2016 Payroll

[smootness]

I agree 100%.

I look at it like this: Defensive value has many external factors that play into the valuation that aren't necessarily accounted for. For example, defensive value certainly is affected by the play of other players on the field. Take Greg Maddux for example - heavy ground ball pitcher (rare rf relevance), significant K pitcher (no rf significance), got tons of ball in play back up the middle (no rf relevance).

Also, the other team has an effect on defensive relevance for a player. What if the other team is full of RH pull bats? The rf ends up standing around.

Also, the defensive coaches play a part. What if Heyward is positioned wrong where he has to run, successfully, to make a play? That makes the play better than it should have been. What if the coaches always have the rf positioned right where he should be? Then his opportunities to provide above average impact are diminished.

Also, how does defense translate over time? Andruw Jones was great early but all the belly flops (sometimes unnecessarily) over time eroded his ability (and affected his bat).

The value of defense is relative. It's good to have it but it doesn't always have the opportunity to be used. Whereas hitting ability is always used, every at bat.

But most of this could also be used to describe offense. You're arguing that on a game-by-game basis, defensive value can be negated somewhat. Well, if a really good hitter who is merely decent against lefties faces a LHP, then his offensive value is diminished. Teams can shift defensively to negate a pull hitter's value, they can pitch around them, the manager may call for a bunt or hit and run, etc. All these same arguments can go the other way, too.

I would argue defensive value is actually less volatile than offensive value for most players, and offense declines with age just as defense does.

The advanced defensive metrics try to measure the value the player is actually providing, given all the variables you mentioned, not just a theoretical value under certain circumstances.

Also, most metrics are based on certain fielding zones, so positioning matters, but in the opposite way you think. A player positioning himself well will be valued higher because he will get to more balls; a player who consistently positions himself poorly will be hurt because he won't. Running further because you're out of position doesn't help you in these metrics.

 

[smootness]

That's right. He's looking at him saying he's a 5-6 WAR player, which is an all-star or better; you and I, who are skeptical of the relative value of defense in the WAR equation (you call Heyward above average; I'll go further and say he's the best defensive RF in baseball) and do not value him the way we would value a player whose 5-6 WAR were mainly made up of the offense component, maybe Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt.

WAR has become a handy shorthand for valuing a player and is never accompanied with all the disclaimers its authors give, talking about major year-to-year swings in dWAR and using it as an estimate not an absolute and so forth. And if it is going to take on that kind of prominence, it simply must be improved.

Hey, I understand the surface logic that a run saved equals a run produced. But consider this: nearly every run is produced. Not every run is saved. You don't have that many chances to do something extraordinary on the field to save runs. Does that make sense?

There's something wrong with the weighting of the accrual of DRS that gets guys way above the standard deviation accrual too quickly. The impact of X DRS needs to be tamped down a bit, maybe by half or so. And it bothers me a lot that certain skills aren't picked up in dWAR, like a 1B's ability to pick it (they aren't all the same) and a lot of things about catching.

I think in a few years somebody is going to refine defensive statistics to incorporate those things and recognize the relative weights of defense and you advanced stat guys will say, "of course. It's always been so," after so many years of defending this WAR shorthand.

Goldschmidt is about a 7-8 WAR player right now, and Votto has been more like a 6-7 WAR guy. Heyward has been more of a 3-6 WAR guy, less than both and with wider variance. So it's not as though these defensive metrics are making him out to be the same player as those guys.

And I don't understand your argument of 'every run is produced, but not every run is saved'. Obviously the runs that were scored were not saved.

You seem to believe that only extraordinary plays save runs. Just as runs produced is measured against a certain standard (a 'replacement player'), so are runs saved. A replacement hitter will still produce some runs, and a replacement fielder will still save runs.

You're basically evaluating offense by comparing a player's offensive production to 0 (as though no one could have hit in that player's place and produced the same) while evaluating defense by comparing a player's defensive production with a 'normal', or average, fielder. If you say every run is produced as absolute value, then every play made on defense, even a routine one, does save a run because if that player hadn't been there, the ball would just roll to the fence as every runner scored.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

But most of this could also be used to describe offense. You're arguing that on a game-by-game basis, defensive value can be negated somewhat. Well, if a really good hitter who is merely decent against lefties faces a LHP, then his offensive value is diminished. Teams can shift defensively to negate a pull hitter's value, they can pitch around them, the manager may call for a bunt or hit and run, etc. All these same arguments can go the other way, too.

I would argue defensive value is actually less volatile than offensive value for most players, and offense declines with age just as defense does.

The advanced defensive metrics try to measure the value the player is actually providing, given all the variables you mentioned, not just a theoretical value under certain circumstances.

