2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION

Enscheff said:
Archer has been "developing a change" ever since he hit the MLB level, and he has always thrown it 8%-11% of the time...just like this year.

His CH has had roughly the same movement and velocity delta this year that it's always had.

Archer's change is what it is at this point. Or do you think the Braves are experts at teaching 30 year olds new change ups?
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Why do you think we got Venters?
 
Enscheff said:
It was suggested the Rays wanted a package containing a young catcher and a controllable OFer. The Brewers have/had the OFers, but now that the Rays got Pham, that need for an OFer may not still exist.

The Braves have several catcher prospects the Rays might covet.

I doubt the Rays will be interested in Gohara. They cold have gotten him for Smyly a few months ago, but instead chose to acquire a sure thing low ceiling OFer in Mallex.

I'm guessing an Archer package contains Fried, a catching prospect, and 1 more good pitching prospect we all concede has a non-zero chance of becoming what Archer is now...think Touki, Wright, Anderson.
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I really hope if that is the package, that the prospect going back is Anderson. I wanna keep dreaming on Touki and Wright as I think they both have ToR upside at this point. Plus Touki always has that high leverage reliever roll to fall back on if starting doesn't work out. So I'd be down with Fried, Anderson, Catcher.
 
Enscheff said:
That exact package probably isn't enough.

The hope is more quantity can be added.
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Yeah that would be fine. I'd be cool with a close to MLB starter or two with limited upside like Fried, one more decent starter prospect, a catcher, and then some lower level guys who aren't far along in their development but have upside. The JCE's or Ynoa's of the world
 
Archer's inability to post ERAs below 4 three years in a row and keep the ball in the ballpark are more relevant than his K/9. He can't keep the ball in the park, doesn't matter what division.
 
Enscheff said:
Archer has been "developing a change" ever since he hit the MLB level, and he has always thrown it 8%-11% of the time...just like this year.

His CH has had roughly the same movement and velocity delta this year that it's always had.

Archer's change is what it is at this point. Or do you think the Braves are experts at teaching 30 year olds new change ups?
Click to expand...

I do like how you made sure to put the upper limit of the range 11% which is this year... it may not be a huge increase, but most of his career (2015 and prior) he was at or below 7%... 2016 was a bit of an outlier 11.3... likely the first year he was experimenting with it a bit more. Went back to 8% last year and is back to 11 this year. Most of his career at 7 and under... increasing to 11 is somewhat significant.

As the article suggests though... he's trying to make adjustments to left handers since his slider is not succeeding as much for some reason... he isn't throwing more changeups to righties because he doesn't need to. Instead, those increased change-up percentages are all going to lefties, which makes the increase a bit more significant (twice as many changeups to lefties compared with 2015). This year, lefties are batting .227 against his change-up with only one extra base hit. Pretty small sample size, but for someone who likes to dig into the data, I'm surprised you're trying to keep it as simple as possible. Will this help him improve, will he develop it further, I don't know... but to say there's no difference is not being honest. He's clearly making an effort to increase his changeup usage against lefties and there has been some statistical success with the sample size caveat.
 
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BeanieAntics said:
Yeah that would be fine. I'd be cool with a close to MLB starter or two with limited upside like Fried, one more decent starter prospect, a catcher, and then some lower level guys who aren't far along in their development but have upside. The JCE's or Ynoa's of the world
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Fried, Allard, Cumberland, Peterson, Anderson seems like a Rays kind of package to me. I don't love Archer but I would enthusiastically accept that deal.
 
Enscheff said:
Archer has been "developing a change" ever since he hit the MLB level, and he has always thrown it 8%-11% of the time...just like this year.

His CH has had roughly the same movement and velocity delta this year that it's always had.

Archer's change is what it is at this point. Or do you think the Braves are experts at teaching 30 year olds new change ups?
Click to expand...

And yeah... Chucky Hernandez can do anything!
 
atl717 said:
Archer's inability to post ERAs below 4 three years in a row and keep the ball in the ballpark are more relevant than his K/9. He can't keep the ball in the park, doesn't matter what division.
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:facepalm:

Archer's career HR/9 is 0.99.

