2018 Offseason And Targets

[BeanieAntics]

Certainly not WAR, since he had 2.4 last year.

Lol Sean Newcomb had 1.7 bWAR last year. You're saying that you'd be willing to deal 5 more years of 1.7 WAR (or conceivably better) plus Fried (0.7 bWAR) for one year of Madison Bumgarner's 2.4 bWAR (or conceivably worse given aging curves)...

It'd just be a bad trade idea dude.

 

[salmagundy]

Who are the Braves 9 FAs?? Markakis and Sanchez are 2 that have filed. Who are the others?

 

[BeanieAntics]

Bumgarner has value but he's not getting 50 mil plus surplus value. He has 1 year left on his deal. Verlander, a proven horse with 3 years left on his deal didnt even get that much and he's obviously better than Bumgarner.

Verlander's contract was a nuisance, not an asset in that deal. He was owed 28 million dollars per year and hadn't exactly been pitching like an ace since 2012. The Giants aren't going to deal Bumgarner for a lesser package. He's going to cost us, which is why it'd be remarkably stupid to go after him.

Now, if the Giants call us and offer us Bumgarner for Tristan Beck or some crap... Obviously. But we shouldn't give up anything of substance for him.

 

[Enscheff]

You can say he's clearly on the decline, but the very same arguments were made about Verlander and actually about Cole Hamels (speaking of effect on 2018, not the residue of his contract) and the wisdom or ill wisdom of acquiring those guys respectively.

Depending on the acquisition cost, it's a relatively safe gamble. There is no commitment here. You are really only risking what you give up. And your upside is you have really good pitcher who needed better health or perhaps a new perspective.

I personally don't see the Giants getting 50 million dollars of surplus value out of one year of Bumgarner, and I would walk away from that deal in a heartbeat.

I wouldn't give more than Newk or Fried straight up. I'd be hesitant with Newk. I honestly don't care much about Fried and doubt that his trade value is much higher. But I would expect the front office to have shopped one or both around the league to figure out that value and to make decisions accordingly.

Agreed. One of Newk or Fried plus filler is fair value for Bum.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I could, but dont care to.

My bottom line is that I don’t want to waste a good core of positional players on more bad pitching, which is what is going to happen if we don’t improve from an external source.

I could sing like Whitney Houston, but I don't want to.

 

[Enscheff]

Can you calculate the surplus value of those prospects and compare them to Verlanders surplus value? Don’t forget the contenders premium.

Then do the same for Newk/Fried/Bumgarner?

Pretty sure that was done in the trade deadline thread if you want to look it up.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I put the egomaniac donkey in permanent timeout. No worries.

Lol... Oh you crazy bastard(In deep country accent). He's ain't going anywhere. He's still waitin' in the shadows, waitin' to use empirical data to humiliate innocent folk like yerself. He's still there. If I were you I'd leave while I still can. Last feller who came round these here parts came in with a smile, ready to shine in the world. When he left, he left in a loony wagon headin towards the asylum. Last thing we heard was his screams fading away...

"Matt Adams for Odorizzi makes sense damnit!!!!!"

Nobody knew what he meant.

 

[DontStopTheChop]

Pretty sure that was done in the trade deadline thread if you want to look it up.

Shhhh. It was. But, I wanted CrazyTrain (CrazyTrade) to do it in hopes that it would show them just how absurd the trade idea was.

 

[zbhargrove]

He had 4 walks in 4 innings in his second start. That's.... not very good.

Lol... seems as if you didn't watch the game...

 

[zbhargrove]

He also had a 1.36 WHIP, which is terrible and a better indicator of how good a pitcher is anyway.

Not really a good indicator for a young pitcher... you're really bad at this

 

[zbhargrove]

Certainly not WAR, since he had 2.4 last year.

