2018: The Year Of The Venezuelan Trout

chipchildress said:
so basically, he invalidates that entire ****ing stat. it's total bull**** to suggest that all balls in play are equal.

but basically with babip the claim is that the more hits you get, the luckier you are. you can just use batting average or anything else to demonstrate the same thing. but in reality, we've seen players who have abilities to effect how hard balls are hit and where and things like that. so again, babip is totally worthless. it might apply to 95% of the players out there but it's based on a principle that's a lie.

and again, ted williams hit .400 and this amazing babip stat is there to tell us that he probably won't hit .400 next year. lol. hopefully our new front office can use these amazing stats. game changer!!!
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You aren't grasping a pretty simple concept here.

1. Maddux being better at generating weak contact doesn't invalidate a stat. While the numbers aren't there I'm sure you'd find that compared to other pitchers Maddux had a lower HR/FB rate and less line drives, 2 key stats in improving your BABIP as a hitter. There are players who're better at controlling stats like BABIP, if you read most other people's posts, they're acknowledging it. You're being obstinate for some reason and making counterpoints on arguments that no one is having with you.

2. That's not the claim in BABIP. The claim is that there is a luck factor in a year to year given. And 100% for sure in small sample sizes. What BABIP is there to say is when a player is getting luckier than other times. Or to quote Bull Durham "Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It's 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium."

3. And did Ted Williams hit .400 the next year? I mean you're making weak points here because Williams never hit .400 again. Infact he only hit above 370 one time after that. You keep citing Williams but you fail to see that you're making the counter point.

I mean maybe I'm wrong, maybe you're just being a troll to get people to argue with you. But you're not building even a remotely solid case against BABIP aside from just grandpa yelling about people being on your damned lawn.
 
chipchildress said:
do people really have a superior handle on these numbers around here or are do they just happen to be aware of the latest made up stat and enjoy flaunting what they perceive to be an important data point?
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Compared to the previous FO regime? I'd say quite a few people around here have had a better handle of the numbers than they did. Otherwise you wouldn't have seen all the dumb decisions they made. To me it's clear they didn't have a firm grasp on sabermetrics and the value of handling service time correctly. Two things that most other FO's do and AA has quickly implemented with the team.
 
That was literally like my grand dad fussing about computers because who needed that when he had books. And what are you going to do when power is out. He died thinking computers were going to go away someday.
 
Ronald is starting in left field today.

13-31 (.419 average)

1 HR, 4 SB

BB%: 10.5%

K%: 18.4%

Of players with 30 or more AB, Ronald leads the majors in average.
 
thewupk said:
Compared to the previous FO regime? I'd say quite a few people around here have had a better handle of the numbers than they did. Otherwise you wouldn't have seen all the dumb decisions they made. To me it's clear they didn't have a firm grasp on sabermetrics and the value of handling service time correctly. Two things that most other FO's do and AA has quickly implemented with the team.
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I've also long suspected that they have fallen behind in terms of information given to managers when it comes to managing the bullpen and pinch hitters on the bench to optimize matchup advantages. We'll get a better idea this season. It is an interesting controlled experiment. Same manager. Many of the same relievers. Different information inputs.

One thing I already like. They got Moylan to be a ROOGY. I'v always thought having a ROOGY made more sense than having a LOOGY in the pen, given the predominance of right-handed hitters.
 
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SJ24 said:
Ronald is starting in left field today.

13-31 (.419 average)

1 HR, 4 SB

BB%: 10.5%

K%: 18.4%

Of players with 30 or more AB, Ronald leads the majors in average.
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I think K% is going to be the key stat for him this year. He's going to get his walks and when he puts the ball in play I'm certain he's going to be doing damage. Will just be a matter of how often he puts the ball in play.
 
Mike Trout as a rookie:

BB%: 10.5%

K%: 21.8%

I mean, the parallels are starting to freak me out.
 
SJ24 said:
Ronald is starting in left field today.

13-31 (.419 average)

1 HR, 4 SB

BB%: 10.5%

K%: 18.4%

Of players with 30 or more AB, Ronald leads the majors in average.
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You should have included BA in our bet. You might not have to leave the board in 6 months if you did.
 
nsacpi said:
I've also long suspected that they have fallen behind in terms of information given to managers when it comes to managing the bullpen and pinch hitters on the bench to optimize matchup advantages. We'll get a better idea this season. It is an interesting controlled experiment. Same manager. Many of the same relievers. Different information inputs.

One thing I already like. They got Moylan to be a ROOGY. I'v always thought having a ROOGY made more sense than having a LOOGY in the pen, given the predominance of right-handed hitters.
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Considering Snit was exposed to zero advanced data under the old FO, it is a fact the Braves had fallen behind in that aspect of the game.

