2016 Draft Position

KB21 said:
What you are missing out on is a Clayton Kershaw, a Zach Grienke, and a Madison Bumgarner who were taken just outside of the top 5 where teams took limited college arms instead of them. In 2006, Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow, and Andrew Miller were taken before Clayton Kershaw. In 2007, Daniel Moskos and Ross Detwiller were taken over Jarrod Parker and Madison Bumgarner. Go look at the college pitchers that were taken over Adam Wainwright in 2000.

I understand the point that there are exceptions with college players, but if you give me the choice between David Price and Madison Bumgarner, I'm taking Bumgarner every day. Bumgarner and Kershaw are the top two pitchers in all of baseball right now, IMO. Who would you rather have from the 2002 draft? Bryan Bullington, who went #1 to Pittsburgh out of Ball State, or Zack Greinke who went 7th to Kansas City out of Apopka HS?

In 2009, I'll give you Strausberg as an exception. However, would you rather have Mike Minor or Zach Wheeler? Mike Leake or Shelby Miller?
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How am I missing anything? I'm not talking about picks outside the top 5. I've explained over and over that I agree with you once you start dropping even into the bottom of the top 10. Once again: I'm. talking. about. the. first. 2. to. 3. picks.

We won't be picking outside the top 5, so why would that matter?

There is a larger group of high-ceiling HS players than high-ceiling college players, no question. I've never argued that. But the top college players are more likely to become studs than the top HS guys, not less. They have the same ceiling but the college players are closer to reaching theirs and more proven.

If you'd rather take Bumgarner than Price, go ahead. You'll end up on the worse end of that most of the time. If you downgrade a guy like Price simply because he played in college, you're insane.

You can always pick guys here and there. I could find you a million HS pitchers who busted; why would that matter?

The truly elite college players are both more likely to become studs and less likely to bust than the top HS players in most drafts.

I've already specifically told you I'm not talking about a guy like Mike Minor. I don't know why you're purposely ignoring what I'm saying. I'm talking about the Prices, Strasburgs, Priors, Bryants, Brauns, etc.
 
smootness said:
How am I missing anything? I'm not talking about picks outside the top 5. I've explained over and over that I agree with you once you start dropping even into the bottom of the top 10. Once again: I'm. talking. about. the. first. 2. to. 3. picks.

We won't be picking outside the top 5, so why would that matter?

There is a larger group of high-ceiling HS players than high-ceiling college players, no question. I've never argued that. But the top college players are more likely to become studs than the top HS guys, not less. They have the same ceiling but the college players are closer to reaching theirs and more proven.

If you'd rather take Bumgarner than Price, go ahead. You'll end up on the worse end of that most of the time. If you downgrade a guy like Price simply because he played in college, you're insane.

You can always pick guys here and there. I could find you a million HS pitchers who busted; why would that matter?

The truly elite college players are both more likely to become studs and less likely to bust than the top HS players in most drafts.

I've already specifically told you I'm not talking about a guy like Mike Minor. I don't know why you're purposely ignoring what I'm saying. I'm talking about the Prices, Strasburgs, Priors, Bryants, Brauns, etc.
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I'm saying that those kinds of players in college ball are few and far between. Will Clark and Rafael Palmeiro types don't play college ball today.

And who goes just outside of the top 5 is perfectly relevant to the discussion, because in hindsight, Bumgarner and Kershaw are the 1st picks in their respective drafts.
 
You're attributing the bust of top 5 college pitchers as being because they had 'limited' arms while attributing the bust of hS pitchers to apparently other things. I promise you, Bryan Bullington did not have a limited arm.

Arguing that a guy like Bumgarner always had a higher ceiling and more talent than a guy like Price because he didn't go to college is asinine. They're both stud aces with elite arms. In fact, most would tell you Price has more pure arm talent.

Sure, Kershaw is amazing. What does that have to do with the overall argument. If there is an obvious Kershaw in the draft, then certainly take him. If there is a Price, take him. If there is a Bumgarner, take him. If there is a Prior, take him. If there is a Harper, take him. If there is a Braun, take him. If there is a Chipper, take him. That's my point.
 
