2018 Offseason And Targets

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Enscheff said:
Rivera was an exception because he invented an elite pitch (cutter), and had 80 grade control.

Chapman (probably) is an exception because he throws harder than any pitcher in the history of the game. However, Chapman is the same age as Kimbrel, so it's a little premature to call Chapman an exception.

What unique quality does Kimbrel possess other than being a fan favorite?
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His pure stuff is better than 99% of relievers. Use Wagner, Percival, or Hoffman in replace of them if you wish. The injury risk is obviously inherent for any pitcher, but other than that, the is little reason to expect major decline within the next 4 years. Velocity is still elite, even if it's not quite as good as years past.
 
AA pretty much just shut down any rumors of Kimbrel coming to Atlanta, nice. Never made much sense.
 
nsacpi said:
fortunately there are less costly alternatives available
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Does A-Jax and Ynoa net Dietrich? Wright/Riley/A-Jax/Ynoa for Realmuto and Dietrich leaves you with...

Folty/Gausman/Newk/Julio/Touki

Gohara/Soroka/Fried/Wilson/Allard

Anderson/Wentz/Weigel/Muller/Beck

Davidson/De La Cruz/Sanchez/Tarnok
 
Carp said:
His pure stuff is better than 99% of relievers. Use Wagner, Percival, or Hoffman in replace of them if you wish. The injury risk is obviously inherent for any pitcher, but other than that, the is little reason to expect major decline within the next 4 years. Velocity is still elite, even if it's not quite as good as years past.
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He may or may not be elite still... obviously very good, but I'm not thinking you followed his second half and playoff appearances. All the signals are there are that he is declining which makes sense given his age. He will be very good for a while still, but you can get basically his production for a quarter to half the price. He's not the same Kimbrel... its pretty obvious watching him lately.
 
Heyward said:
That's true but considering Bora$ is his agent, i doubt the Braves sign him for the money he ends up getting.
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The projections right now that I trust have him at 3/30. At that price point, I'd be comfortable I think. I said my max, coming into the offseason, would be 3/36. But given that a lot of teams could use him and that Boras is his agent, it is possible that he receives some sort of overpay.
 
BeanieAntics said:
The projections right now that I trust have him at 3/30. At that price point, I'd be comfortable I think. I said my max, coming into the offseason, would be 3/36. But given that a lot of teams could use him and that Boras is his agent, it is possible that he receives some sort of overpay.
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We do have to address a variety of needs this off-season. I would target someone on a lower salary such as Walker, Lamb, Dietrich, Solarte or Cabrera.
 
zbhargrove said:
He may or may not be elite still... obviously very good, but I'm not thinking you followed his second half and playoff appearances. All the signals are there are that he is declining which makes sense given his age. He will be very good for a while still, but you can get basically his production for a quarter to half the price. He's not the same Kimbrel... its pretty obvious watching him lately.
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A half a season (really 1 month) is sign of decline? Main difference this season were walks were up, but otherwise still dominant. He still has the lowest BAA in the history if baseball with at least 400 innings pitched, and still posting historic K rates. His velocity was down this year, but that's after a year in which it was at an all time high.

I have no issue with people not wanting to throw 15-20 million per for a reliever while also giving up a pick. I do have an issue with people acting like he's isn't still the elite of the elite in terms of closers.
 
Carp said:
A half a season (really 1 month) is sign of decline? Main difference this season were walks were up, but otherwise still dominant. He still has the lowest BAA in the history if baseball with at least 400 innings pitched, and still posting historic K rates. His velocity was down this year, but that's after a year in which it was at an all time high.

I have no issue with people not wanting to throw 15-20 million per for a reliever while also giving up a pick. I do have an issue with people acting like he's isn't still the elite of the elite in terms of closers.
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I'm as big a "homer" as exists, and am one of the select few who wouldn't mind spending on the back-end, but I'm not sure I even want any piece of Kimbrel given the fact he comes with the QO attached. Even if he was willing to give you a hometown discount to finish things up (let's dream that he'd take the same deal Britton or others are projected to get to come "home"), do you really want to give up a pick to get him considering our International penalties are about to kick in?

I realize they're not Craig, but is he really going to be THAT much better than Britton, Familia, Allen, Herrera, Miller, or Ottavino over the next 3 years?

(Especially when we've got all the SPs that could become really good back-end pieces AND Minter who likely just needs to be shown some faith.)
 
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Super said:
seems to me it would be more wise to use the trade chips for a cOF and cash on one of the FA catchers. I like the cOF trade options a lot more than I like the cOF FA options, and there are more FA options at catcher than there are trade candidates at catcher.
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This is my opinion also. Didn't Brantley and Markakis have similar years last year? I was hoping for a lineup upgrade there.
 
Jaw said:
This is my opinion also. Didn't Brantley and Markakis have similar years last year? I was hoping for a lineup upgrade there.
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the better question is how the project going forward...this question applies to alternatives such as Peralta
 
Jaw said:
This is my opinion also. Didn't Brantley and Markakis have similar years last year? I was hoping for a lineup upgrade there.
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124 wrc+ to 114. 3.5 war to 2.6 Also note neck completely reverted to projections in the 2nd half.
 
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Carp said:
A half a season (really 1 month) is sign of decline? Main difference this season were walks were up, but otherwise still dominant. He still has the lowest BAA in the history if baseball with at least 400 innings pitched, and still posting historic K rates. His velocity was down this year, but that's after a year in which it was at an all time high.

I have no issue with people not wanting to throw 15-20 million per for a reliever while also giving up a pick. I do have an issue with people acting like he's isn't still the elite of the elite in terms of closers.
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He's around a typical age showing all the tell tale signs... I love Kimbrel as much as anyone but I'm not blind.
 
nsacpi said:
the better question is how the project going forward...this question applies to alternatives such as Peralta
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Peralta is exactly who I have hoped for since you suggested him a while back. I think we would be better off spending prospects for Peralta and money for Grandal, instead of money for Brantley and prospects for Realmuto.
 
The last 3 of the 4 seasons for Kimbrel reveal a guy with declining control. Only 1 season, 2017, revealed a guy that was still elite and the #1 reliever in the game.

Control would be what I worry about. I think he'd still be great but not as great.
 
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