2018 Offseason And Targets

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Craig Mish
Craig Mish
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The daily Realmuto : Sources : Astros are not offering Tucker. Braves still in. Rays, Reds, Padres would all need to up the ante to get serious. Could go into 2019 with J.T. on MIA. Would not surprise me if some other team got involved.
% updated.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Interested to see the terms. I didn't see him as a guy worth spending big on. More of a bounceback contract kind of guy.
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Passan said multi year deal, he had a lot of 2 year deals in hand, said maybe Cards could have upped the AAV for 2 years or gone to 3.
 
The Murphy signing is one of the better deals for the club I've seen this off-season. The Donaldson signing was the other good value, low risk deal I've seen so far.
 
nsacpi said:
The Murphy signing is one of the better deals for the club I've seen this off-season. The Donaldson signing was the other good value, low risk deal I've seen so far.
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He can hit, not very good defensively though. Dodgers should win that division again relatively easy though.
 
Enscheff said:
I really don't understand how anyone can draw this conclusion. Of all the teams in MLB, the Braves are widely considered one of the teams most set up for long term (5+ years) success.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-who-will-win-the-next-five-world-series/

This "half-assed approach" already got the Braves an NL East title. This "half-assed approach" has the Braves projected to win 82 games in 2019, and they haven't addressed CoF at all. This "half-assed approach" has the Braves set up with almost zero long term payroll commitments and a young core everyone fully expects to get better and better.

There are very few plausible scenarios where a team at the very beginning of a window of contention can trade away a 4-5 win player and still be competitive in the near future.

Freeman will play out his contract as a Brave, and unless he signs a series of short extensions, will be allowed to walk following the 2021 season. They may consider trading him as a rental in 2021 if they are out of the race, but I find that scenario fairly unlikely.
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You're such a Posie
 
Horsehide Harry said:
First: Kiley.

Second: there's a difference in short term, limited opportunity and a sustained (5-7 year window of success). If everything goes right could the Braves win a WS in 2019? Sure. Is it likely? No. If most things go right could they win the Division in 2019? Sure. Is it likely? Not at this point - even if they fill a cOF spot with a 5 win guy, where does that leave them -87 wins? Is that good enough? probably not.

But let's assume 2019 is successful in some form. Does Acuna go to a 8 Win guy for 2020? Probably not. But even if he does, that gets negated somewhat by Freeman regressing from 5 to 3, while eating payroll space.

I'm all for keeping Freeman IF the Braves will spend the cash to bring in what needs to be brought in to fill the gaps that arise year to year along with the ebb and flow of young talent coming, going, growing and declining. They aren't doing that with payroll which narrows the margin so much that any kind of sustained era of excellence seems unlikely to me.
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Winning a world series any year is unlikely for any team no matter what.... its pretty clear the Braves are setup for a long window of possible success
 
Horsehide Harry said:
You guys (and gals) can whistle past the graveyard all you want. But, whether you want to acknowledge it or not, the Braves appear to be on a very tight budget, one tight enough where there is a real good chance that they starve the fire for want of fuel.

I see your Astros comparison. The difference is that they took their payroll down to $29M in 2013, they shamelessly tanked, they played the International market hard, and they grew most of their team in house until they started needing the final pieces to make it happen and keep it going. The Astro's year end 2018 payroll was $187M and will likely be as much or more this year. Thats 6 plus X payroll growth in 5 years. They used their free cash to add as needed, when needed and keep and pay developing stars. When the Astros got ready to really compete, they had few holes and a young team with a core that could grow together (cheaply) as they got better. When they failed the one year after the one good year, they still were a young team with money to spend and developing stars.

The Braves aren't really doing it that way. The Braves 40 man has varied over the last 5 years from a low of $107.5M to a high of $136M. Everything about this offseason signals moderate payroll growth at best, meaning band aids and bailing wire, not true fixes.

There's two ways to build a sustainably good franchise: 1. Commit to a rebuild, take it down to the metal and smartly rebuild from the ground up spending your cash wisely along the way (the Astros model) and 2. Rebuild on the fly, spend massive cash where needed to get over the hump and stay there (the Yankees and Red Sox model).

The Braves are trying this half assed toe in the water pray for rain strategy which won't work for any kind of sustained success.

I was hopeful that with the new park, the Braves would start spending like they should which is a top 10 type franchise. But, that's not happening.

That's why I say that if the Braves fail in 2019, short of pretty visible and fixable circumstances, they need to be open on moving Freeman, Inciarte and others because of the windage of the situation - when the young guys get good enough to be helpful enough you can't have the monied veterans eating up payroll in a career decline phase.
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If we trade Freeman, he can't talk Bryce into coming here... silly Harry
 
I think Harry can sometimes let the idea of perfection become the enemy of the good. We don't have a perfect situation, but its a pretty damn good one.
 
It is unrealistic to expect a team with a $120M+ payroll to consistently build a 90-95 game winning roster. That’s what the Dodgers and Yankees do, not the Braves.

At $120M+ the Braves should be aiming to consistently win 85-90 games and be in the hunt for the playoffs every single season. They can do that by focusing on maintaining long term success, and that’s exactly where they are right now...the rebuild worked.

