2018 Offseason And Targets

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DontStopTheChop said:
So is that a yes? That 1 year of Bumgarner is more valuable than the combined value of Newk/Fried?
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For next year only, in a vacuum, absolutely.

Long term? Who can say? If those guys tank next year, they'll be worth literally nothing. On the flip side of that, Newk/Fried could completely turn around their entire careers and learn how to actually pitch?

Which one of those scenarios seems more likely to you?
 
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CrazyTrain said:
For next year only, in a vacuum, absolutely.

Long term? Who can say? If those guys tank next year, they'll be worth literally nothing.
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And what will a 30 year old Bumgarner be worth if he struggles? Or gets hurt for the third consecutive year? The answer is nothing because he’ll be a free agent at years end.

And to the opposite, Fried/Newk’s value will skyrocket if they play well. And you’re right. Who can say? We aren’t fortune tellers. Which is exactly why you don’t trade players of their caliber who are under control for an aging, declining pitcher with only one year of control. It’s to mitigate that type of risk. See my previous reply, windows closing before they should.
 
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DontStopTheChop said:
Your point that we may not have done a good job of acquiring good pitchers may be true. It’s too early to tell. (IMO that’s another reason to NOT trade them and sell low).

But, you lost me after your first point. Bumgarner is clearly on a decline and your using ERAs to determine a player’s value. There’s way more to it than that. Contractual control and salary are huge aspects that you aren’t considering.

Do you really have think that Madison Bumgarner at 29 with 1 year of contractual control at 12M is more valuable than 9 combined years of control of Fried/Newk at league minimum/arbitration?
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You can say he's clearly on the decline, but the very same arguments were made about Verlander and actually about Cole Hamels (speaking of effect on 2018, not the residue of his contract) and the wisdom or ill wisdom of acquiring those guys respectively.

Depending on the acquisition cost, it's a relatively safe gamble. There is no commitment here. You are really only risking what you give up. And your upside is you have really good pitcher who needed better health or perhaps a new perspective.

I personally don't see the Giants getting 50 million dollars of surplus value out of one year of Bumgarner, and I would walk away from that deal in a heartbeat.

I wouldn't give more than Newk or Fried straight up. I'd be hesitant with Newk. I honestly don't care much about Fried and doubt that his trade value is much higher. But I would expect the front office to have shopped one or both around the league to figure out that value and to make decisions accordingly.
 
Southcack77 said:
You can say he's clearly on the decline, but the very same arguments were made about Verlander and actually about Cole Hamels (speaking of effect on 2018, not the residue of his contract) and the wisdom or ill wisdom of acquiring those guys respectively.

Depending on the acquisition cost, it's a relatively safe gamble. There is no commitment here. You are really only risking what you give up. And your upside is you have really good pitcher who needed better health or perhaps a new perspective.

I personally don't see the Giants getting 50 million dollars of surplus value out of one year of Bumgarner, and I would walk away from that deal in a heartbeat.

I wouldn't give more than Newk or Fried straight up. I'd be hesitant with Newk. I honestly don't care much about Fried and doubt that his trade value is much higher. But I would expect the front office to have shopped one or both around the league to figure out that value and to make decisions accordingly.
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Which is why I said I’d be interested in Bumgarner if the cost was reasonable. Newk/Fried isn’t reasonable.

Did the tigers/rangers receive a package similar to Newk/Fried for verlander/hamels? Wonder why.
 
Southcack77 said:
You can say he's clearly on the decline, but the very same arguments were made about Verlander and actually about Cole Hamels (speaking of effect on 2018, not the residue of his contract) and the wisdom or ill wisdom of acquiring those guys respectively.

Depending on the acquisition cost, it's a relatively safe gamble. There is no commitment here. You are really only risking what you give up. And your upside is you have really good pitcher who needed better health or perhaps a new perspective.

I personally don't see the Giants getting 50 million dollars of surplus value out of one year of Bumgarner, and I would walk away from that deal in a heartbeat.

I wouldn't give more than Newk or Fried straight up. I'd be hesitant with Newk. I honestly don't care much about Fried and doubt that his trade value is much higher. But I would expect the front office to have shopped one or both around the league to figure out that value and to make decisions accordingly.
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I’d be thrilled to only have to deal one because that means I can use the other in another deal.

