2018 Offseason And Targets

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nsacpi said:
In 2018 Fried put up a FIP of 3.56 in AAA in 66 innings and a FIP of 3.67 in the majors in 34 innings.

Combine that with the strong spring he is having and I would say I like the under on the 3.80 FIP projection that Steamer has for him.
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He walked 5.82 per 9 as a starter last season. Flat fastball. Long history of not being able to stay healthy.

His poor control is consistent with his minor league history as he's never in his life had an extended sample with a BB rate under 4.
 
Southcack77 said:
He walked 5.82 per 9 as a starter last season. Flat fastball. Long history of not being able to stay healthy.

His poor control is consistent with his minor league history as he's never in his life had an extended sample with a BB rate under 4.
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The walks are not good but not the whole story. FIP looks at the rest of the story. I think there is a similar risk with Fried as with Newk that his control does not improve. I'd still take either over Gio this season. Both were better than Gio last year (as measured by FIP) and given the ages I like both Fried and Newk over Gio this year. I also like Wright, Wilson and Touki over Gio this year (as measured by FIP). If anyone wants to do a bet (based on FIP in the majors) where they take Gio over any of these guys I'm game.
 
Tapate50 said:
Someone threw out 4 War earlier at the high end of his "expected range" of performance... I'd say that's a few days on horseback from being realistic. Especially with a late start to the season.
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He's secretly been getting ready on his own like Keuchel - he'll be ready on Opening Day.
 
nsacpi said:
The walks are not good but not the whole story. FIP looks at the rest of the story. I think there is a similar risk with Fried as with Newk that his control does not improve. I'd still take either over Gio this season. Both were better than Gio last year (as measured by FIP) and given the ages I like both Fried and Newk over Gio this year. I also like Wright, Wilson and Touki over Gio this year (as measured by FIP). If anyone wants to do a bet (based on FIP in the majors) where they take Gio over any of these guys I'm game.
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Not sure where to land on Newk, Fried, and Touki just yet, but I'm getting the feeling that Wright has sensed his opportunity and doesn't plan to let it loose - assuming AA and Snitker make the obvious choice and put him in the mix now, I'm not sure he comes out of the rotation unless he's traded (even if/when Folty and Gausman are ready).
 
nsacpi said:
I'm not big on spring training stats, but I do keep an eye on them and the strikeout to walk numbers of our starters this spring (except for Newk) are encouraging.

Teheran 1 BB 16K
Fried 5 and 16
Wright 2 and 16
Touki 2 and 17
Wilson 2 and 13
Newk 10 and 7
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lol that's awful
 
nsacpi said:
I'm not big on spring training stats, but I do keep an eye on them and the strikeout to walk numbers of our starters this spring (except for Newk) are encouraging.

Teheran 1 BB 16K
Fried 5 and 16
Wright 2 and 16
Touki 2 and 17
Wilson 2 and 13
Newk 10 and 7
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Too early to call this a Post Chuckie bump?
 
CrazyTrain said:
I've never seen such a group of dumbasses that just bring up random **** from so long ago to try and bait people into ruining the discussion.

****ing losers.
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Perhaps you shouldn't say stupid things with such unflappable conviction?

Maybe you should realize you aren't half as smart as you think you are, despite your impressive career as a sale engineer?
 
nsacpi said:
The walks are not good but not the whole story. FIP looks at the rest of the story. I think there is a similar risk with Fried as with Newk that his control does not improve. I'd still take either over Gio this season. Both were better than Gio last year (as measured by FIP) and given the ages I like both Fried and Newk over Gio this year. I also like Wright, Wilson and Touki over Gio this year (as measured by FIP). If anyone wants to do a bet (based on FIP in the majors) where they take Gio over any of these guys I'm game.
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If Gio were anywhere other than Yankee Stadium in the AL East, I'd consider it.
 
Newk on the mound today vs Jays

Strange lineup

Swanson
Camargo(LF)
Acuna(CF)
McCann
Culberson(2B)
Pache(RF)
Wilkins(!B)
Floriman(3B)
Newk
 
Southcack77 said:
He walked 5.82 per 9 as a starter last season. Flat fastball. Long history of not being able to stay healthy.

His poor control is consistent with his minor league history as he's never in his life had an extended sample with a BB rate under 4.
Click to expand...

Wait...are folks who think Gio is better than Fried basing this on command? Perhaps some folks need to look up Gio’s command stats?

Fried’s problem is going to be the flat FA. If he has addressed that by either getting a higher spin rate (unlikely), or switching to a SI in order to take advantage of his low spin rate (no idea how easy it is to make that switch), then he is a decent bet to outperform Gio.

I keep pointing out Fried’s FA for the same reason I point out every pitchers’ stuff...it’s the best predictor of success. Unfortunately, we can’t see that data until they’ve already made it to the MLB level.
 
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