Official Around Baseball 2023 Thread

Heyward said:
Buehler just threw his first game back last week. I think he'd probably be fine by the playoffs. Kershaw, Lynn, Miller, Buehler or Pepiot/Sheehan who held us to 1 run isnt the worst rotation to roll out.
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Buehler is essentially in Spring Training at this point. For reference, Wright has already made a couple rehab starts and is expected to make 2-3 more rehab starts. His timetable for return looks like it will be 9/20 at the absolute earliest, but more likely to be 9/26, giving him 2 starts before the playoffs start. And he isn't coming back from a major surgery like Buehler.
 
Carp said:
Dodgers might as well be done too. Their post-season rotation looks like Kershaw (who seems to always be battling injuries), Miller, Lynn, and a BP game. I know Walker Buehler just made his first rehab appearance, but I really question whether he will be back in time for the post-season and how effective he will be. Not to mention, the Dodgers will likely handle his situation carefully given he is the future of their rotation.
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Everyone who makes it has a punchers chance but the Dodgers championship window is closing rapidly. They havent been able to replace their last batch of good cheap players that made them formidable. Now those players are making closer to market value, have left already, and/or about to hit free agency. Their only real option now is to spend a **** ton of money in free agency and that is a losing strategy even with their gargantuan payroll. They have been lucky to hit with Freeman and Betts but its not nearly as great for them paying them what they are compared to us paying Acuna under 20 million a year. I think they are still contenders next year but after that I see reality hitting them pretty hard. Its too bad they didnt get to sign Ohtani for 60 million a year before he blew out his arm. I am not the expert I once was on prospects but from a quick glance their farm system sucks. We got 20 year olds breaking into the majors and they got 24/25 year olds still trying to hit minor league pitching.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Everyone who makes it has a punchers chance but the Dodgers championship window is closing rapidly. They havent been able to replace their last batch of good cheap players that made them formidable. Now those players are making closer to market value, have left already, and/or about to hit free agency. Their only real option now is to spend a **** ton of money in free agency and that is a losing strategy even with their gargantuan payroll. They have been lucky to hit with Freeman and Betts but its not nearly as great for them paying them what they are compared to us paying Acuna under 20 million a year. I think they are still contenders next year but after that I see reality hitting them pretty hard. Its too bad they didnt get to sign Ohtani for 60 million a year before he blew out his arm. I am not the expert I once was on prospects but from a quick glance their farm system sucks. We got 20 year olds breaking into the majors and they got 24/25 year olds still trying to hit minor league pitching.
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They're vaunted farm system hasn't produced nearly as many hits lately either. Miller seems legit. Outman is solid, but he's gotten super lucky so far with a BABIP of .363. Normalized BABIP probably puts him closer to a 1.5-2 WAR player. But many of their big time prospects the last 2-3 years (Vargas, Lux, Busch) haven't panned out so far.
 
Carp said:
They're vaunted farm system hasn't produced nearly as many hits lately either. Miller seems legit. Outman is solid, but he's gotten super lucky so far with a BABIP of .363. Normalized BABIP probably puts him closer to a 1.5-2 WAR player. But many of their big time prospects the last 2-3 years (Vargas, Lux, Busch) haven't panned out so far.
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I agree for the most part but Lux will be a good player and produce a good amount of war by the time he declines imo
 
cajunrevenge said:
Everyone who makes it has a punchers chance but the Dodgers championship window is closing rapidly. They havent been able to replace their last batch of good cheap players that made them formidable. Now those players are making closer to market value, have left already, and/or about to hit free agency. Their only real option now is to spend a **** ton of money in free agency and that is a losing strategy even with their gargantuan payroll. They have been lucky to hit with Freeman and Betts but it’s not nearly as great for them paying them what they are compared to us paying Acuna under 20 million a year. I think they are still contenders next year but after that I see reality hitting them pretty hard. It’s too bad they didnt get to sign Ohtani for 60 million a year before he blew out his arm. I am not the expert I once was on prospects but from a quick glance their farm system sucks. We got 20 year olds breaking into the majors and they got 24/25 year olds still trying to hit minor league pitching.
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Their window is never closing. You seem to forget how they started this run. Way before they brought up the likes of Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, Smith and the like, they bought a bunch of superstars off the Red Sox and other teams. If the farm isn’t producing, they’ll just go back to that strategy.
 
Their window to contend for a playoff spot sure. They will be in contention for a playoff spot simply because of their payroll and actually knowing how to use it. Hitting on those young prospects took the team from playoff contender to perennial championship contender. They can keep trying to buy players but they are bound to get stuck with their share of Melvins in the process. They were probably Ohtani's elbow hanging on for another 6 weeks away from giving him some kind of insane 10 year 500 million contract. They have a couple good young players but not much coming soon. What happens if Mookie and Freeman just have okay years instead of MVP years. They are a bubble team ready to pop any year now.
 
Heyward said:
Buehler just threw his first game back last week. I think he'd probably be fine by the playoffs. Kershaw, Lynn, Miller, Buehler or Pepiot/Sheehan who held us to 1 run isnt the worst rotation to roll out.
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Kinda strange you just assume Buehler will be ready to go at 100% full strength and effectiveness after being shut down for a long time. I think is very rare that pitchers come back at 100% after cases like this. I’m certainly not high on Wright being a big factor and he’s much further along.
 
I would love to be in a negotiation with a Borass client. He would bring his binder of BS I would break out a bigger binder full of all his clients that massively underperformed. When he tells me this client is a special generational talent I would point out that if he truly believed that he would make more money off shorter contracts with higher annual value. And thats the part where I imagine he walks out.
 
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