2018 Offseason And Targets

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One guy reports the Rays are out of the running the other says they are in the top four still lol. I don't know what / who to believe anymore but if it comes down to us and the Padres we'd probably lose out on JTR to them with our luck!

This is obviously more posturing to create the appearance of high interest in hopes that someone, likely the Braves, will panic and up their offer. None of these reports are to be taken as anything more until an actual announcement is made. Someone may yet panic, but it hasn't happened so far.
 
I understand that, but I don’t agree that Minter was as good as Kimbrel last year.

Minter isn't Kimbrel, but I do think that people are overrating Kimbrel based on who he was 5 years ago. Minter's FIP was right in line with Kimbrel's FIP from 3 out of the last 4 years.
 
Will it ever be over?

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Kimbrel wouldn't be replacing Venters, he would be replacing the current worst BP arm, who is very likely about a 0.

At this point, I would be surprised if Kimbrel gets Jansen money (5/80+), but he should be able to beat the AAV record of Wade Davis ($17.3M for 3 years). I would venture to guess he will settle for something in the range of 3/54, or maybe a similar 2 or 4 year deal...options, all that good stuff.

Even though Kimbrel won't be projected to produce that much WAR over those seasons, large market teams can afford expensive BP arms because they provide a lot of value in the postseason when they can be leveraged more due to all the days off.

I just don't envision the Braves giving Kimbrel $18M per year, or even $15M per year. Something really odd would have to happen to get Kimbrel back in Atlanta...like he isn't signed in mid-February and the value is just too great to pass up. We are seeing teams like the Padres pop up in Machado/Harper rumors because their markets are so slow, so who knows what the new FA expectations should be.
 
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