2020 Field

I’m literally on their website

But that still isn’t predicting a victory.

Have you ever gambled before?
 
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2016 was not a fluke. Dems have a lot of excess votes in California, New York, Massachusetts and other states that go wasted under the Electoral College system.
 
I'll be interested to see what the popular vote looks like this year. Thjnk we are in for a surprise.
 
It should be abolished for many reasons but mostly that it was put in place for slave states


Also, still on betfaur website

Jo are laying the same odds as Kanye

Michelle Obama favored by almost 100% better chance than either of those 2 lol
 
he seems to have nationally nailed that pretty well on the prediction (also, like then, why i don't care about national polls since we have a stupid system)

his prediction:
Popular vote

Hillary Clinton
48.5%
Donald Trump
44.9%


actual results:

Hillary Clinton
48.2%
Donald Trump
46.1%
 
goldfly said:
he seems to have nationally nailed that pretty well on the prediction (also, like then, why i don't care about national polls since we have a stupid system)

his prediction:
Popular vote

Hillary Clinton
48.5%
Donald Trump
44.9%


actual results:

Hillary Clinton
48.2%
Donald Trump
46.1%
Click to expand...

close election plus surprises concentrated in tipping point states ==> black swan event
 
goldfly said:
he seems to have nationally nailed that pretty well on the prediction (also, like then, why i don't care about national polls since we have a stupid system)

his prediction:
Popular vote

Hillary Clinton
48.5%
Donald Trump
44.9%


actual results:

Hillary Clinton
48.2%
Donald Trump
46.1%
Click to expand...

Electoral college prediction:
Hillary 302.2
Trump 235

Actual:
Hillary 221
Trump 304
 
With the disconnect between the national vote and the Electoral College you really have to focus on the tipping point states to get a sense of how things are playing out.

In order of most blue to most red here is how i see those states

NH
Michigan
Nevada
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Ohio
Georgia
Iowa
Texas

If this ordering is correct, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida are the decisive states. Win two of the three and you win the electoral college.

RCP average currently has credibly accused creepy joe up 4.2% in PA, 3.7% in FL and 3.5 in WI.

The national polls have him up 7.1. So the structural advantage in the Electoral College is about 3.4% (7.1 minus 3.7) for the GOP.
 
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betfair has some interesting bets you can lay on the presidential election

or as fraud freedom boy says "predictions"
 
Eg7AyICXYAI7OZJ


i do like to look at the crosstabs of the national polls for an idea of how the various demos are going...this one (from the Economist/YouGov) fits my priors pretty closely...the only surprise for me is how very poorly chosen one does pretty well among the upper middle income group (compared to the poor and rich)

the "other" category is interesting to me...mostly asians, who tend for various reasons to be conservative...this is a natural constituency for the GOP (many of whom voted for very poorly chosen one in 2016) but have now basically concluded he is an embarrassment
 
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cajunrevenge said:
13% blacks for Trump would be amazing him. Would be more than a 50% gain in that demographic.
Click to expand...

Had a business owner tell me all his AA warehouse workers wouldn't tell you they'd vote for Trump, but they likely will. He said they have more money in their pocket right now than ever before and they attribute the Orange dude in the WH for it.
 
A lot of people think like that. That's why Trump is all in on the short term economy and doesnt care about long term damage. The way he sees it the worse the country is after him the better he looks.
 
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