MLB average HR/9 is typically around 1.2.

Archer pitches a lot of games against very powerful lineups, yet has still produced a HR/9 below league average.

Are you sure you know what you're talking about?
 
Enscheff said:
Archer is pretty much the best case scenario for a 2 pitch pitcher. Those 2 pitches are plus or plus-plus, and he has above average control.

What happens to a 2 pitch pitcher when half of his arsenal degrades? I'm not sure, but I'm guessing Archer will not age well. He hasn't exactly shown the ability to add pitches, which he will need to be able to do when his velocity declines.

He is a very risky target, and a definite "win now" move. The Rays would probably be wise to cash out on him sooner rather than later.
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That article from Tampa Tribune suggests that he has developed his changeup somewhat and his slider might be an issue of locating it more than anything else. Quotes Tampa as saying the movement on slider has not declined. You should read it if you did not catch it before. I linked it somewhere. I'm sure folks would appreciate your comments.

Braves would definitely be investing him his ability to get in playoffs now and next year. The final two years of the deal could be big wins if he maintains and aren't likely to hurt too badly if he declines to a back end type. Keeps costs down
 
Enscheff said:
Archer has been "developing a change" ever since he hit the MLB level, and he has always thrown it 8%-11% of the time...just like this year.

His CH has had roughly the same movement and velocity delta this year that it's always had.

Archer's change is what it is at this point. Or do you think the Braves are experts at teaching 30 year olds new change ups?
Click to expand...

never mind...though more data would be interested if we acquire him.

I do not completely understand the fan graph pitch value ratings, but it seems like his change has been positive this season as opposed to negative previously. A sample size issue perhaps?
 
atl717 said:
Archer's inability to post ERAs below 4 three years in a row and keep the ball in the ballpark are more relevant than his K/9. He can't keep the ball in the park, doesn't matter what division.
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What a dumb comment... his HR/9 inning is below average... and his FIP/xFIP have been WAY below his ERA the past 3 years and the WAR reflects that. Compare that with Julio, who's ERA is somehow always like 2 runs lower than his FIP/xFIP
 
Jaw said:
Fried, Allard, Cumberland, Peterson, Anderson seems like a Rays kind of package to me. I don't love Archer but I would enthusiastically accept that deal.
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I could see that as being reasonable. Seems like it doesn't quite sting enough as a Braves fan though, so it might still be a little light on value.

Keep in mind the Braves will have to win a bidding war against several other contending teams with good farm systems.
 
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Nightengale tweeted that we have expressed interest in Harvey... first time I've ever heard us associated with him. If he's cheap, I'd give it a shot, he's had decent results with the Reds thus far. If we are going with risks, I'd rather go for Wheeler as it looks like he's really turned a corner.
 
atl717 said:
Archer's inability to post ERAs below 4 three years in a row and keep the ball in the ballpark are more relevant than his K/9. He can't keep the ball in the park, doesn't matter what division.
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You don't think playing in a division with BOS/NYY, who have collectively hit 311 home runs and scored over 1100 runs ALREADY, could be affecting his stats at all? You don't think playing in hitter friendly parks like BOS, NY, BAL, or TOR (to a lesser extent this year) affects his stats any? His home park is pretty pitcher friendly, but almost a third of his games are played against gorilla offenses in hitter friendly parks.
 
I agree with whoever it was a few pages back that said this is one of the best sports days of the year. It's a little like Christmas Eve for kids, except Santa may not even come.
 
zbhargrove said:
Nightengale tweeted that we have expressed interest in Harvey... first time I've ever heard us associated with him. If he's cheap, I'd give it a shot, he's had decent results with the Reds thus far. If we are going with risks, I'd rather go for Wheeler as it looks like he's really turned a corner.
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If we go for a SP, Wheeler would be the guy that I want. I think the cost would be very very reasonable and he has pitched very well recently. He also has that pedigree which suggests higher upside if he truly has gotten past his injury concerns. I wouldn't pay much for him, but if he can be acquired cheaply, I'm all for it.
 
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