2016 DRAFT Signing Tracker ... FINAL, JULY 15

Glad Muller/Wentz signed.

Also no way in hell Lewis signs for 4 mil at 3, no way.
 
He doesn't have the knowledge that he would be picked 11th if he was picked 3rd. I don't know why that is not being grasped.
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No? I saw quite a few day of mock drafts that had him slipping to 10. If Callis/Law/etc. know it's going to happen, then I'm sure he probably had a pretty good idea about it.

Sure they're going to try to negotiate to his minimum. And Lewis will try to negotiate to the Braves' maximum. Because that's how deals work. So he won't end up at either. The Braves' max would be anything south of the actual slot value, and Lewis' minimum would be something a good bit lower. They will meet in the middle.
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"he won't end up at either" is called equilibrium, i.e. the minimum amount of money he was willing to sign for and the maximum amount the team was willing to pay. I know what negotiations are. We are making the same point here.

Lewis' true minimum is likely not $3.2 million. It's likely much lower. But he got $3.2 million because of where he was picked. Again, why is this difficult to understand? You can't go into a negotiation and say, 'Eh, what if you were drafted 11th?' Lewis would simply say, 'I don't care, you took me 3rd.'
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What about Ian Anderson? The Braves just drafted him 3rd and he has a hell of a lot more leverage than Lewis did. Is he going to say "I don't care, you took me third. I want $5 million". I take it if he did say that, then we would have seen another name at #3.

You focus on the fact that Lewis wouldn't just go back to college for a million or so, but you neglect the fact that the Braves wouldn't let him go back to college over a million or so, either.
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The Braves would never put themselves in that position before they selected him. This negotiation would have taken place weeks before (and I'm sure it did). So, sure if they drafted him and he turned around and asked for a million more than the agreed upon amount pre-draft than the Braves would be in a pickle. It's also very possible Lewis and the Braves did have this discussion and he did say "5 million or I'm not signing" and the Braves moved on. But if he did do that, his agent is an idiot because it was common knowledge that if the Braves didn't select him at three then he wasn't going to be selected by any of the teams immediate following them, i.e. no one was going to pay him $5 million.
 
Heyward said:
He was asking for 5-5.5 i think and they only had 6ish total to work with in their entire draft pool.
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He will go overslot, but I doubt it will be for more than 4 million. He doesn't have much upside waiting a year and he is risking a lot health and performance wise.
 
chop2chip said:
He will go overslot, but I doubt it will be for more than 4 million. He doesn't have much upside waiting a year and he is risking a lot health and performance wise.
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It's a gamble, but it could be worth it. If he decides not to sign, he could go to JUCO and dominate; he's got an even better track record, time to get that negative buzz around his character sorted out, and he would probably go number 1 overall. He could go to JUCO and not do great; he'd drop stock some, but probably not much considering his physical tools. He could go to JUCO and get hurt; depending on the injury, he'd probably end up right about where he is now. Or he could sign at 12 this year, probably taking less than he initially wanted. All about betting on himself.
 
praeceps93 said:
It's a gamble, but it could be worth it. If he decides not to sign, he could go to JUCO and dominate; he's got an even better track record, time to get that negative buzz around his character sorted out, and he would probably go number 1 overall. He could go to JUCO and not do great; he'd drop stock some, but probably not much considering his physical tools. He could go to JUCO and get hurt; depending on the injury, he'd probably end up right about where he is now. Or he could sign at 12 this year, probably taking less than he initially wanted. All about betting on himself.
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If he doesn't sign and goes back in the draft we could draft him no? How's this for a two year haul: Groome, Anderson, Wentz, Muller. Ha! (to h3ll with bats)!
 