In the seasons they end up being a bit worse and/or miss the playoffs, they should be looking to deal short term pieces at the deadline for long term value. In seasons where they are solidly in the hunt the the playoffs they should be adding at the deadline.
 
Enscheff said:
It is unrealistic to expect a team with a $120M+ payroll to consistently build a 90-95 game winning roster. That’s what the Dodgers and Yankees do, not the Braves.

At $120M+ the Braves should be aiming to consistently win 85-90 games and be in the hunt for the playoffs every single season. They can do that by focusing on maintaining long term success, and that’s exactly where they are right now...the rebuild worked.

In the seasons they end up being a bit worse and/or miss the playoffs, they should be looking to deal short term pieces at the deadline for long term value. In seasons where they are solidly in the hunt the the playoffs they should be adding at the deadline.
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Correct! Which is why we shouldn’t expect any long term deals being offered unless it’s for our own players. We are going to have to pay Acuña a lot and better be ready for it. So, the point is, we actually could do virtually nothing and compete for many years to come based on our system. Adding a short term piece here and there will be necessary. A lineup of Acuna, Albies, Freddie, Riley, Contreras, Pache, Inciarte and Swanson for many years is not a bad way to go. And the pitching we have is more than we need to carry us through. The future is bright. We don’t need to deal all of these guys away for 2 years of a couple of players, IMO.
 
Adam Ottavino (33 years old, 2.0 WAR)
Jeurys Familia (29, 1.8) -- Signed 3-year deal with NYM (12/14).
Joakim Soria (35, 1.8)
David Robertson (34, 1.5)
Craig Kimbrel (31, 1.5)
Jesse Chavez (35, 1.2) -- Signed 2-year deal with TEX (11/30).
Oliver Perez (37, 1.1)
Luis Avilan (29, 0.9)
Tony Sipp (35, 0.9)
Zach Duke (36, 0.9)
Brad Brach (33, 0.7)
Nick Vincent (32, 0.7)
Joe Kelly (31, 0.7) -- Agreed to 3-year deal with LAD (12/13).
Jordan Lyles (28, 0.6) -- Signed 1-year deal with PIT (12/17).
Sergio Romo (36, 0.5)
Jake Diekman (32, 0.5)
Justin Wilson (31, 0.5)
Tyler Clippard (34, 0.5)
Shawn Kelley (35, 0.5)
Xavier Cedeno (32, 0.5)
Andrew Miller (34, 0.4)
Kelvin Herrera (29, 0.4)
Greg Holland (33, 0.3)
Tony Barnette (35, 0.3)
Aaron Loup (31, 0.3)
Adam Warren (31, 0.3)
John Axford (36, 0.2)
Bud Norris (34, 0.2)
Ryan Madson (38, 0.2)
Dan Jennings (31, 0.2)
Jeanmar Gomez (31, 0.2)
Alex Wilson (32, 0.2)
Zach Britton (31, 0.1)
Santiago Casilla (38, 0.1)
Carson Smith (29, 0.1)
Cory Gearrin (32, 0.1)
Ricardo Rodriguez (26, 0.1)
Cody Allen (30, 0.0)
Jorge De La Rosa (38, 0.0)
Justin Hancock (28, 0.0)
Fernando Salas (34, 0.0)
Zach McAllister (31, 0.0)
Blake Parker (31, 0.0)
Zac Rosscup (31, 0.0) -- Signed 1-year deal with SEA (12/20).
Blake Wood (33, 0.0)
Daniel Hudson (32, -0.1)
Jerry Blevins (35, -0.1)
Brad Boxberger (30, -0.1)
Matt Bush (32, -0.1) -- Signed MiLB deal with TEX (12/17).
Adrian Sampson (27, -0.1)
Allen Webster (28, -0.1)
Zac Curtis (26, -0.1) -- Signed MiLB deal with TEX (12/17).
Hunter Strickland (30, -0.2)
Matt Belisle (39, -0.2)
AJ Ramos (32, -0.2)
Hector Santiago (31, -0.2)
Jim Johnson (36, -0.3)
Randall Delgado (29, -0.3)
Boone Logan (34, -0.3)
Peter Moylan (40, -0.4)
Tim Collins (29, -0.4)
Jason Adam (27, -0.4) -- Signed MiLB deal with KC (12/17).
Junichi Tazawa (33, -0.5)
Brandon Maurer (28, -0.8)
Blaine Boyer (37, -0.9)
Josh Tomlin (34, -1.3)
David Phelps (32, N/A) -- Didn't appear in MLB in 2018.
Joaquin Benoit (41, N/A) -- Didn't appear in MLB in 2018.
Jandel Gustave (26, N/A) -- Didn't appear in MLB in 2018.
Andres Machado (25, N/A) -- Didn't appear in MLB in 2018.
Samir Duenez (22, N/A) -- Signed MiLB deal with KC (12/17)


Theres talk that the Yankees and Phillies are in on Zack Britton and the Red Sox possibly replacing Kimbrel with Ottavino. I wonder what the market for Craig Kimbrel will look like if everybody else is getting the other relievers.
 
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