Around the League - 2021 Szn

IMO AA will try hard to keep both Soler and Rosario. Bauer and Ozuna will play big roles in the CBA. Result: Ozuna will never suit up for Atlanta again. AA will have to make some trades this off season: Pache and Waters may go on the block. Dont forget the supposed effort/conversations re: Reynolds. LJ is a question mark, Minter is on thin ice, Newcomb is probably done in Atlanta. Duvall must go for a multi year deal, Joc has never been an everyday player. Ergo AA passes on Joc but takes Duvall option but smiles whan Duvy passes. Soroka: who knows. Lot depends on Freddie and his money or no money.
 
I think offensive war is probably more valuable than defensive war.

Theoretically it should not matter but I don't think it's quite there.

Depends how you frame it. But WAR is WAR. A 3 WAR player who is average defensively and plus offensively is going to be as valuable as a 3 WAR shortstop who is a defensive whiz but a light hitter.

Taking things to the extreme. An average defensively OFer in center who is an elite hitter is going to produce more WAR than an elite defensive CFer who is average offensively.

We have (had) two players that fit those roles perfectly. Ender at his best was a 3 WAR player. He's was about a league average hitter those years and among the best defensive OFs in baseball. Kiermaier is another example. 3-4 WAR is about the limit on that type of player. Acuna on the other hand has been fairly average in the times that he has played center and obviously an elite hitter. He's going to be the 5+ WAR monster at minimum.

But that is at the extremes. And also very dependent on what players are available to the team. Sure, I would love to rock Acuna in center and play 2 other good offensive players in the corner. But usually a teams payroll won't allow for that. It's usually cheaper to acquire the Ender type of player.

For the Braves Pederson and Duvall have played center out of necessity. And I imagine it's like that for a lot of teams that have done similar setups.

My overall preference? To have Pache be in there and not have him suck ass. But that didn't happen and he was horrible.
 
Minter was sent down July 19th because he couldn't throw it in the ocean for a long stretch - he was so bad at that point that they replaced him with Newk for crying out loud.

If that doesn't worry you, nothing will.

Stats are way more important than this. Look at the stats and WAR. He's been valuable.
 
Any Freddie contract probably is backloaded, so I wouldn't worry too much about it affecting 2022 payroll. It'll still be a good chunk, but probably not in the 25 million range.

And Ozuna will get suspended, undoubtedly. Question is for how long and when that decision is made. CBA probably plays a good part in that decision. Either way, AA should be expecting some relief there.
 
Minter was sent down July 19th because he couldn't throw it in the ocean for a long stretch - he was so bad at that point that they replaced him with Newk for crying out loud.

If that doesn't worry you, nothing will.

Minty had options, so we used him. I wouldn't put much into that decision. He would have stayed up if we had options.

And you're acting like Newk is a terrible reliever, which also not true.
 
Any Freddie contract probably is backloaded, so I wouldn't worry too much about it affecting 2022 payroll. It'll still be a good chunk, but probably not in the 25 million range.

And Ozuna will get suspended, undoubtedly. Question is for how long and when that decision is made. CBA probably plays a good part in that decision. Either way, AA should be expecting some relief there.

Hopefully - at least as far as Ozuna's concerned. Not sure I'd personally want to backload a long contract for a 1B already in his 30s who can't play another defensive position, but that's me. Backloading contracts for older veterans/high injury-risk players will get you in a world of trouble - the Gnats now owe Strasburg $35 million per for the next 5 years and Corbin $35 million in 2024 so they'll have $100 million tied up in 3 players in 2024 if they find a way to extend Soto. The problem with a potential Ozuna suspension likely presents more problems than it solves...

1.) How long will the MLBPA "allow" him to be suspended after he's already been down for 55 games? If he would have been retroactively put on the 60-Day IL with his original IL placement, he would have been eligible to come off on July 29th. If they hit him with a half-season suspension, the MLBPA is probably going to argue he should be eligible to be added to the roster near the end of April/early May. That means you need a "replacement" for him for that first month but you're not going to get much salary relief - certainly not enough to re-sign one of the four guys AA added at the deadline.

2.) Even if you're going to get him back in May AND you can somehow afford to bring back one of the OF/DH free-agent group, what are you going to do in LF until Acuna's back? If Pache/Heredia are your CFs and one of the Soler/Pederson/Duvall/Rosario crowd (whichever one you bring back) is covering for Ronald in RF, who are you playing in LF and who handles the DH spot? Waters has to be added to the 40-Man Roster this winter any way, do you start his clock and break camp with him in one of those spots and send him down when Ozuna is added if he struggles? Lugbauer has to be added this winter too (assuming they don't want to risk someone taking him in the Rule V draft), but does AA want to carry an emergency Catcher/DH guy who can only play 1B if Freeman sits? If you're going to do that, would you be better off promoting Langeliers and having Contreras be the DH and have him take lots of reps in LF since his clock has already started and he's more athletic than Lugbauer?
 