Bumgarner's injuries were fluke. Bike accident and broken finger. The shoulder injury would scare me more if it wasn’t already over a season ago.
 
CrazyTrain said:
For next year only, in a vacuum, absolutely.

Long term? Who can say? If those guys tank next year, they'll be worth literally nothing. On the flip side of that, Newk/Fried could completely turn around their entire careers and learn how to actually pitch?

Which one of those scenarios seems more likely to you?
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Their entire careers of 2 years. Lol. I admire that you are passionate and I doubt there is anything that I can say to change your mind but if AA trades Newk/Fried for Bumgarner, I hope he’s fired. That would be an absurd price to pay. It’s so bad that even Dave Stewart would hang up the phone.
 
DontStopTheChop said:
Which is why I said I’d be interested in Bumgarner if the cost was reasonable. Newk/Fried isn’t reasonable.

Did the tigers/rangers receive a package similar to Newk/Fried for verlander/hamels? Wonder why.
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I'm not arguing with the idea that Bumgarner shouldn't fetch Newk/Fried. I don't think he will.

Verlander and HAmels obviously had a somewhat different contract situation.
 
DontStopTheChop said:
Which is why I said I’d be interested in Bumgarner if the cost was reasonable. Newk/Fried isn’t reasonable.

Did the tigers/rangers receive a package similar to Newk/Fried for verlander/hamels? Wonder why.
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The Tigers got the 3, 9 and 11 prospects from the Astros. That’s not a weak package at all.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'm not arguing with the idea that Bumgarner shouldn't fetch Newk/Fried. I don't think he will.

Verlander and HAmels obviously had a somewhat different contract situation.
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Their contract situation (cost and years of control) combined with their age and there performance is EXACTLY why both verlander and hamels didn’t attract such a package. And that’s exactly what CrazyTrain wants us to do. Trade for him and re-sign him to a deal that’s going to be an albatross on the backend. Makes no sense. That’s not what successful teams do.
 
CrazyTrain said:
The Tigers got the 3, 9 and 11 prospects from the Astros. That’s not a weak package at all.
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Can you calculate the surplus value of those prospects and compare them to Verlanders surplus value? Don’t forget the contenders premium.

Then do the same for Newk/Fried/Bumgarner?
 
DontStopTheChop said:
Their entire careers of 2 years. Lol. I admire that you are passionate and I doubt there is anything that I can say to change your mind but if AA trades Newk/Fried for Bumgarner, I hope he’s fired. That would be an absurd price to pay. It’s so bad that even Dave Stewart would hang up the phone.
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You think their problems are 2 years old and that control is something you learn over an offseason? Newk is already 25.
 
Bumgarner has value but he's not getting 50 mil plus surplus value. He has 1 year left on his deal. Verlander, a proven horse with 3 years left on his deal didnt even get that much and he's obviously better than Bumgarner.
 
DontStopTheChop said:
Can you calculate the surplus value of those prospects and compare them to Verlanders surplus value? Don’t forget the contenders premium.

Then do the same for Newk/Fried/Bumgarner?
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I could, but dont care to.

My bottom line is that I don’t want to waste a good core of positional players on more bad pitching, which is what is going to happen if we don’t improve from an external source.
 
CrazyTrain said:
I could, but dont care to.

My bottom line is that I don’t want to waste a good core of positional players on more bad pitching, which is what is going to happen if we don’t improve from an external source.
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The Braves weren’t a team with poor starting pitching last year though.
 
CrazyTrain said:
I could, but dont care to.

My bottom line is that I don’t want to waste a good core of positional players on more bad pitching, which is what is going to happen if we don’t improve from an external source.
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Braves offense was a bigger concern than the pitching last year.
 
DontStopTheChop said:
The Braves weren’t a team with poor starting pitching last year though.
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They had the second most walks in all of baseball and were middle of the road for WAR. Our only other starter with solid WAR is a free agent. Maybe Soroka can come back healthy and make a huge impact, but the rotation is sketchy at best.

If we don’t add a TOR arm we are at least three years out from making a serious run at being a contender for a ring and that’s only contingent on some of these kids actually being good.
 
You really don't need an ace to be a good team but having that guy that can get hot in the postseason as a SP will push most teams over. I actually think the bullpen is even more important and can carry you for a while but the hot SP will close the deal.

I'd take that "TOR" stuff and just go away because I don't think the Braves get anyone huge pitching wise.
 
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