Also, most metrics are based on certain fielding zones, so positioning matters, but in the opposite way you think. A player positioning himself well will be valued higher because he will get to more balls; a player who consistently positions himself poorly will be hurt because he won't. Running further because you're out of position doesn't help you in these metrics.

Offensive value is a matter exclusively based on the talent of the player. Can he hit or not.

Defensive value is somewhat dependent on external factors that may prevent the player from even being in a play for an entire game.

 

[smootness]

Offensive value is a matter exclusively based on the talent of the player. Can he hit or not.

Defensive value is somewhat dependent on external factors that may prevent the player from even being in a play for an entire game.

That's not true at all, not the way they're measured. How do you explain the consistency of defensive value for the same player over time?

There are factors that could render an offensive player useless in a game as well. Sure, there are an uncertain number of defensive plays for a specific player each game, and most of the time you know you'll get 3-5 PAs. But those even out over time. Just because when and where a defensive play may happen is less predictable than when a player will hit doesn't make the value less. And defensive value is not equal to offensive value in pretty much any overall player valuation.

But you're arguing that current methods overrate defense, and you're not really giving a solid reason as to why. Every variable you've listed is also accounted for in current metrics.

 

[thewupk]

That's right. He's looking at him saying he's a 5-6 WAR player, which is an all-star or better; you and I, who are skeptical of the relative value of defense in the WAR equation (you call Heyward above average; I'll go further and say he's the best defensive RF in baseball) and do not value him the way we would value a player whose 5-6 WAR were mainly made up of the offense component, maybe Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt.

WAR has become a handy shorthand for valuing a player and is never accompanied with all the disclaimers its authors give, talking about major year-to-year swings in dWAR and using it as an estimate not an absolute and so forth. And if it is going to take on that kind of prominence, it simply must be improved.

Hey, I understand the surface logic that a run saved equals a run produced. But consider this: nearly every run is produced. Not every run is saved. You don't have that many chances to do something extraordinary on the field to save runs. Does that make sense?

There's something wrong with the weighting of the accrual of DRS that gets guys way above the standard deviation accrual too quickly. The impact of X DRS needs to be tamped down a bit, maybe by half or so. And it bothers me a lot that certain skills aren't picked up in dWAR, like a 1B's ability to pick it (they aren't all the same) and a lot of things about catching.

I think in a few years somebody is going to refine defensive statistics to incorporate those things and recognize the relative weights of defense and you advanced stat guys will say, "of course. It's always been so," after so many years of defending this WAR shorthand.

Yes. Which is why defensive is valued about a third of what the equivalent on offense is.

 

[steveAKAslick]

Doesn't Braun make sense if we take on all his contract, therefore, reducing the price we pay in terms of prospects?

Over 30 with his best seasons presumably when he was juicing...

 

[blueagleace1]

Over 30 with his best seasons presumably when he was juicing...

He is on pace to put up the following numbers: .266 AVG, .335 OBP, .821 OPS and 121 OPS+ with 30 HR, 98 RBI, 90 R, and 23 SB

Now compare that to Justin Upton (yes I know their home parks are totally different that's why I put in OPS+): .249 AVG, .325 OBP, .760 OPS and 116 OPS+ with 28 HR, 88 RBI, 80 R, and 27 SB

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Yes. Which is why defensive is valued about a third of what the equivalent on offense is.

So if Simmons, who averaged 4.5 dWAR the last two seasons, were as good with the bat as he is with the glove, he would've averaged 13.5 oWAR those two years?

Mm.

 

[thewupk]

So if Simmons, who averaged 4.5 dWAR the last two seasons, were as good with the bat as he is with the glove, he would've averaged 13.5 oWAR those two years?

Mm.

I'm assuming you got that number from baseball ref? Different metrics so I'm not sure how that converts to their offense.

But on fangraphs Simmons was 31.6 and 22.1 defensive runs above replacement in 2013 and 2014 when adding in position. The offensive equivalent to that would be around 93 and 66 runs above replacement give or take. Which would put him in Bonds category in 2013 season and generally any league leader for a year in the 2014 season. So yeah I have no problem saying that. Simmons those 2 years is some of the best SS defense the game has ever seen. Offensively that would compare to some of the better seasons around. Again the 1/3rd value isn't exact but a close enough measure to give you a good idea.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Goldschmidt is about a 7-8 WAR player right now, and Votto has been more like a 6-7 WAR guy. Heyward has been more of a 3-6 WAR guy, less than both and with wider variance. So it's not as though these defensive metrics are making him out to be the same player as those guys.

And I don't understand your argument of 'every run is produced, but not every run is saved'. Obviously the runs that were scored were not saved.

You seem to believe that only extraordinary plays save runs. Just as runs produced is measured against a certain standard (a 'replacement player'), so are runs saved. A replacement hitter will still produce some runs, and a replacement fielder will still save runs.

