REAL FOOTBALL Thread

NFL scouts take college stats with a massive grain of salt.

PFF big board right now has QBs as
1. WIlliams
2. Maye
3. Nix
4. Daniels
5. Penix
6. Sanders
7. Beck
8. McCarthy
9. Ewers
10. Leonard

I think that's pretty close to solid.

CBS has

1. Maye
2. Williams
3. Sanders
4. McCarthy
5. Penix
6. Nix
7. Ewers

Etc.

I think reality is there's a clear 1/2. After that there's some debate depending on what you value.

Personally to me my top 5 is

1. Williams
2. Maye
3. Nix
4. Sanders
5. Daniels
 
zitothebrave said:
NFL scouts take college stats with a massive grain of salt.

PFF big board right now has QBs as
1. WIlliams
2. Maye
3. Nix
4. Daniels
5. Penix
6. Sanders
7. Beck
8. McCarthy
9. Ewers
10. Leonard

I think that's pretty close to solid.

CBS has

1. Maye
2. Williams
3. Sanders
4. McCarthy
5. Penix
6. Nix
7. Ewers

Etc.

I think reality is there's a clear 1/2. After that there's some debate depending on what you value.

Personally to me my top 5 is

1. Williams
2. Maye
3. Nix
4. Sanders
5. Daniels
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Lol... obviously they take stats with a grain of salt... I know how it works, thanks. But Beck has prototypical size, a huge arm, fantastic accuracy, has become an elite processor, and his teammates love him as a leader. He's the definition of a guy with all the traits of an NFL QB and he has the stats. He has the numbers and he passes the eye test. CBS is a joke. They didn't even add Beck anywhere in their rankings... dumb. Looks like it is a start of the season list still since Rattler is even ranked. The PFF rankings you listed are over a month old. Beck has also risen to 5th in the Heisman odds. He's easily a better NFL prospect than Nix and Sanders and it's close on Maye. I also think Williams is going to be a huge bust... he's as soft as Charmin.
 
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EVen if that board is a month old (don't think it is, they tweeted about it on the 15th so I assume they updated before then?) you think things will change that much?

I'm not gonna say what Beck can or can't be.

Personally I think it's likely he and Sanders stay in another year and fight for the top QB next year. But who knows. It's hard to lose that NFL money
 
zitothebrave said:
EVen if that board is a month old (don't think it is, they tweeted about it on the 15th so I assume they updated before then?) you think things will change that much?

I'm not gonna say what Beck can or can't be.

Personally I think it's likely he and Sanders stay in another year and fight for the top QB next year. But who knows. It's hard to lose that NFL money
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Yes I do considering in that last month he played his best football against 2 top 15 teams and another ranked team. Hard to tell, but the list I saw that had Beck at 7 was first published around this time in October. He may not end up being drafted top QB3 in 2024... but there aren't 3 other QBs I'd rather have from a raw ability/intangible combo. Anyways, if he stays he will easily be a favorite to go as QB1 in 2025.
 
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zbhargrove said:
Beck: 3,320 yards, 72.9%, 9.5 Avg, 21 TDs, 5 INTs - 3 rushing TDs 76.9 EPA
McCarthy: 2,335 yards, 73.8%, 9.9 Avg, 18 TDs, 4 INTs - 4 rushing TDs 57.4 EPA
Ewers: 2513 yards, 70.3%, 9.0 Avg, 16 TDs, 4 INTs - 5 rushing TDs 49.0 EPA
Leonard (LOL): 1102 yards, 57.6%, 6.7 Avg, 3 TDs, 3 INs - 4 rushing TDs Irrelevantly low EPA
Maye: 3,354 yards, 8.7 Avg, 22 TDs, 7 INTs - 8 rushing TDs 73.0 EPA

Lol.. they aren't close except for McCarthy and Maye. But McCarthy is struggling down the stretch and Beck is just getting better and better. Maye is still banking a bit on potential rather than raw results. Didn't really take the step forward everyone was hoping for.
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College stats aren't that relevant anymore when it comes to NFL draft evaluation. That's why Richardson went top 5 last year. And Lance a couple years before him. And Allen before that. It's why Levis was considered a 1st rounder by many analysts and still went pick 33.

