Braves sign Ervin Santana to 1 year 14.1M deal

[Knucksie]

Just some perspective, but Braves first round draft pick history since '95. What's our success rate anyway????

2013 Jason Hursh RHP Oklahoma State 31
2012 Lucas Sims RHP Brookwood (Ga.) High School 21
2011 Sean Gilmartin LHP Florida State 28
2010 Matt Lipka SS McKinney (Texas) HS 35
2009 Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt 7
2007 Jason Heyward OF Henry County HS, McDonough, Ga. 14
2006 John Johnson OF A. Crawford Mosely HS (Panama City, Fla.) 24
2005 Joseph Devine RHP North Carolina St 27
2002 Jeff Francoeur OF Lilburn, GA 23
2001 Macay McBride LHP Screven County HS, Sylvan 24
2001 Josh Burrus SS Wheeler HS, Marietta, Ga 29
2000 Scott Thorman 3B Cambridge, Ontario 30
2000 Adam Wainwright RHP St. Simons Island, GA 29
1997 Troy Cameron SS Ft. Lauderdale, FL 29
1996 A.J. Zapp 1B Greenwood, IN 27
1995 *-Chad Hutchinson RHP Encinitas, CA 26

So, Wainwright and Heyward were the only stars drafted by the Braves in the 1st round, so far, with Minor knocking on the door, and hopefully the recent picks pan out. Some busts in that group and one chose football.

Want even more perspective? Go as far back as the early 90's for very early first round picks. Chipper was the one blue chipper. Some of the other names: Tyler Houston (they needed a catcher), Derek Lilliquist and Mike Kelly.

 

[Carp]

200 innings at a 4.50 FIP is good? Okie dokie smokie. I'm done, this just ruins my morning. I'm going back to bed, screw this.

FIP is a terrible way to judge a pitcher. Particularly a groundball pitcher like Santana.

He's been much better than you give him credit for.

 

[Tapate50]

I hate that you are so damn witty and I'm so "normal".

Me too.

 

[Millwood1Hitter]

I'm gonna say it:

THE MLB DRAFT IS A CRAPSHOOT. Not trying to sound like the Braves brass, but it is moreso than any other draft in any other professional sports. You are just as likely to find a star in the middle and late rounds as in the early rounds. Our success rate in the later rounds prove this, and that list of 1st rounders brings back a lot of nostaglia thinking about some of the hype that those guys got and never panned out to diddly poo.

 

[50PoundHead]

I just wish Medlen was 100%. I bet this deal costs us the chance to sign Heyward long-term.

How? Santana is probably here for a year.

I don't want go histrionic, I don't think we are a playoff team without making this deal. We maybe aren't with this deal, but with the projected loss of Medlen, we were in trouble.

David Hale? I hope it has come together for him, but this is a guy whose minor league stats are nothing to write home about. Could be a late-bloomer, but I wouldn't bet the house on the guy at this point.

We can all choose our stats K/BB, HR%, WHIP, whatever. Santana is a proven commodity. He's not a perfect pitcher. He would have been signed in December if he was. But again, look at the innings numbers. The guy can eat them.

 

[50PoundHead]

Wow. What a morning.

For anyone who doesn't like this move, consider the following.

Give or take a few on either side, MLB has about 30 pitchers who make it to 200 innings pitched every year. It's really hard to do in this era of baseball. Part of the reason our pitching did so well last year was because we had Mike Minor achieve that feat, and had 2 others (Medlen, Teheran) that came fairly close to it. Obviously Medlen can't do that now, and Minor is questionable. By getting Santana, we at least stand a halfway decent chance of getting at least 400ish quality innings out of the rotation, or maybe even more if Minor comes back strong. It's not outlandish to think that perhaps we might have 3 pitchers flirt with 200 innings again. For a contending team, you cannot expect to go to war with only one or two guys that have proven that they can go the whole season, and win. I really like what I've seen out of Wood, but he's apparently on a limit. And we may have another Beachy that comes out of nowhere. But you can't assume that will happen. At some point, you owe it to your team to solve a problem with a proven commodity, and Santana was the closest to that we were going to get at this point.

As for the WHIP argument, consider a basic example: Two pitchers pitch in seperate games. One gives up a home run, two singles, and gets out of the inning. Another gives up two singles, then a home run. Vastly different outcomes, yet WHIP views their performances to be the same value. It's a fun at a glance stat, but just that.



As for the fake quote:

Gee talk about hypothetical small sample size. All statistics have to be placed in context. I've always viewed WHIP as pretty good shorthand. There are going to be a few guys who out-perform or under-perform their WHIP, but it's not a bad predictor when it comes to placing pitchers in performance strata.

 

[MadduxFanII]

The Twins have got to be experiencing a bit of a self-esteem crisis at the moment.

"Hmm. You want to offer me three years and $27 million? No thanks. I'll take less security and less guaranteed money from the Braves."

 

[yeezus]

The Twins have got to be experiencing a bit of a self-esteem crisis at the moment.

"Hmm. You want to offer me three years and $27 million? No thanks. I'll take less security and less guaranteed money from the Braves."

