2018 Offseason And Targets

Status
Not open for further replies.
Carp said:
No you can't really. Unless you're paying a huge prospect haul for Bauer or Snydergaard. Also, you are forgetting Bradley in the deal.
Click to expand...

This is a confusing response.

Not sure how Bauer and Syndergaard are comparable to Zack Greinke? Or how they are 3 WAR guys.

I think they are on dramatically higher tiers. They're both about 27 and they both have very recent 6 WAR seasons and are both under control.

I'd be much more in favor, personally, of getting someone like those too.
 
Southcack77 said:
I can get J.A. Happ or Charlie Morton, projected 3 WAR guys, for significantly less than 23m for probably a two year commitment. something like 16m rather than 14m. But in the ball park.

But in reality, I'm probably not going to be shopping in this bin at all.
Click to expand...

I think you'll be surprised at what Happ will command and it will most certainly be over 2 years. He's currently the best pitcher on the FA market and Eovaldi (even though he's younger) just got 4/67.5. Happ has consistently been better and more healthy than Eovaldi however.

And Morton has 1 season (last year) with a brWAR over 2. And only 1 other season with a brWAR over 1. Before 2018, he actually had negative career brWAR. Even if you go fWAR, he only has 2 seasons over 2 WAR. Any projection system projecting 3 wins for him should be completely scrapped.
 
Southcack77 said:
This is a confusing response.

Not sure how Bauer and Syndergaard are comparable to Zack Greinke? Or how they are 3 WAR guys.

I think they are on dramatically higher tiers. They're both about 27 and they both have very recent 6 WAR seasons and are both under control.

I'd be much more in favor, personally, of getting someone like those too.
Click to expand...

Youy do realize Greinke was a 4.8 brWAR last season don't you? I don't think you fully giving Greinke the credit he's due.


That's fine if you'd rather go down that road for one of the elite pitchers. I however, would rather not pay a King's ransom in prospects.
 
FG just released the ZiPs projections for the Braves:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/

It's mostly projections we all expect to see (4+ win seasons from Freeman, JD, Acuna and Albies), and a few comments that echo exactly what I've been saying...

"even if no individual pitcher has better than a coin flip’s chance of being a star in 2019, the Braves’ enviable young depth can help them compensate for their lack of a true staff ace. The Braves are playing Plinko on The Price is Right, only Drew Carey gave them a hundred of those little disks. ZiPS actually projects the 11th-to-15th best starting pitchers in the organization (Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Wes Parsons, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Muller) to not be that far from league average, which is a filthy, disgusting horde of pitching to have if the projections prove true."

As a quick reminder, the Braves used 13 different SPs last year, and 35 pitchers in total. Anyone who thinks AA won't utilize this depth of arms hasn't been paying attention. And before someone chimes in with the tired "they need a front line starter" cliche, take a look at how pitching staffs of contenders and non-contenders were put together before blabbering.
 
Carp said:
I think you'll be surprised at what Happ will command and it will most certainly be over 2 years. He's currently the best pitcher on the FA market and Eovaldi (even though he's younger) just got 4/67.5. Happ has consistently been better and more healthy than Eovaldi however.

And Morton has 1 season (last year) with a brWAR over 2. And only 1 other season with a brWAR over 1. Before 2018, he actually had negative career brWAR. Even if you go fWAR, he only has 2 seasons over 2 WAR. Any projection system projecting 3 wins for him should be completely scrapped.
Click to expand...

FG projects him at 3.1. It's funny seeing you describe back to back 3+ win season as "only has 2 seasons over 2 WAR" though haha.

Guess you better tell them to scrap their projection system so you can get to work writing a new one. I mean, your spit balling projection system outlined in your post seems legit, so I'd suggest running with it.
 
Last edited:
Enscheff said:
FG just released the ZiPs projections for the Braves:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/

It's mostly projections we all expect to see (4+ win seasons from Freeman, JD, Acuna and Albies), and a few comments that echo exactly what I've been saying...

"even if no individual pitcher has better than a coin flip’s chance of being a star in 2019, the Braves’ enviable young depth can help them compensate for their lack of a true staff ace. The Braves are playing Plinko on The Price is Right, only Drew Carey gave them a hundred of those little disks. ZiPS actually projects the 11th-to-15th best starting pitchers in the organization (Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Wes Parsons, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Muller) to not be that far from league average, which is a filthy, disgusting horde of pitching to have if the projections prove true."

As a quick reminder, the Braves used 13 different SPs last year, and 35 pitchers in total. Anyone who thinks AA won't utilize this depth of arms hasn't been paying attention. And before someone chimes in with the tired "they need a front line starter" cliche, take a look at how pitching staffs of contenders and non-contenders were put together before blabbering.
Click to expand...

So Coppy and Hart were correct to load the organization with pitching instead of positional prospects.:YDS:

thethe vindicated?

:Gasp:
 
Ronald Rump said:
So Coppy and Hart were correct to load the organization with pitching instead of positional prospects.:YDS:

thethe vindicated?

:Gasp:
Click to expand...

no, the fact that each team usually needs so many pitchers means teams shouldn't load up on good pitching. or something.
that logic was always bad.
 
TheRunningAgent said:
It’s possible they think the pen is not all that bad if.....Viz returns to form. AJ improves from his rookie season. Teheran goes to the pen. Another one of the kids goes to the pen. I mean, Gohara could be nasty in the pen. Maybe pick up one more veteran on the cheap.
Click to expand...

I think Teheran would retire before going to the pen.
 
Southcack77 said:
You're advocating making Greinke the highest paid Brave for the next three seasons to save a few prospects. That doesn't make any sense to me.

23m is a large chunk of the payroll and you are spending it on possibly upgrading the back end of the rotation, which is the least defensible place of allocating the Braves resources right now.

I value the next three seasons much more highly than anything that comes after them, because they are the peak contention years. For the window to continue past the point where the Braves are fairly compensating their current young players, they will have to produce more young players who give them somewhat comparable surplus value. It could happen, but I'd wouldn't say it's the most likely outcome.

I can't justify blowing that much money on someone I don't see as having almost any chance of significantly upgrading the Braves contention chances in the short term.
Click to expand...

You do realize that Zack would've had the second highest WAR in the rotation last year and that both his fangraph projections are higher than even Folty for next season?

You don't think that improves our contention chances and that he's a BOR pitcher? He'd be our #1 for crying out loud. Honestly, if we could get he and Peralta in a deal and add a pen arm, this off season would about as good as it could've been.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top