Look the draft boards guy. Beck anywhere on any top 5 list I can find. Whether you or I think he's better than those guys is irrelevant. He isn't getting that consideration. Beck is not the current mold that most NFL teams look for, which is super athletic, do it all types. And the "proto-typical NFL QB" isn't what it used to be. The current NFL QB mold is closer to guys like Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels than it is Carson Beck. It's why Riley Leonard gets draft buzz despite missing half the season and his numbers being underwhelming (but I imagine he returns given the injury).
 
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zbhargrove said:
Yes I do considering in that last month he played his best football against 2 top 15 teams and another ranked team. Hard to tell, but the list I saw that had Beck at 7 was first published around this time in October. He may not end up being drafted top QB3 in 2024... but there aren't 3 other QBs I'd rather have from a raw ability/intangible combo. Anyways, if he stays he will easily be a favorite to go as QB1 in 2025.
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Dude, those "ranked teams" had some very mediocre to bad defenses. UF just put up 30 on Mizzu despite losing Mertz for most of the 2nd half. OM defense is awful. Vols defense isn't very good either, especially since losing Hadden.
 
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https://theathletic.com/5075179/2023/11/20/nfl-draft-2024-qbs-carson-beck-jj-mccarthy/

It's not just Georgia homers that are seeing Beck's ascent. He's at least put his name in the conversation for the third QB off the board.

Beck checks a lot of boxes for the NFL. He's got great size, a huge arm, he plays in a pro style system, he's accurate (5th in off target %), and he's a quick processor who gets rid of the ball quickly. The physical attributes alone would have him on NFL teams radars.

I think he should go back for another year. With Williams and Maye no longer taking up the spotlight, Beck would slide into that top QB prospect slot. And you generally want the buzz if you're a QB.
 
Carp said:
Dude, those "ranked teams" had some very mediocre to bad defenses. UF just put up 30 on Mizzu despite losing Mertz for most of the 2nd half. OM defense is awful. Vols defense isn't very good either, especially since losing Hadden.
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Im just saying. He’s been flying up draft boards and it’s more than speculation. He has all the talent and the eye test… but i addressed this already. Lol at discounting his fantastic play against 3 ranked teams in a row… one who is now top 10.

From the Athletic this morning:

https://theathletic.com/5075179/2023/11/20/nfl-draft-2024-qbs-carson-beck-jj-mccarthy/?source=user_shared_article 2024 NFL Draft QB Tracker: Carson Beck continues his surge; J.J. McCarthy struggles

“From an NFL Draft standpoint, there are two discussions about Beck: Could he be QB3 for the 2024 draft or is he an early favorite to be QB1 for 2025? Georgia and its name, image and likeness operation certainly will make any decision Beck has after the season about turning pro a difficult one. But rest assured, if he seeks NFL feedback, he’s going to get really good answers.

The longer the season has gone on, the better Beck has played. He’s been undeniably good and one of the most consistent players in America this season. Georgia’s three-peat odds look much better because of him.”
 
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zbhargrove said:
Im just saying. He’s been flying up draft boards and it’s more than speculation. He has all the talent and the eye test… but i addressed this already. Lol at discounting his fantastic play against 3 ranked teams in a row… one who is now top 10.

From the Athletic this morning:

https://theathletic.com/5075179/2023/11/20/nfl-draft-2024-qbs-carson-beck-jj-mccarthy/?source=user_shared_article 2024 NFL Draft QB Tracker: Carson Beck continues his surge; J.J. McCarthy struggles

“From an NFL Draft standpoint, there are two discussions about Beck: Could he be QB3 for the 2024 draft or is he an early favorite to be QB1 for 2025? Georgia and its name, image and likeness operation certainly will make any decision Beck has after the season about turning pro a difficult one. But rest assured, if he seeks NFL feedback, he’s going to get really good answers.

The longer the season has gone on, the better Beck has played. He’s been undeniably good and one of the most consistent players in America this season. Georgia’s three-peat odds look much better because of him.”
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No one is saying he isn't a good QB. But he's not currently among the top 5 NFL prospects of 2024. And it's a truly loaded class, so that isn't a big knock.

And again, those teams are ranked because of their offenses, not their defenses. That would be like claiming Milroe is a great QB because he beat LSU and Daniels, without realizing that LSU has the 103rd ranked defense in the country this year. Context matters.
 
Carp said:
No one is saying he isn't a good QB. But he's not currently among the top 5 NFL prospects of 2024. And it's a truly loaded class, so that isn't a big knock.