You're basically evaluating offense by comparing a player's offensive production to 0 (as though no one could have hit in that player's place and produced the same) while evaluating defense by comparing a player's defensive production with a 'normal', or average, fielder. If you say every run is produced as absolute value, then every play made on defense, even a routine one, does save a run because if that player hadn't been there, the ball would just roll to the fence as every runner scored.

My basic problem is the same as it's always been - good defenders get overvalued by WAR. I've actually dug into the definition and the logic of the statistic, but I know Jason Heyward isn't worth anything close to what the saber guys are suggesting in this thread. Can I quantify that to your liking? I cannot. But if somewhere there's a front office who lets the WAR wonks run the show and they pay him $22-25m because he's excellent defensively in RF, that's going to be money badly spent. It just is. If you feel otherwise, I don't know what to tell you. You're entitled to your opinion. So am I. Even if I'm a Luddite who doesn't buy in to the defensive component of WAR.

 

[thewupk]

My basic problem is the same as it's always been - good defenders get overvalued by WAR. I've actually dug into the definition and the logic of the statistic, but I know Jason Heyward isn't worth anything close to what the saber guys are suggesting in this thread. Can I quantify that to your liking? I cannot. But if somewhere there's a front office who lets the WAR wonks run the show and they pay him $22-25m because he's excellent defensively in RF, that's going to be money badly spent. It just is. If you feel otherwise, I don't know what to tell you. You're entitled to your opinion. So am I. Even if I'm a Luddite who doesn't buy in to the defensive component of WAR.

So how should WAR value defense to you then? How many Runs Above Replacment should say Simmons be worth in a given year?

 

[Enscheff]

The problem I have with defensive metrics is that you can't realistically defend your way to 0 runs allowed, and you absolutely can't defend your way to less than 0 runs allowed. There will always be walks, HRs, and hits that no human will be able to catch. Because of that, defense does not add indefinitely, whereas offense does.

As you get better and better as a team defensively, the benefit of adding more defense tails off and diminishing returns kick in.

 

[Chico]

Not sure where to put this, so we'll try it here. I believe one route we may take is taking on a contract to get a prospect. That player would need to provide some value to us, even if he's overpaid. Miguel Montero is a guy that might fit that mold. He's owed $24 Million over 16 and 17. There's a good article here http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/miguel-montero’s-future-unclear-schwarber-sticks-cubs

It should also be pointed out that Montero worked closely with Castillo and developed a reputation as a good leader for the Diamondbacks, looking after young players from Latin America, taking them to Phoenix Suns games and out to dinner.

Montero would even watch minor-league games during spring training, believing prospects should feel comfortable and part of the organization.

“That’s not going to change,” Montero said, framing his relationship with Schwarber. “It ain’t his fault. So why am I going to take it out on him? It ain’t his fault. I want him to be the best that he can be. And he’s got the potential to be really good.”

 

[smootness]

The problem I have with defensive metrics is that you can't realistically defend your way to 0 runs allowed, and you absolutely can't defend your way to less than 0 runs allowed. There will always be walks, HRs, and hits that no human will be able to catch. Because of that, defense does not add indefinitely, whereas offense does.

As you get better and better as a team defensively, the benefit of adding more defense tails off and diminishing returns kick in.

This is a solid point.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Looking at the offense for next year I think we could be really solid just by making a few small moves. Sign Uribe and KJ who wont be too expensive or require long term deals. That would give us some extreme position versatility. Olivera can play 3B, 2B, and LF. Uribe can play 3B well and spot start at 2B. KJ can play LF,3B,2B,1B. Adonis Garcia can play 3B/LF. Between Olivera/Peterson/Uribe/KJ/Garcia we should be able to fill 2B/3B/LF with average production. We also have Eury and Mallex to throw in the LF mix. That leaves plenty of room to add a top tier starter in free agency.

 

[thewupk]

The problem I have with defensive metrics is that you can't realistically defend your way to 0 runs allowed, and you absolutely can't defend your way to less than 0 runs allowed. There will always be walks, HRs, and hits that no human will be able to catch. Because of that, defense does not add indefinitely, whereas offense does.

As you get better and better as a team defensively, the benefit of adding more defense tails off and diminishing returns kick in.

While that's true, WAR doesn't work in that manner offensively or defensively. It's all about valuing players compared to their peers. So if we are in a theoretical league where every player is elite defensively then those players wouldn't have much value on the defensive side of WAR. Same goes for hitters. A 930 OPS in todays game is worth about 58 runs above replacement. 15 years ago that same 930 OPS was only worth about 35 runs above replacement.

