2019 Trade Deadline Thread:

Southcack77 said:
Is the context for success in wOBA scaled metrics the same for relievers as it would be with starters?

I do note that relievers tend to be more heavily represented at the top of those leaderboards. Wonder if you should expect more from them due to their being able to put out max effort.
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Coming out of the BP and going all out plus being used in spots where the pitcher tends to have a platoon advantage is a huge advantage.

It's a rough breakdown, but I tend to rate SPs as:

80 0.260
70 0.280
60 0.300
50 0.320
40 0.340
30 0.360
20 0.380

and BP arms as:

80 0.230
70 0.260
60 0.290
50 0.320
40 0.340
30 0.360
20 0.380

Those grades for SPs were eyeballed by setting the minimum IP to 150, and the BP grades eyeballed by looking at "everyone else".

Those grades are by no means mathematically sound (each "grade" is defined as a standard deviation from the mean), and could probably be vetted a bit, but I think they are at least in the realm of reasonable.

The hard line between SP/BP at 150 IP is rather arbitrary, and doesn't fully capture the contributions of guys like Miller who would shut down an opposing lineup for more than 1 inning vs a LOOGY who faced a single batter at a time. Those additive contributions are better captured by a tool like fWAR, the scouting scale equivalents described here:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/

So when I say a SP is a "Grade 60 #3" I could be talking about his ~.300 xwOBA, or I could be talking about his ~3 fWAR production. Those values don't always line up because a guy like Keuchel carries an xwOBA that's a grade ~60, but eats so many IP he produces fWAR like a borderline #2/#3. As always, these labels carry a bit more nuance than is typically fleshed out in a message board post.
 
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Braves are a top 5-7 offense that has performed like a top 2 offense over the last 30 days. This despite the projected CF and LF (Camargo) basically doing nothing.

Braves have been a middle of the pack MLB rotation for the season despite having #1, #2, and #5 starters all pitch so poorly they had to be demoted.

Braves have had a slightly better than average MLB bullpen despite basically none of their projected opening day relievers performing well at all. (Did Jackson start on the active roster or at Gwinnett? I guess he's performed well)

It's been a really odd year.



.
 
Individual-1 said:
Both are clearly in need of some pen help. Even Mets. I'm glad Minter appears to be improving.
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Yea, the Phillies added Salas today and "Per Scott Lauber of Philly.com (Twitter link), right-hander Tommy Hunter will throw 20-25 pitches in a rehab appearance at Double-A tomorrow, while David Robertson is playing catch today and could throw a bullpen session Wednesday."

That said, Biddle is getting lit up so much that only a team rebuilding could justify adding him to their MLB roster. Seattle knows that and is likely thinking they can now slip him through waivers and just outright him.
 
My question is how many relief pitchers will the Braves add and from what tier?

The top four are pretty clearly Will Smith, Kirby Yates, Brad Hand, and Ken Giles. Smith is the only looming FA. Hand is the only one with two more years of control, and the second year is a team option.

I would guess that Yates and Hand will be the most expensive ones to acquire in terms of prospects. Smith is probably having the best season.

Smith and Yates are improving on 2018 breakouts.

Giles is having his best season, but has some injury concern this year, and he's pretty clearly the one of the four that you would look at as the most questionable. He's tended to bounce between very good and ok in even/odd year increments. This is his best good (odd) year so far.

Smith destroys lefties.

Yates is destroying RHs.

Hand is a little more balanced in slightly less destroying both.

Giles has struggled vs RHs according to wOBA (.309), but with ridiculously high BABIP (.609), and FIP scores of .180 and .97 and I don't know quite what to make of that.


What are the Braves willing to do here? What would they cost to get? Would they even get one of these? Would they get two?


Getting Smith and Yates would be sexy pairing of dominant splits, but hard to see Alex doing that the way he's played his hands so far.
 
Southcack77 said:
My question is how many relief pitchers will the Braves add and from what tier?