Heyward said:
He was asking for 5-5.5 i think and they only had 6ish total to work with in their entire draft pool.
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The thing with the Red Sox is that if they don't sign Groome, they get an extra first round pick next year (and a bigger budget pool), so it's not the end of the world if they don't get him to ink.
 
praeceps93 said:
It's a gamble, but it could be worth it. If he decides not to sign, he could go to JUCO and dominate; he's got an even better track record, time to get that negative buzz around his character sorted out, and he would probably go number 1 overall. He could go to JUCO and not do great; he'd drop stock some, but probably not much considering his physical tools. He could go to JUCO and get hurt; depending on the injury, he'd probably end up right about where he is now. Or he could sign at 12 this year, probably taking less than he initially wanted. All about betting on himself.
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Next year supposedly has some really strong college pitching and high school position players, so he would really have demonstrate that the makeup concerns are of naught.
 
Couldn't sign in for the longest but now that I'm finally signed in I just wanted to say I absolutely loved this draft!
 
Gondeee has reported that Pokorney, Stanton, Schlosser, Danciu have signed. Pretty rare to knock down late round picks, but Stanton and Schlosser are guys who know the system and the people. Stanton is Mike's son.
 
rico43 said:
Gondeee has reported that Pokorney, Stanton, Schlosser, Danciu have signed. Pretty rare to knock down late round picks, but Stanton and Schlosser are guys who know the system and the people. Stanton is Mike's son.
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Schlosser isn't relate to Gus.
 
chop2chip said:
No? I saw quite a few day of mock drafts that had him slipping to 10. If Callis/Law/etc. know it's going to happen, then I'm sure he probably had a pretty good idea about it.

"he won't end up at either" is called equilibrium, i.e. the minimum amount of money he was willing to sign for and the maximum amount the team was willing to pay. I know what negotiations are. We are making the same point here.

What about Ian Anderson? The Braves just drafted him 3rd and he has a hell of a lot more leverage than Lewis did. Is he going to say "I don't care, you took me third. I want $5 million". I take it if he did say that, then we would have seen another name at #3.

The Braves would never put themselves in that position before they selected him. This negotiation would have taken place weeks before (and I'm sure it did). So, sure if they drafted him and he turned around and asked for a million more than the agreed upon amount pre-draft than the Braves would be in a pickle. It's also very possible Lewis and the Braves did have this discussion and he did say "5 million or I'm not signing" and the Braves moved on. But if he did do that, his agent is an idiot because it was common knowledge that if the Braves didn't select him at three then he wasn't going to be selected by any of the teams immediate following them, i.e. no one was going to pay him $5 million.
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I appreciate your logic and common sense... but arguing that that the Braves could have signed Lewis, Wentz, and Muller would be an indication that potentially the FO miscalculated... and that is a no-no around here
 
Heyward said:
He was asking for 5-5.5 i think and they only had 6ish total to work with in their entire draft pool.
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If a kid turned down $3M-$4M to play professional baseball I would immediately question his character and desire to be a professional baseball player and let him walk. I want the kid that says, "I want to sign and get started right away", not the kid that holds out for every last dollar and threatens to go play at a stupid JUCO if he doesn't get his way.

I want guys like Lewis, Wentz and Muller who signed and are ready to lace up and get going. I do NOT want guys like Appel and Aiken who treat it like a business decision from the very beginning.
 
Enscheff said:
If a kid turned down $3M-$4M to play professional baseball I would immediately question his character and desire to be a professional baseball player and let him walk. I want the kid that says, "I want to sign and get started right away", not the kid that holds out for every last dollar and threatens to go play at a stupid JUCO if he doesn't get his way.

I want guys like Lewis, Wentz and Muller who signed and are ready to lace up and get going. I do NOT want guys like Appel and Aiken who treat it like a business decision from the very beginning.
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I think you can get a read on that from who they choose as an agent.
 
there's a difference between questioning moves and pretending to be certain about the ins-and-outs of things you can't possibly know much about. using hindsight information when a situation turns out drastically differently than the hypothetical one you're forming an opinion on is quite silly and has little bearing on the hypothetical. i suppose it's fun to make up scenarios and pretend to be certain about things that have never happened before, but that doesn't make it realistic.
 
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