It makes it hard to judge Snit harshly when he wasn't given the tools to do his job properly. It was like sending a kid to dynamics class without a calculator.
 
Enscheff said:
Considering Snit was exposed to zero advanced data under the old FO, it is a fact the Braves had fallen behind in that aspect of the game.

It makes it hard to judge Snit harshly when he wasn't given the tools to do his job properly. It was like sending a kid to dynamics class without a calculator.
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He did keep playing bono last year. I think I can judge him harshly for that.
 
thewupk said:
Compared to the previous FO regime? I'd say quite a few people around here have had a better handle of the numbers than they did. Otherwise you wouldn't have seen all the dumb decisions they made. To me it's clear they didn't have a firm grasp on sabermetrics and the value of handling service time correctly. Two things that most other FO's do and AA has quickly implemented with the team.
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I believe they had access to the data and that they just assumed they knew better. Hart was a major disappointment to me on service time considerations. I thought that his history of pre-FA extensions indicated a respect for inexpensive service time. I was incorrect.
 
Jaw said:
I believe they had access to the data and that they just assumed they knew better. Hart was a major disappointment to me on service time considerations. I thought that his history of pre-FA extensions indicated a respect for inexpensive service time. I was incorrect.
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Yeah. I was in favor of Hart coming on board because of his work with that young Indians team in the 90's. I mean you saw some of that or an attempt with the Braves young guys at the end of the Wren era. Freeman, Kimbrel, Simmons, and Julio all signed extensions. They tried with Heyward but did buy out the rest of his arby seasons. But the mismanagement of service time the last couple of years has been beyond absurd. It's almost like they mocked the idea of it just to be different. As you said. They thought they knew better than the rest when it was the complete opposite.
 
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thewupk said:
Yeah. I was in favor of Hart coming on board because of his work with that young Indians team in the 90's. I mean you saw some of that or an attempt with the Braves young guys at the end of the Wren era. Freeman, Kimbrel, Simmons, and Julio all signed extensions. They tried with Heyward but did buy out the rest of his arby seasons. But the mismanagement of service time the last couple of years has been beyond absurd. It's almost like they mocked the idea of it just to be different. As you said. They thought they knew better than the rest when it was the complete opposite.
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I'm still not convinced that "they thought they knew better" so much as they simply didn't think it mattered since they had likely decided to pursue attempts to buy out pre-arb and arb years in the form of early extensions. Could it have been done differently? Sure. There's no doubt it could be a big mistake, but we're not there just yet.

If it ends up costing them an extra year of Albies down the line (or Swanson rebounds and it hurts you there), it obviously backfired. If AA is able to get them signed to reasonable cost-certain deals (or even long-term ones that cover a couple years of free-agency or more), how much did it really wind up hurting?
 
clvclv said:
I'm still not convinced that "they thought they knew better" so much as they simply didn't think it mattered since they had likely decided to pursue attempts to buy out pre-arb and arb years in the form of early extensions. Could it have been done differently? Sure. There's no doubt it could be a big mistake, but we're not there just yet.

If it ends up costing them an extra year of Albies down the line (or Swanson rebounds and it hurts you there), it obviously backfired. If AA is able to get them signed to reasonable cost-certain deals (or even long-term ones that cover a couple years of free-agency or more), how much did it really wind up hurting?
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It would depend on the contract itself. But in Swansons, if he signs long term, his 2023 salary is probably going to be significantly higher now than if we had waited to call him up. Contracts for pre-FA guys usually still escalate at the same level had players normally going through arbitration. Meaning minimal salaries in pre-arb years and then escalating salaries in arb years followed by them earning their biggest annual salary in what would have been FA years. Now this isn't always the case but it's a good rule to follow.

Is that a big of a deal? Who knows right now how 2023 would shape up. But a few million certainly looks to be a big issue in 2018 which is what a lot of us have been saying. It's just a sub optimal move. The Hart/Coppy era made sub optimal move after another.
 
Enscheff said:
Considering Snit was exposed to zero advanced data under the old FO, it is a fact the Braves had fallen behind in that aspect of the game.

It makes it hard to judge Snit harshly when he wasn't given the tools to do his job properly. It was like sending a kid to dynamics class without a calculator.
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I don't think one needs access to advanced stats to manage a bullpen properly or replace Kemp in LF when enjoying a late lead.

Snitker strikes me as a guy when asked about a spread sheet would reply, "Of course I spread my sheet when I make my bed."
 
AA said in the podcast that Snit is humble as hell and the players love him. I feel like the one year extension was a proving ground to see what he could apply from the info he is given.
 
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