2018 Offseason And Targets

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Braves1976 said:
I am surprised Bowman got this right (must be straight from his sources): "Nicholas Castellanos' bat is intriguing, but Ender Inciarte's tremendous range is not enough to offset the defensive inefficiencies of Castellanos, who ranks as the game's worst outfielder per Statcast™'s Outs Above Average metric."

I thought it rather funny some that thought my Jose Martinez suggestion was bad were fine with Nick Castellanos, lol. And that doesn't even factor in that he'd also cost more in a trade and in payroll.

That said, I am not interested in Sonny Gray.
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I'm interested in Gray. I think he's a good bounce back candidate and could help provide some stability to our rotation. I'd be especially interested if we could unload Teheran somewhere.

A rotation of Folty, Gaus, Gray, Newk, Soroka/Touki/Fried/Wright/Etc. isn't bad. Then when Gray becomes a FA next year you can plug another youngster into the rotation.

That being said, I'm only interested at an extremely low price in terms on talent. One year of a middle of the rotation starter coming off a down season and who is going to make a fair bit isn't something I back the truck up for.
 
Southcack77 said:
I don't really understand how you mention him in the same breath as Kluber or even Bumgarner.

I guess he's a reasonable buy-low candidate for backing into 3 WAR if you look at his FIP and then apply the National League discount.

But anyone thinking that addresses the front end of the rotation should stay the hell out of Vegas. It's a possible upgrade on Teheran. That's the way I'd look at it. Only worth doing is the price is negligible.
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The thought process for any team looking to acquire Gray is that his good seasons in 2014, 2015, and 2017 were due to BABIPs of .255-.269. His poor seasons in 2016 and 2018 were due to BABIPs of .319-.326. His xwOBAs from 2015-2018 were .289, .333, .314, and .317. These are the marks of a SP who is league average or slightly better, and actually compare favorably to Gausman's .308, .317, .346, and .331 values from the last 4 seasons.

I have no doubt many teams project Gray's BABIP to regress to somewhere around .300 (his career rate is .284), and under that scenario he should be expected to produce 2-3 wins over ~30 starts. That production for $9M has a surplus value in the range of $10M.

However, that is not the "front line pitcher" folks seem to be clamoring for the Braves to acquire the last...several...years.

If the Braves are insistent on adding a pitcher for 2 years or less, and won't pay for someone like Happ or Morton, the only option left is Gray.
 
I follow the braves but not the league.

Is Jesse winkler good? I keep looking for guys nobody is talking about based on aa track record.

Reds want to win. They need pitching. Creativity rules. They seem to have position prospects and some money. Would they move him to get some quality mlb ready pitching?
 
If my choices are Gray, Teheran or Sanchez I am going for the latter as I don't think he'll cost much to re-sign (probably cheaper for us than if we wait and he ends up in Washington). I wasn't high on the Sanchez signing last year but after seeing how he remade himself with that cutter and slow and slower off speed stuff (change-up, curve) I became a believer. So rather than trade someone for Gray I rather just re-sign him and trade Teheran. This way Sanchez cannot end up in Washington too.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I follow the braves but not the league.

Is Jesse winkler good? I keep looking for guys nobody is talking about based on aa track record.

Reds want to win. They need pitching. Creativity rules. They seem to have position prospects and some money. Would they move him to get some quality mlb ready pitching?
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I for one like Winker. He is a good hitter. He did well against us last year and I picked him up in fantasy and he got injured so I kind of lost track of him if he even ever returned to health last season.
 
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Braves1976 said:
If my choices are Gray, Teheran or Sanchez I am going for the latter as I don't think he'll cost much to re-sign (probably cheaper for us than if we wait and he ends up in Washington). I wasn't high on the Sanchez signing last year but after seeing how he remade himself with that cutter and slow and slower off speed stuff (change-up, curve) I became a believer. So rather than trade someone for Gray I rather just re-sign him and trade Teheran. This way Sanchez cannot end up in Washington too.
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I agree if that's my only options but in a perfect world I'd like to acquire a starting pitcher better than all three of them to slot between Folty and KG.
 