So WAR doesn't try and measure a players true talent level. Just their talent level relative to the league they are playing in. And I think that's a good call since All-Star voting and ultimately HOF recognition is about how much better you were than your peers.

 

[Enscheff]

2016 payroll after the Swisher/Bourn trades. Not sure exactly how to factor in the money CLE sent over, so I just knocked both players' salaries down by $5M. In the original post I forgot Miller will be hitting arb this offseason, so I assigned him $4M...slightly more than Minor's first arb year.

Side note on Miller: it might be worthwhile to try to sign him to a 4-5 year deal covering his 3 arb years plus 1-2 FA years. Figure he will make ~$20M in his 3 arb years, so that plus about $15M per FA year would make a lot of sense. He could then hit FA around age 30.

Total is currently around $78M, leaving anywhere from $22M-$42M to spend next year (I'm guessing closer to $25M considering how bad attendance is this year and likely will be next year) with spots open at C, backup C, a few slots in the BP, and LF (I am not going to admit Bourn is supposed to be the everyday LFer for 2016). The bench currently has nobody to play IF, which will obviously change, but the guys listed are going to be paid regardless. I kept Gomes on there because someone on the bench will be making around $3M so...why not?

Catcher $0.0
Freeman $12.0
Peterson $0.5
Olivera $4.0
Simmons $6.0
Markakis $10.5
Maybin $8.0
LF $0.0

Swisher $10.0
Gomes $3.0
Toscano $1.0
Bourn $9.0
Catcher $0.0

Wisler $0.5
Teheran $3.3
Perez $0.5
Miller $4.0
Folty $0.5

Grilli $3.5
Viz $0.5
Shae $0.5
Paco $0.5
BP5 $0.0
BP6 $0.0
BP7 $0.0

total $77.8

 

[nsacpi]

2016 payroll after the Swisher/Bourn trades. Not sure exactly how to factor in the money CLE sent over, so I just knocked both players' salaries down by $5M. In the original post I forgot Miller will be hitting arb this offseason, so I assigned him $4M...slightly more than Minor's first arb year.

Side note on Miller: it might be worthwhile to try to sign him to a 4-5 year deal covering his 3 arb years plus 1-2 FA years. Figure he will make ~$20M in his 3 arb years, so that plus about $15M per FA year would make a lot of sense. He could then hit FA around age 30.

Total is currently around $78M, leaving anywhere from $22M-$42M to spend next year (I'm guessing closer to $25M considering how bad attendance is this year and likely will be next year) with spots open at C, backup C, a few slots in the BP, and LF (I am not going to admit Bourn is supposed to be the everyday LFer for 2016). The bench currently has nobody to play IF, which will obviously change, but the guys listed are going to be paid regardless. I kept Gomes on there because someone on the bench will be making around $3M so...why not?

Catcher $0.0
Freeman $12.0
Peterson $0.5
Olivera $4.0
Simmons $6.0
Markakis $10.5
Maybin $8.0
LF $0.0

Swisher $10.0
Gomes $3.0
Toscano $1.0
Bourn $9.0
Catcher $0.0

Wisler $0.5
Teheran $3.3
Perez $0.5
Miller $4.0
Folty $0.5

Grilli $3.5
Viz $0.5
Shae $0.5
Paco $0.5
BP5 $0.0
BP6 $0.0
BP7 $0.0

total $77.8

Looks reasonable. I think the team has 20-30M to play with. With the glut in FA starting pitching my guess is we'll pick up a starter. We will likely have to spend some on a catcher and maybe on a reliever. Even if we bring back AJ to pitch, he will get a raise. Probably to around 5M.

Picking up a veteran starter would fit in with a strategy of building up enough starting pitching depth to trade one of our young arms for someone to play left in 2017. Same concept as the Wood for Olivera trade.

If we trade Maybin and/or Bourn we would obviously have a bit more money to play with.

 

[Braves1976]

Looks reasonable. I think the team has 20-30M to play with. With the glut in FA starting pitching my guess is we'll pick up a starter. We will likely have to spend some on a catcher and maybe on a reliever. Even if we bring back AJ to pitch, he will get a raise. Probably to around 5M.

Picking up a veteran starter would fit in with a strategy of building up enough starting pitching depth to trade one of our young arms for someone to play left in 2017. Same concept as the Wood for Olivera trade.

Kazmir seems to make the most sense for us, shouldn't be as costly as some other big names and a lefty to replace Wood. Plus Kazmir has the stuff the Braves seem to look for too. But I could also see him staying in Houston as that is his hometown team.

 

[Braves1976]

If we trade Maybin and/or Bourn we would obviously have a bit more money to play with.

I do think Maybin days are numbered, it's probably just a matter of how much we get back. We may have missed the boat already on selling high and could end up trading him for less this off-season. Time will tell.