Hopefully - at least as far as Ozuna's concerned. Not sure I'd personally want to backload a long contract for a 1B already in his 30s who can't play another defensive position, but that's me. Backloading contracts for older veterans/high injury-risk players will get you in a world of trouble - the Gnats now owe Strasburg $35 million per for the next 5 years and Corbin $35 million in 2024 so they'll have $100 million tied up in 3 players in 2024 if they find a way to extend Soto. The problem with a potential Ozuna suspension likely presents more problems than it solves...

1.) How long will the MLBPA "allow" him to be suspended after he's already been down for 55 games? If he would have been retroactively put on the 60-Day IL with his original IL placement, he would have been eligible to come off on July 29th. If they hit him with a half-season suspension, the MLBPA is probably going to argue he should be eligible to be added to the roster near the end of April/early May. That means you need a "replacement" for him for that first month but you're not going to get much salary relief - certainly not enough to re-sign one of the four guys AA added at the deadline.

2.) Even if you're going to get him back in May AND you can somehow afford to bring back one of the OF/DH free-agent group, what are you going to do in LF until Acuna's back? If Pache/Heredia are your CFs and one of the Soler/Pederson/Duvall/Rosario crowd (whichever one you bring back) is covering for Ronald in RF, who are you playing in LF and who handles the DH spot? Waters has to be added to the 40-Man Roster this winter any way, do you start his clock and break camp with him in one of those spots and send him down when Ozuna is added if he struggles? Lugbauer has to be added this winter too (assuming they don't want to risk someone taking him in the Rule V draft), but does AA want to carry an emergency Catcher/DH guy who can only play 1B if Freeman sits? If you're going to do that, would you be better off promoting Langeliers and having Contreras be the DH and have him take lots of reps in LF since his clock has already started and he's more athletic than Lugbauer?

It will definitely be interesting how AA decides to build the roster next season. This season, I think we all saw the benefit of the intermixing parts that he added to the outfield. We were able to build a competitive club that went from 5 games under .500, to being in the NLCS. If the DH is implemented into 2022, I like our chances even more.
 
Minty had options, so we used him. I wouldn't put much into that decision. He would have stayed up if we had options.

And you're acting like Newk is a terrible reliever, which also not true.

The problem with this line of thinking is that Newk has no options left after this season, He walked 7.5 batters per 9 innings this season at the MLB level, and his control is getting worse. Lee's K-Rate is comparable, and he walked less than 1.5 batters per 9 innings. Do you really want to carry a guy who walks someone every other inning when he's at his best?

I agree that Minter's not "bad", but he's due to make significantly more than Jackson was last winter and the prevailing sentiment about him (around here) back then was that was too much to pay.
 
1. Ozuna has been paid thru this entire season.
2. Everything done regarding Ozuna has been with the blessing of the MLBPA.
3. There are reasons that Ozuna and Bauer have not returned to the active roles this year that have been conducted as part of ongoing negotiations IMO.
4. At the least I think that MLBPA will have to concede that for the good of the members money there will have to be some stipulations regarding contract cancellations.
 
The just approach for Ozuna would be giving him credit for time served once his punishment, if any, is determined.

That's my point. Even if he's given credit for "time already served" when he wasn't eligible to be on the 60-Day IL, the earliest he could play with an 80 game suspension (if that happened to be what's levied) would be around the end of April. They'll still have to have somebody cover LF and DH for the first month even if one of the guys here now (or another free-agent/trade acquisition) is brought in to cover RF for that period.
 
Imagine how fat and awful Ozuna must be now, and how awful he is likely to be next spring.

Every Braves fan should be praying he never plays again and the Braves can get out from under that deal. Oh, and remember this the next time someone wants to give a guy 4+ years.
 
As we wait for tomorrow's decisive match-up, here's a noteworthy article listing four analytical reasons (and one big, obvious narrative reason) the Braves should slightly prefer a Dodgers victory tomorrow.

Personally, in spite of said data, and in spite of the home-field bonus, I'm still rooting for the Giants—mostly for aesthetic reasons. I could really stomach a Giants win a lot more easily than I could a Dodgers win, should this unexpectedly indomitable Braves team not get over the NLCS hump.
 
As we wait for tomorrow's decisive match-up, here's a noteworthy article listing four analytical reasons (and one big, obvious narrative reason) the Braves should slightly prefer a Dodgers victory tomorrow.

Personally, in spite of said data, and in spite of the home-field bonus, I'm still rooting for the Giants—mostly for aesthetic reasons. I could really stomach a Giants win a lot more easily than I could a Dodgers win, should this unexpectedly indomitable Braves team not get over the NLCS hump.

If Dodgers win, we get HFA but most likely get Scherzer and Buehler for Games 1-2. If Giants win, Logan Webb, their best SP could only go a maximum 2 starts (games 3 and 7), and most likely go with Gausman/Wood in Games 1-2. No HFA but much easier pitching matchups.
 
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