The top four are pretty clearly Will Smith, Kirby Yates, Brad Hand, and Ken Giles. Smith is the only looming FA. Hand is the only one with two more years of control, and the second year is a team option.

I would guess that Yates and Hand will be the most expensive ones to acquire in terms of prospects. Smith is probably having the best season.

Smith and Yates are improving on 2018 breakouts.

Giles is having his best season, but has some injury concern this year, and he's pretty clearly the one of the four that you would look at as the most questionable. He's tended to bounce between very good and ok in even/odd year increments. This is his best good (odd) year so far.

Smith destroys lefties.

Yates is destroying RHs.

Hand is a little more balanced in slightly less destroying both.

Giles has struggled vs RHs according to wOBA (.309), but with ridiculously high BABIP (.609), and FIP scores of .180 and .97 and I don't know quite what to make of that.


What are the Braves willing to do here? What would they cost to get? Would they even get one of these? Would they get two?


Getting Smith and Yates would be sexy pairing of dominant splits, but hard to see Alex doing that the way he's played his hands so far.
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I think AA will continue to try to be a value shopper. This doesn't necessarily mean shopping in a cheaper aisle.

In terms of what it takes: due to the extra control, I would think Yates, Giles and Hand would cost someone just below the guys that are on the Top 100 lists. So it would be someone like Ynoa, Vodnik or Weigel.

Due to being a rental Will Smith would cost someone a little less valuable. Such as Wentz, Davidson or Allard. Of course some people will disagree with me rating Ynoa, Vodnik and Weigel above those three. And I think it is also possible that different front offices would have a different view as to how to rank those prospects.

In the next shopping aisle there are guys like Shane Greene. Not quite as good as the other four you have mentioned. But with control through 2020. Players like that will probably cost the same as Will Smith.

Finally there are the lower tier rentals like Diekman. They won't cost much.

And there is an interesting case in Ian Kennedy, who has a starting pitcher's salary this year and next, but has transitioned to the pen and done very well this year. We could make a deal with the Royals if they are willing to take on some of that salary.
 
nsacpi said:
I think AA will continue to try to be a value shopper. This doesn't necessarily mean shopping in a cheaper aisle.

In terms of what it takes: due to the extra control, I would think Yates, Giles and Hand would cost someone just below the guys that are on the Top 100 lists. So it would be someone like Ynoa, Vodnik or Weigel.

Due to being a rental Will Smith would cost someone a little less valuable. Such as Wentz, Davidson or Allard. Of course some people will disagree with me rating Ynoa, Vodnik and Weigel above those three. And I think it is also possible that different front offices would have a different view as to how to rank those prospects.

In the next shopping aisle there are guys like Shane Greene. Not quite as good as the other four you have mentioned. But with control through 2020. Players like that will probably cost the same as Will Smith.

Finally there are the lower tier rentals like Diekman. They won't cost much.

And there is an interesting case in Ian Kennedy, who has a starting pitcher's salary this year and next, but has transitioned to the pen and done very well this year. We could make a deal with the Royals if they are willing to take on some of that salary.
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I had Shane Greene in my relievers project as a name to look at.

He's a guy who is getting close to elite results so far, but is pretty clearly not an elite guy.

.217 wOBA vs .285 xwOBA.

25.4 / 7.9 K/BB%.

.181 BABIP.


Basically a reverse split profile as he's very shaky vs RHs. Not a high K rate and living off a .095 BABIP.

......

Against my better judgment, I was forced to conclude that Ian Kennedy is probably getting unlucky (.259 xwOBA and .365 babip) and producing at a pretty solid clip out of the pen. K rates near 30% against both sides of the plate with good walk rates. Lefties seem to have an extra helping of luck.

If you consider that the Royals might send him away for free for taking on a chunk of his money, he does makes sense for somebody with payroll room. I think I would be less enthused about having whatever pro-rated amount of his salary would be next season though. Feels like maybe a bigger market acquisition to me.
 