And Folty had 3.9 bWAR... so how again is Folty not ace material but a guy with a 2.4 is? Yes a 2.4 is above average, it's not exciting or ace like as you are suggesting

 

[zbhargrove]

People really must have not watch the progression of Fried and the adjustments he made this year. His health is the worry... he was the stuff to be pretty good and had already shown that. I don't know how you compare Newk and Fried to Wisler and Blair... never the same upside and never close

 

[CrazyTrain]

Lol Sean Newcomb had 1.7 bWAR last year. You're saying that you'd be willing to deal 5 more years of 1.7 WAR (or conceivably better) plus Fried (0.7 bWAR) for one year of Madison Bumgarner's 2.4 bWAR (or conceivably worse given aging curves)...

It'd just be a bad trade idea dude.

We have differing opinions on the value of Fried and Newcomb going forward. That’s all this boils down to.

Let me ask it this way... do you think we could’ve gotten more for Wisler after 2015 or 2016?

 

[clvclv]

And what will a 30 year old Bumgarner be worth if he struggles? Or gets hurt for the third consecutive year? The answer is nothing because he’ll be a free agent at years end.

And to the opposite, Fried/Newk’s value will skyrocket if they play well. And you’re right. Who can say? We aren’t fortune tellers. Which is exactly why you don’t trade players of their caliber who are under control for an aging, declining pitcher with only one year of control. It’s to mitigate that type of risk. See my previous reply, windows closing before they should.

I'm not particularly interested in MadBum (at least if you give up much value for him), but part of the argument in trading at least SOME of these arms now is that their value likely has nowhere to go but down. AA and his guys aren't fortune tellers either, but I hope they're much better evaluators than anyone here. While Bumgarner may not be a great example of someone to target, there are several other players out there worth overpaying for - some of whom are TOR type arms.

The value charts are TOOLS - great tools for small- and mid-market teams - but still only tools. For all the numbers can tell you, they're simply not a guarantee of anything. They should be consulted as a guide, with the decision-makers also exercising some level of "educated guessing" based on other factors. Is a TOR starter an absolute necessity when it comes to winning the World Series? Obviously not. However, do you honestly think ANYBODY associated with the Red Sox in any way (Manager/Coaches, players, front office personnel, or fans) gives two *hits about whether someone is still beating the drum about the fact that they "overpaid" for Chris Sale, or that they have a chart that clearly shows they did?

The charts are great (and no one will argue that they're right the vast majority of the time), but they show you things that assume ALL these prospects will stay healthy AND reach the ceilings they project. Common sense tells you that that's simply not going to happen. If you're in AA's position, you talk with the numbers guys to develop "your list" - the players who COULD be the best ones if everything works out. You then go to your scouts, Coaches, and player development people with that list and say "we're keeping X number of guys on this list - give me the ones you'd keep in order" AND the reasons why and you go from there.

Does anyone honestly think anybody in Boston would be interested if the White Sox called and said "hey, we'll give you back all the guys you sent us - plus a couple B prospects - if we can have Sale back"?

The folks that came up with much of the "new math" are extremely intelligent people, but they wouldn't either today. The constantly referred to "smartest" organizations in baseball (Tampa Bay, Houston, the Dodgers, etc.) definitely have something in common - they'll be watching the parade in Boston tomorrow on TV with the rest of us.

 

[Oklahomabrave]

People really must have not watch the progression of Fried and the adjustments he made this year. His health is the worry... he was the stuff to be pretty good and had already shown that. I don't know how you compare Newk and Fried to Wisler and Blair... never the same upside and never close

I’m a big fan of fried. I don’t think he’s an ace or anything but I’d bet on him becoming a #3 before Newk and think he could be valuable in the BP if that fails.

 

[BeanieAntics]

We have differing opinions on the value of Fried and Newcomb going forward. That’s all this boils down to.

Let me ask it this way... do you think we could’ve gotten more for Wisler after 2015 or 2016?

