Trade deadline thread

Elder is definitely valuable to any team wanting to trade a rental type player. He has proven he can be servicable and at time quite good at the MLB level. That for 5 years is worth every penny of a rental or two. I don't see Shuster or Grissom giving any tingly feeling however. So if we are trying to get Hader/Snell and we lead with Elder, then we are probably going to have to entice with one or two of our lottery prospects lower in minors.

That said, I just don't see AA wanting to give away control of a useful piece that can help now for one shot this year. maybe I am wrong, but I just don't see it.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Depends on how they look at it of course. But if the plan is to remain in contention next season and beyond, getting a back end rotation piece is not a bad get over prospects that may or may not contribute.

By adding Elder, they get a guy who has had success at the big league level in a hitter friendly park. Going to Petco Park where it is more neutral or even pitcher friendly at times, could be encouraging. Grissom is a guy that can hit, but is questionable on defense for sure. But he is piece that can help a team or be a trade chip. Shuster is essentially the throw in piece here.
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I'm sure they would have interest in Elder. He's a solid 3-4 type of pitcher. That's not really the issue.

The issue is more of him being the primary centerpiece in a deal for Snell, Hader, and Soto. Those guys alone over this year (and next year for Soto) can likely be expected to provide over 10 WAR. Elder optimistically might be expected to provide 10-15 WAR over his 5 remaining control, and comes with the normal risk involved with pitchers. Also, 10 WAR over 5 years is not nearly as valuable as 10 over 2 years.

Again, even for Soto alone, the package seems a bit light. A year ago, they essentially gave up 3 60 FV prospects in Gore, Abrams, and Woods, 2 other 45 FV prospects. I know he has a year less control now, but I would still expect him to bring in a prospect package close to 100 million in FV.
 
Carp said:
I'm sure they would have interest in Elder. He's a solid 3-4 type of pitcher. That's not really the issue.

The issue is more of him being the primary centerpiece in a deal for Snell, Hader, and Soto. Those guys alone over this year (and next year for Soto) can likely be expected to provide over 10 WAR. Elder optimistically might be expected to provide 10-15 WAR over his 5 remaining control, and comes with the normal risk involved with pitchers. Also, 10 WAR over 5 years is not nearly as valuable as 10 over 2 years.

Again, even for Soto alone, the package seems a bit light. A year ago, they essentially gave up 3 60 FV prospects in Gore, Abrams, and Woods, 2 other 45 FV prospects. I know he has a year less control now, but I would still expect him to bring in a prospect package close to 100 million in FV.
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I would rather leave Soto out of the deal personally. get Hader/Snell and we are cooking. Just need to show Twit that it is ok to experiment with lineup construction. Give guys days off, play Pilar or whoever more than once a month.. Move Rasorryio out of the middle of the lineup...DH our catchers every so often to get Ozuna going again. Stop with the Sharpie lineup cards.
 
Carp said:
I'm sure they would have interest in Elder. He's a solid 3-4 type of pitcher. That's not really the issue.

The issue is more of him being the primary centerpiece in a deal for Snell, Hader, and Soto. Those guys alone over this year (and next year for Soto) can likely be expected to provide over 10 WAR. Elder optimistically might be expected to provide 10-15 WAR over his 5 remaining control, and comes with the normal risk involved with pitchers. Also, 10 WAR over 5 years is not nearly as valuable as 10 over 2 years.

Again, even for Soto alone, the package seems a bit light. A year ago, they essentially gave up 3 60 FV prospects in Gore, Abrams, and Woods, 2 other 45 FV prospects. I know he has a year less control now, but I would still expect him to bring in a prospect package close to 100 million in FV.
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I doubt Soto actually gets moved. But Elder being the centerpiece for Snell/Hader makes sense. Both players are FA after this season, so it would literally be for a rental. They address a long term position in the rotation and give up 2 guys they could possibly re-sign this offseason.

That being said, I revert back to a comment I made a few weeks ago....AA always surprises us at the deadline by picking up guys we had no idea were available or we were remotely interested in. He typically shys away from the guys that are mentioned in the media. As fans, we get upset seeing all of the big names come off the board, and then are happy within an hour or so after the deadline, once the deals he finalized are all announced.

If i'm not mistaken Soler, Iglesias, and Rodriguez were all announced after the deadline passed.
 
Moving on, now that the Mets are clearly selling, they become an intriguing trade candidate.


As unlikely as it is, I do believe Verlander or Scherzer would be great to add to our playoff rotation. I know Scherzer has had some struggles with the long ball, but his K rate and BB rate are still elite. On the eye test, he still seems like he has dominant stuff. However, I'm not sure how we make that money work this year or next year (and 2025 potentially for JV). Even if you figure we let Charlie retire, that's a ton of money to bank on a 40 year old pitcher. If they were FAs at the end of the year, I would be all for it. As it is, I doubt this happens, but adding one of these guys would be huge IMO.

