of others, the refusal to admit a mistake are all things that are disappointing from a guy who promised to be different. They're the same sort of political gamesmanship that we've seen all too often. But they're kind of expected at this point. Biden is doing damage control and blaming others is a tried and true tactic. But that response to the people falling from the planes should be something none of us forget.
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I think at this point we can't really lay any blame on Biden.

Does anyone think he is making any decisions?

I feel bad for him honestly. In reality, the worst person in all of this is his wife. How could she just stand by and watch this unfold?
 
striker42 said:
I keep going back to Biden's response to the question about people falling from the US planes. I honestly can't believe that was his reaction to it. Not regretful, not compassionate, angry. He acted as if the passing of a couple days time made it totally irrelevant. Honestly, I think Trump would have at least feigned compassion there. Biden's reaction was startling.

The deflection, the blaming of others, the refusal to admit a mistake are all things that are disappointing from a guy who promised to be different. They're the same sort of political gamesmanship that we've seen all too often. But they're kind of expected at this point. Biden is doing damage control and blaming others is a tried and true tactic. But that response to the people falling from the planes should be something none of us forget.
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I couldn't agree more. The tone and exclamation was just... unreal.
 
Biden doesn't know whats happening.

People afflicted with Dementia respond in these ways when they are confused.
 
Matthew Dowd
@matthewjdowd
·
2h
as I have watched much of the coverage of Afghanistan it reminds me

of how so many buy into an initial narrative and then have an extremely

difficult time coming off that narrative even as facts and logic clearly

present themselves different than the original narrative.
 
57Brave said:
Matthew Dowd
@matthewjdowd
·
2h
as I have watched much of the coverage of Afghanistan it reminds me

of how so many buy into an initial narrative and then have an extremely

difficult time coming off that narrative even as facts and logic clearly

present themselves different than the original narrative.
Click to expand...

Could you explain to us how the original narrative was wrong based on the facts and logic that have since emerged?
 
57Brave said:
Matthew Dowd
@matthewjdowd
·
2h
as I have watched much of the coverage of Afghanistan it reminds me

of how so many buy into an initial narrative and then have an extremely

difficult time coming off that narrative even as facts and logic clearly

present themselves different than the original narrative.
Click to expand...

Human beings were falling to their deaths from American planes. The Taliban is already accumulating lists of people who aided NATO countries. We're in a position where we have to rely on the restraint of the Taliban to safely get our people out.

We could evacuate everyone we want out of there safely and it still is a giant fiasco. We aren't the ones in control of the situation at the moment and that's a very, very bad thing.

Reading what Dowd has written, he's basing this on American deaths. He seems to completely ignore those who worked with us and who we've promised to protect. Those people are in absolute mortal danger.
 
striker42 said:
Human beings were falling to their deaths from American planes. The Taliban is already accumulating lists of people who aided NATO countries. We're in a position where we have to rely on the restraint of the Taliban to safely get our people out.

We could evacuate everyone we want out of there safely and it still is a giant fiasco. We aren't the ones in control of the situation at the moment and that's a very, very bad thing.

Reading what Dowd has written, he's basing this on American deaths. He seems to completely ignore those who worked with us and who we've promised to protect. Those people are in absolute mortal danger.
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Apparently we are charging people $2,000+ for safe passage out?
 
"The Taliban are hunting for people who worked for or collaborated with Nato and American forces and are threatening to kill or harm their relatives if they do not surrender, according to a confidential UN threat assessment document.

The document, which circulated in Kabul today, warned that Taliban fighters were going house to house looking for those included on prepared list of names, while also conducting searches among the crowds gathered at Kabul airport waiting to be evacuated."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...collaborators-says-secret-un-report-s7d60hxxs

Yeah, the facts have changed so much. Things are just rosy now.
 
there are stories of French citizens shaving the heads of women , parading them through the streets then hanging them with other collaborators after liberation

Did none of you ever have a history class ?
Or even watch a documentary
To understand this is what happens

your naivete is astounding
////

Perhaps you are aware of the treatment of Tories after the American Revolution

no ?
hmm
 
one more thing.
Watching the everyday hysteria of many of you here , many many of you, there would have been a collective cheering from the top steps the day we entered Afghanistan
Then the woodies over Shock and Awe.
You know who you are

If you dont it speaks volumes to your self awareness.
Talking the infancy of MAGA
.....

wear a ****ing mask --- take and encourage other to take the shot
 
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