That is a completely separate question. What Wisler did or Blair did or Glavine did or whoever did is completely independent from what Newcomb and Wisler will do or have done. They have given us far more reason for optimism than Wisler or Blair ever did. You seem like the type of person who bails out on a prospect as soon as they show any signs of struggle at all. Newcomb had a half year of success and a half year of struggle. When Fried has been up and healthy in 2018, he's been successful. I'm really not getting why you are so bearish on them.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I'm not particularly interested in MadBum (at least if you give up much value for him), but part of the argument in trading at least SOME of these arms now is that their value likely has nowhere to go but down. AA and his guys aren't fortune tellers either, but I hope they're much better evaluators than anyone here. While Bumgarner may not be a great example of someone to target, there are several other players out there worth overpaying for - some of whom are TOR type arms.

The value charts are TOOLS - great tools for small- and mid-market teams - but still only tools. For all the numbers can tell you, they're simply not a guarantee of anything. They should be consulted as a guide, with the decision-makers also exercising some level of "educated guessing" based on other factors. Is a TOR starter an absolute necessity when it comes to winning the World Series? Obviously not. However, do you honestly think ANYBODY associated with the Red Sox in any way (Manager/Coaches, players, front office personnel, or fans) gives two *hits about whether someone is still beating the drum about the fact that they "overpaid" for Chris Sale, or that they have a chart that clearly shows they did?

The charts are great (and no one will argue that they're right the vast majority of the time), but they show you things that assume ALL these prospects will stay healthy AND reach the ceilings they project. Common sense tells you that that's simply not going to happen. If you're in AA's position, you talk with the numbers guys to develop "your list" - the players who COULD be the best ones if everything works out. You then go to your scouts, Coaches, and player development people with that list and say "we're keeping X number of guys on this list - give me the ones you'd keep in order" AND the reasons why and you go from there.

Does anyone honestly think anybody in Boston would be interested if the White Sox called and said "hey, we'll give you back all the guys you sent us - plus a couple B prospects - if we can have Sale back"?

The folks that came up with much of the "new math" are extremely intelligent people, but they wouldn't either today. The constantly referred to "smartest" organizations in baseball (Tampa Bay, Houston, the Dodgers, etc.) definitely have something in common - they'll be watching the parade in Boston tomorrow on TV with the rest of us.

This simply isn't true. The prospect valuation charts and trade value equations bake in the risk associated with prospects. When Acuna was the top prospect in baseball, he was worth ~80 dollars in surplus value. That is assuming an average WAR outcome of ~16 over his first 6 seasons along with the likelihood of him producing less than that or more than that. Now that we have more information on Acuna, his trade value is much higher than it was when he was a prospect so there is more certainty.

And they hit the Chris Sale trade pretty close to the mark. The Red Sox really didn't overpay. They paid about ~140 million in surplus value for 3 years of a 6 win pitcher on a 39 million dollar contract... that is about right.

 

[clvclv]

This simply isn't true. The prospect valuation charts and trade value equations bake in the risk associated with prospects. When Acuna was the top prospect in baseball, he was worth ~80 dollars in surplus value. That is assuming an average WAR outcome of ~16 over his first 6 seasons along with the likelihood of him producing less than that or more than that. Now that we have more information on Acuna, his trade value is much higher than it was when he was a prospect so there is more certainty.

And they hit the Chris Sale trade pretty close to the mark. The Red Sox really didn't overpay. They paid about ~140 million in surplus value for 3 years of a 6 win pitcher on a 39 million dollar contract... that is about right.

"Assuming" is a terribly BIG word.

As for Sale, go back to the time of the trade and find someone who didn't call it an overpay.

 

[Hulavol]

Why do you care where he got it from?
So freakin’ what?
God Damn man... you have issues.

 

[Carp]

Honestly, I think I'd rather take Greinke and roughly half his salary than trade for MadBum. Mostly because MadBum is likely to be overvalued in terms of acquisition cost. With Greinke, at least it is only money we'd be losing if he gets hurt or declines. But, I think he continues to pitch well into his late 30's.