Ozzie's Chainz said:
I agree if that's my only options but in a perfect world I'd like to acquire a starting pitcher better than all three of them to slot between Folty and KG.
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sure but outside of a trade with the indians who else might work? i'd be good with getting Alex Wood back if cheap enough.
 
Enscheff said:
The thought process for any team looking to acquire Gray is that his good seasons in 2014, 2015, and 2017 were due to BABIPs of .255-.269. His poor seasons in 2016 and 2018 were due to BABIPs of .319-.326. His xwOBAs from 2015-2018 were .289, .333, .314, and .317. These are the marks of a SP who is league average or slightly better, and actually compare favorably to Gausman's .308, .317, .346, and .331 values from the last 4 seasons.

I have no doubt many teams project Gray's BABIP to regress to somewhere around .300 (his career rate is .284), and under that scenario he should be expected to produce 2-3 wins over ~30 starts. That production for $9M has a surplus value in the range of $10M.

However, that is not the "front line pitcher" folks seem to be clamoring for the Braves to acquire the last...several...years.

If the Braves are insistent on adding a pitcher for 2 years or less, and won't pay for someone like Happ or Morton, the only option left is Gray.
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Gray isn't the only option, just the only one we're really linked to. Porcello is an option. So is Jake Odorizzi. Gio Gonzalez might be available on a 2 year deal as well.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I follow the braves but not the league.

Is Jesse winkler good? I keep looking for guys nobody is talking about based on aa track record.

Reds want to win. They need pitching. Creativity rules. They seem to have position prospects and some money. Would they move him to get some quality mlb ready pitching?
Click to expand...

Possibility...similar value to Kepler
 
Braves1976 said:
If my choices are Gray, Teheran or Sanchez I am going for the latter as I don't think he'll cost much to re-sign (probably cheaper for us than if we wait and he ends up in Washington). I wasn't high on the Sanchez signing last year but after seeing how he remade himself with that cutter and slow and slower off speed stuff (change-up, curve) I became a believer. So rather than trade someone for Gray I rather just re-sign him and trade Teheran. This way Sanchez cannot end up in Washington too.
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Agree on Sanchez. I would do a two-step

1) Sign Sanchez
2) Trade Teheran and Fried for someone like Kepler, Pederson or Winkler

rotation is Folty, Gausman, Newk, Sanchez and one of Gohara/Soroka/Touki
 
Ozzie's Chainz said:
Yep, they have to make room for Harper, we'd be dumb not to at least inquire. I'd even take Puig on his one-year deal and Wood.
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I actually like Puig better than some of the other names, both in terms of what I expect the cost to be in a trade and offensively. I just have doubts we'll add a player like him to our clubhouse but personally I'd be okay with it if he comes cheap enough in a trade.
 
Braves1976 said:
I actually like Puig better than some of the other names, both in terms of what I expect the cost to be in a trade and offensively. I just have doubts we'll add a player like him to our clubhouse but personally I'd be okay with it if he comes cheap enough in a trade.
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McCann will keep him in check! :)
 
Braves1976 said:
If my choices are Gray, Teheran or Sanchez I am going for the latter as I don't think he'll cost much to re-sign (probably cheaper for us than if we wait and he ends up in Washington). I wasn't high on the Sanchez signing last year but after seeing how he remade himself with that cutter and slow and slower off speed stuff (change-up, curve) I became a believer. So rather than trade someone for Gray I rather just re-sign him and trade Teheran. This way Sanchez cannot end up in Washington too.
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And fill the role of Ass't PC if he fails to sustain last year's stats or suffers a season ending injury. He was great helping other pitchers on staff who wanted his help last year.
 
Braves1976 said:
I actually like Puig better than some of the other names, both in terms of what I expect the cost to be in a trade and offensively. I just have doubts we'll add a player like him to our clubhouse but personally I'd be okay with it if he comes cheap enough in a trade.
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On one hand I think he and Ronald would be good friends and it could work but on the other hand I'm afraid the first time Puig pops up and doesn't run while breaking his bat over his leg that Mac would go crazy about The Braves Way and body slam Puig.
 
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