And again, those teams are ranked because of their offenses, not their defenses. That would be like claiming Milroe is a great QB because he beat LSU and Daniels, without realizing that LSU has the 103rd ranked defense in the country this year. Context matters.
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I mean literal national analysts are starting to say he could be as high as QB3 in 2024 but keep on arguing just to argue. It’s pretty apparent you haven’t really watched him.

Missou has a very solid defense. They slept walked through the Florida game. Ole Miss D sucks… UT is solid. All that said it’s not like the other elite QB prospects have bigger wins/stats vs better defenses.
 
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zbhargrove said:
I mean literal national analysts are starting to say he could be as high as QB3 in 2024 but keep on arguing just to argue. It’s pretty apparent you haven’t really watched him.

Missou has a very solid defense. They slept walked through the Florida game. Ole Miss D sucks… UT is solid. All that said it’s not like the other elite QB prospects have bigger wins/stats vs better defenses.
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Again, you are using stats and ranked wins as criteria that NFL teams care about when they really aren't. I bet you also thought Stetson Bennett would go ahead of Anthony Richardson and Will Levis last year didn't you?

You have pointed to 1 article behind a paid subscription that I don't care enough to pay for.

So far, I've read 6 rankings and about as many mock drafts from "literal national analysts" (inlcuding multiple from the Athletic) and only 1 of them have Beck as a top 5 QB (from ESPNs, Jordan Reid, at No. 5 behind Sanders and McCarthy who you say he is soo much better than LOL). PFN's recent Big Board doesn't even have Beck in their top 300.
 
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Carp said:
Again, you are using stats and ranked wins as criteria that NFL teams care about when they really aren't. I bet you also thought Stetson Bennett would go ahead of Anthony Richardson and Will Levis last year didn't you?

You have pointed to 1 article behind a paid subscription that I don't care enough to pay for.

So far, I've read 6 rankings and about as many mock drafts from "literal national analysts" (inlcuding multiple from the Athletic) and only 1 of them have Beck as a top 5 QB (from ESPNs, Jordan Reid, at No. 5 behind Sanders and McCarthy who you say he is soo much better than LOL). PFN's recent Big Board doesn't even have Beck in their top 300.
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Lol no I never thought Stetson would go ahead of Richardson and Levis because he didn’t have the NFL skill set the other guys did. Beck does. And yes, Beck is better than Sanders and JJ… no question. All you have to do is use use your eyeballs and watch them.

Also those “ranking” articles haven’t caught up yet. It’s literally happening real time. We may never know because I’m doubtful he declares. But he’s easily a first rounder at the very least if he did. His upward momentum is similar to Mac Jones his draft year except Beck has much more natural ability.
 
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zbhargrove said:
Lol no I never thought Stetson would go ahead of Richardson and Levis because he didn’t have the NFL skill set the other guys did. Beck does. And yes, Beck is better than Sanders and JJ… no question. All you have to do is use use your eyeballs and watch them.

Also those “ranking” articles haven’t caught up yet. It’s literally happening real time. We may never know because I’m doubtful he declares. But he’s easily a first rounder at the very least if he did. His upward momentum is similar to Mac Jones his draft year except Beck has much more natural ability.
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Those articles were literally posted within the last 20 days. Nothing Beck has done would have swayed anyone's opinion in that time frame.
 
Carp said:
Those articles were literally posted within the last 20 days. Nothing Beck has done would have swayed anyone's opinion in that time frame.
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A QB who was never a starter before this year playing his best football against his best competition in the past 20 days... yes, it sways opinions dude. lol. Speaking of which he has now moved up to number 6 on the PFF board and is in their top 50 prospects on the big board... just keeps moving up week after week.

Beck's average time to release the ball is 2.2 seconds. That's insane. Add that to a huge arm, elite processing skills, and pinpoint accuracy. The dude is a flat out stud.

One reason he may not come back if he gets a first round grade is that he will be losing 4 of his 5 O-linemen and then also Bowers of course. Not to mention losing his best 2 RBs. Family insiders are saying he's leaning towards the draft. Guess it depends on his grade he gets back and if UGA can give him enough NIL to stick around.
 
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NFC South is sucha dumpster fire.

Falcons now lead the division at 5-6. Technically the panthers despite being 1-10 are out of the playoff picture. They could win out and at 7-10, with some bad results for the teams in front of them they could win the division.

So bad.
 
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