KB21 said:
I'm saying that those kinds of players in college ball are few and far between. Will Clark and Rafael Palmeiro types don't play college ball today.

And who goes just outside of the top 5 is perfectly relevant to the discussion, because in hindsight, Bumgarner and Kershaw are the 1st picks in their respective drafts.
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No, it isn't relevant. It's easier to find top HS talent outside the top 5 than top college talent. I agree with you on that and have repeatedly said so. But it is not easier to find top HS talent than college talent inside the top 5, which is where we'll be picking.

And I've given you plenty of recent examples of college players who became studs. They are there, and they are not that rare in that on average, there's at least one per year.
 
Since 2000, here's the group of top players out of college taken in the top 5:
Mark Prior
Mark Teixiera
Justin Verlander
Ryan Braun
Ryan Zimmerman
Alex Gordon
Evan Longoria
David Price
Buster Posey
Matt Wieters
Stephen Strasburg
Kris Bryant
Gerri's Cole
Rickie Weeks
Trevor Bauer
Kyle Schwarber
Carlos Rodon

Here's the group of top HS players taken in the top 5 in the same span:
Adrian Gonzalez
Joe Mauer
Justin Upton
Mike Moustakas
BJ Upton
Delmon Young
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
Carlos Correa
Byron Buxton

There's elite talent on both lists, but you only have to go 10 deep on the HS names before you're having to include BJ Upton and Delmon Young.

Sure, Kershaw was taken 7th. Lincecum and Scherzer went 10-11 in the same draft. Sonny Gray was taken 18th in 2011. Those random examples don't mean anything. If there is an elite college talent available to you, it is much smarter, in most cases, to take that player over the HS player...and not because they are simply more likely to make the majors in some capacity. They are also more likely to become a stud.
 
There isn't much doubt you need to approach different segments of the draft differently. The top 5 picks is different from the rest of the first round (in terms of how heavily you lean on college vs HS, hitters vs pitchers). The first round is different from the supplemental picks and second and third rounds, which are different from the middle rounds (4 to 10), which are different from the late rounds. For each of those segments the historical yield differs by type (college pitcher, college hitter, HS hitter, HS pitcher). You don't want to to be a slave to those statistical tendencies, but you don't want to ignore them either.
 
This argument really is a bit silly. Elite talent is elite talent, regardless of where it comes from.

Also, thank you to the Reds. It's becoming more and more unlikely that we finish any worse than #2.
 
Havent looked at any draft players yet but elite talent is elite talent.

If you scout well, pretty easy to tell who will be great at the top.
 
Things are coming together. Fredi will make sure we are in the top 2 for sure. And honestly if the Phillies do get the #1 pick I feel that they will botch it and we'll get who we want anyways.
 
thewupk said:
Things are coming together. Fredi will make sure we are in the top 2 for sure. And honestly if the Phillies do get the #1 pick I feel that they will botch it and we'll get who we want anyways.
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Maybe Philly will take the college arm leaving Atlanta the high upside high school arm Jason Groome.
 
Tournament of Stars Report

From Fangraphs. It is a little dated, but it highlights a few of the players that could be under consideration. Primarily Jason Groome for those of us who feel we should target pitching, and possibly Will Benson for those that think we should get a hitter.


I'd love to have Jason Groome and Kolby Allard highlight the pitching prospects for Atlanta going foward. Nice, easy, fluid, athletic pitching motion. Fastball runs 94-96 consistently with a nasty curve ball from the same arm slot. Potential for 3 plus pitches.


Projection, projection, projection!! I can see the Heyward similarities.
 
I think people are discounting the effect a good coaching/scouting department can have on prospects. Like the Royals organization is absolute death to pitching prospects. Their best 2 over the last 20 years are Greinke who pretty much developed himself yet they still almost screwed him up and Yordano Ventura who debuted last year. I dont think a guy like Smoltz would be a HoF pitcher if he stayed with Detroit, they didnt even have a pitching coach for him in the minor leagues.
 
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