I look at it as, he knows he very likely can get more than that the next two years.

 

[50PoundHead]

The Twins have got to be experiencing a bit of a self-esteem crisis at the moment.

"Hmm. You want to offer me three years and $27 million? No thanks. I'll take less security and less guaranteed money from the Braves."

Twins are optimistic (at least the team is, but it is only March), but I don't see that much improvement. For the Twins to compete, Gibson will have to take a big step forward and Hughes will have to show he's better than he's been. Speaking of Hughes, I can only imagine Santana's agent saying, "Oh, so you think Ervin is a whole million dollars a year better than Phil Hughes? Okay. See ya."

 

[jpx7]

I look at it as, he knows he very likely can get more than that the next two years.

Exactly. As pointed out on MLBTR and elsewhere: Santanta signed for the same amount as this year's qualifying-offer, and if he pitches well enough in 2014 to merit the Braves extending him a qualifying-offer, he could always accept it and earn over two seasons (~$29 million) about what the Twins were offering him over three ($30-33 million).

 

[thethe]

I'd be very happy if he accepted the QO next year. That meant that he pitched really well in 2014.

 

[gilesfan]

The Twins have got to be experiencing a bit of a self-esteem crisis at the moment.

"Hmm. You want to offer me three years and $27 million? No thanks. I'll take less security and less guaranteed money from the Braves."

If he pitches like he did from 09-12, hes gonna be kicking himself.

 

[Millwood1Hitter]

I think the moral of the story is that it pays to be patient the way free agency has shook out these last 2 years. Granted, the Braves weren't exactly patient and were forced to essentially scoop in and be in on and sign Santana this late because of a unforseen injury to one of its top pitchers, but we were able to sign the best starting pitcher that was on the market at the beginning of the FA period.

Similiar thing happened last year as well, with Bourn, we would have been better off waiting instead of signing BJ to that albatross of a contract and be able to sign a better player and a better fit for the roster at considerably less money and years than BJ.

But how do you know? Its nice to get deals done, and areas shored up, so you know what you have and don't have, where funds are allocated so you can move forward and try to improve the club at other areas that need addressed.

 

[Knucksie]

I'm gonna say it:

THE MLB DRAFT IS A CRAPSHOOT. Not trying to sound like the Braves brass, but it is moreso than any other draft in any other professional sports. You are just as likely to find a star in the middle and late rounds as in the early rounds. Our success rate in the later rounds prove this, and that list of 1st rounders brings back a lot of nostaglia thinking about some of the hype that those guys got and never panned out to diddly poo.

We mustn't lose sight of the fact that there are a couple of posters here, who think that they know better about prospects than anybody else. They're not shy about informing us how their major league career will project out. Amazing, considering the professionals trying to sort through reports, attending games, monitoring data. Then a 20 year old fantasy league team owner, armed with a Samsung Galaxy, is the bigger expert.

 

[Knucksie]

I'd be very happy if he accepted the QO next year. That meant that he pitched really well in 2014.

If he pitches very well, in a contract year, he's going to try free agency again. That doesn't mean that there won't be mutual interest in a QO and new contract. Way too early to even think about it though.

 

[AUTiger7222]

Doesn't necessarily mean it will be DURING the 2014 season.

Mark my take down as the first voter that thinks we WON'T be outbid for David Price IF we don't trade for him during the season (have thought that since the first mention of the new ballpark and moreso since the money started flowing for extensions).

Price has just made entirely too much sense as the answer to the question of "Will we ever actually go outside of the organization to get an 'Ace'?" for entirely too long.

Santana for one year only strengthens that argument. We now KNOW (beyond question) that Liberty will allow Wren & Company to do what it takes to increase the value of this asset. Most of the extensions fit within what was the original budget to begin with. $28 million in new revenues from the new national TV deal and you want $14 million to fill a NEED? Took an hour to get the go-ahead from McGuirk.

I can't see the Braves outbidding the Dodgers or Yankees or someone else for David Price. $200M? Just not happening.

 

[NYCBrave]

I'd be very happy if he accepted the QO next year. That meant that he pitched really well in 2014.

Actually I would think the opposite. If he pitched well this year, he'd be in line for a multi-year deal, so why would he accept the QO?

 

[benchguy]

He saying that because if he didn't take the offer, the Braves would get a high draft pick

Actually I would think the opposite. If he pitched well this year, he'd be in line for a multi-year deal, so why would he accept the QO?

 

[thewupk]

If he pitches like he did from 09-12, hes gonna be kicking himself.

I doubt it. He needs 13 million over two years to cover what the Twins offered him. He would have to get hurt and be one of the worst starters in the league to not get that 13 over 2.

 

[Jay212033]

I'm gonna say it:

THE MLB DRAFT IS A CRAPSHOOT. Not trying to sound like the Braves brass, but it is moreso than any other draft in any other professional sports. You are just as likely to find a star in the middle and late rounds as in the early rounds. Our success rate in the later rounds prove this, and that list of 1st rounders brings back a lot of nostaglia thinking about some of the hype that those guys got and never panned out to diddly poo.

I'd rather have 2 chances to hit the lottery as oppose to one.