The best match for us, imo, is Jose Quintana. He continues to remain a solid MOR starter and his 2024 salary is doable at 14 million. Obviously health is a concern given that he is just now making his first few starts of the year, but for that same reason his acquisition cost should be fairly cheap.

They also have several BP options that make sense for us. Adam Ottovino and Brooks Raley being the best in this category.

We've talked about Pham before. He's a good fit on paper, but I don't think the attitude fits in the clubhouse. There is a reason he has bounced around the league. The incident between him and Joc Pederson can't be ignored. So I don't think he's a real option. The only other hitter of interest is Mark Canha, and I will pass on him.
 
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NL Central targets:

From the Cubbies, Cody Bellinger and/or Marcus Stroman is the dream. I would be extremely pleased with either one. Mike Tauchman (who I've never heard of) is also having a solid year and has played every OF position.

From the Cards, Jordan Montgomery is the top target. But Steven Matz is intriguing as well as someone who can start or come out of the BP. Among their hitters rumored to be available, Tommy Edman probably makes the most sense given his position flexibility. His rate stats also suggest he's been a good bit unlucky so far.

Pirates don't have much that they are reportedly willing to offer up. Keller apparently isn't available and Reynolds just signed a big contract. Cutch makes a lot of sense for us, but he only gets traded if he wants to be traded. Bednar is also great, but is likely to be pretty expensive in prospect costs.
 
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Bellinger might be the most overrated player on the trade block. xWOBA of .325. Way lower than his WOBA of .382.

His EV is way down this year, he's barreling a career low percentage of balls, and his hard hit % is at a career low as well. He'd be a defensive boost in LF and he doesn't K very much but that's about all you can say about him. His numbers appear to be pretty inflated. It's why I don't expect AA to go after him. The data doesn't like him.
 
Is it possible that fried could be part of a trade? Seems highly unlikely, but that could also explain him not starting
 
striker42 said:
Bellinger might be the most overrated player on the trade block. xWOBA of .325. Way lower than his WOBA of .382.

His EV is way down this year, he's barreling a career low percentage of balls, and his hard hit % is at a career low as well. He'd be a defensive boost in LF and he doesn't K very much but that's about all you can say about him. His numbers appear to be pretty inflated. It's why I don't expect AA to go after him. The data doesn't like him.
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Bellinger over performing and being a rental is why he likely wouldn't cost much.

Rosario also has some reverse splits going on this year where he's been awful agaisnt righties. Bellinger would be a decent upgrade over him.
 
thewupk said:
Bellinger over performing and being a rental is why he likely wouldn't cost much.

Rosario also has some reverse splits going on this year where he's been awful agaisnt righties. Bellinger would be a decent upgrade over him.
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Depends on if there's a dumb team out there willing to buy into his overperformance.

He would be a decent upgrade over Rosario but a reliable golden retriever would be a decent upgrade over Rosario.
 
I know relievers are volatile, but I'm really interested to see where AA lands. With Minter, Lee, Chavez and Anderson all expected back this season, I don't know that Alex is putting as many resources into the BP as we'd like. Johnson was a decent pick-up, and I'm sure he'll make another but I doubt he overpays. I do think he's going to target a legit starter... given the price goes down even a tad.

On another note, good for the Marlins getting Robertson. I love it for their fans.
 
striker42 said:
Depends on if there's a dumb team out there willing to buy into his overperformance.

He would be a decent upgrade over Rosario but a reliable golden retriever would be a decent upgrade over Rosario.
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Not sure why you are expecting for a possible upgrade at the deadline. Our farm is thin. Any bat is going to be more like Bellinger and not Soto.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I know relievers are volatile, but I'm really interested to see where AA lands. With Minter, Lee, Chavez and Anderson all expected back this season, I don't know that Alex is putting as many resources into the BP as we'd like. Johnson was a decent pick-up, and I'm sure he'll make another but I doubt he overpays. I do think he's going to target a legit starter... given the price goes down even a tad.

On another note, good for the Marlins getting Robertson. I love it for their fans.
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Marlins now looking for a SP. They already have a good rotation, seems like they could really use a bat.
 
thewupk said:
Not sure why you are expecting for a possible upgrade at the deadline. Our farm is thin. Any bat is going to be more like Bellinger and not Soto.
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A lot of prospect resources went into building the core and people can (and do) argue about that, but we just don't have the prospect capital to make a huge deadline upgrade as a result. The last few drafts have produced some big-time contributors, but there's not that much depth and some of our higher picks are either too far away and/or not performing particularly well to merit interest. Conversations with trade partners probably start with Smith-Shawver and given long-term rotation questions, my guess is Anthopoulos would have to be entirely bowled over to include him in any deal.
 
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