Southcack77 said:
I had Shane Greene in my relievers project as a name to look at.

He's a guy who is getting close to elite results so far, but is pretty clearly not an elite guy.

.217 wOBA vs .285 xwOBA.

25.4 / 7.9 K/BB%.

.181 BABIP.


Basically a reverse split profile as he's very shaky vs RHs. Not a high K rate and living off a .095 BABIP.

......

Against my better judgment, I was forced to conclude that Ian Kennedy is probably getting unlucky (.259 xwOBA and .365 babip) and producing at a pretty solid clip out of the pen. K rates near 30% against both sides of the plate with good walk rates. Lefties seem to have an extra helping of luck.

If you consider that the Royals might send him away for free for taking on a chunk of his money, he does makes sense for somebody with payroll room. I think I would be less enthused about having whatever pro-rated amount of his salary would be next season though. Feels like maybe a bigger market acquisition to me.
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I think I agree with you if you are saying not to touch Greene and go after Kennedy. Greene is a ballon ready to pop and the tigers are going to ask a lot for him. Take the money with Ian and run.
 
nsacpi said:
I think AA will continue to try to be a value shopper. This doesn't necessarily mean shopping in a cheaper aisle.

In terms of what it takes: due to the extra control, I would think Yates, Giles and Hand would cost someone just below the guys that are on the Top 100 lists. So it would be someone like Ynoa, Vodnik or Weigel.

Due to being a rental Will Smith would cost someone a little less valuable. Such as Wentz, Davidson or Allard. Of course some people will disagree with me rating Ynoa, Vodnik and Weigel above those three. And I think it is also possible that different front offices would have a different view as to how to rank those prospects.

In the next shopping aisle there are guys like Shane Greene. Not quite as good as the other four you have mentioned. But with control through 2020. Players like that will probably cost the same as Will Smith.

Finally there are the lower tier rentals like Diekman. They won't cost much.

And there is an interesting case in Ian Kennedy, who has a starting pitcher's salary this year and next, but has transitioned to the pen and done very well this year. We could make a deal with the Royals if they are willing to take on some of that salary.
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We already know Smith will cost 2-3 non-elite guys based on the recent returns for top end rental BP arms. A quick look at the recent deals should give folks an idea of what he will cost.

I think the Braves should get him.
 
Enscheff has earned more respect from me than he already had. He continually said that JD was OK and would be coming around shortly. He was right, again. If he says get Get Smith if it's only 2-3 non-elite guys, go with it!!!
Thanks Enscheff, you made up my mind for me.
 
Enscheff said:
We already know Smith will cost 2-3 non-elite guys based on the recent returns for top end rental BP arms. A quick look at the recent deals should give folks an idea of what he will cost.

I think the Braves should get him.
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Smith makes the most sense to me.

Giles is probably the next cheapest.

No sense getting exited about Hand. Do not see that price being reasonable, though off the top of my head I do not remember what the Indians paid for him.

I’m interested to see if the Padres will sell high on Yates even if they don’t get a big package
 
Southcack77 said:
Smith makes the most sense to me.

Giles is probably the next cheapest.

No sense getting exited about Hand. Do not see that price being reasonable, though off the top of my head I do not remember what the Indians paid for him.

I’m interested to see if the Padres will sell high on Yates even if they don’t get a big package
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Wouldn’t they just deal direct with Toronto if they want Stroman?
 
Enscheff said:
We already know Smith will cost 2-3 non-elite guys based on the recent returns for top end rental BP arms. A quick look at the recent deals should give folks an idea of what he will cost.

I think the Braves should get him.
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just remember the Giants GM is a smart cookie...he will try hard hard to get one premium prospect for Smith rather than 2-3 lester ones...it wont be like trading with the Orioles last summer...that's why I'm not too optimistic about landing Smith
 
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