2023 Misc Braves Talk

zbhargrove said:
Your argument has been attacked over and over. You’re one of a very few on that side. Your only reason is basically “management is smarter than you guys.”
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Lol that hasn’t been my argument at all. So the problem is your reading comprehension then. I’m glad that’s been made clear.
 
Enscheff said:
You should probably go back and look at the actual conversations. Since you obviously couldn't comprehend what was being said back then, maybe I should break down the discussion?

We were talking about guys like Stroman, Snell, EdRod, and Lorenzen, with Lorenzen being the lowest end option. We were not talking about "trash heap" guys, and I quite literally listed the xwOBA of every single pitcher of interest to show who should be considered.

If AA/Snit are managing to rest the current SPs, it stands to reason they would have also managed the load of Lorenzen once he got to Atlanta. Therefor, logic dictates Lorenzen likely wouldn't be cooked if he were wearing a Braves uniform.

So yeah, derptard, work on your reading comprehension and then work on applying that knowledge to further logical thought.
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You litertally just said in the post I quoted:

"The idea being he was a good back end option available for cheap that would prevent the Braves from using those AAAA SPs, and could move to the BP if everything worked out perfectly."

You most certainly did not view Lorenzen as a "back-end starter." You consistently viewed him as a better option than Morton and Elder. A difference maker is the term I think you used.

Lorenzen was already at his innings ceiling when he was traded to Philly. No manner of load management was likely to alter his results since the trade. He is a career journeyman middle reliever/starter for a reason and many people on here pointed out he was likely to regress the more innings he pitched. But I guess his xwOBA over 18 starts in his age 31 season holds more weight than the previous 8 seasons combined....
 
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thewupk said:
It was clear when the Padres/Cubs decided not to sell that there wasn't going to be any real SPs available.

Braves losing a top SP is going to hurt the Braves' playoff chances and Lorenzen wouldn't really fix that. I feel Lorezen was already cooked with those innings baked in. A few days here and there wasn't going to change that.
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Don't be a derptard.
 
Lorenzen would’ve likely been cooked either way. The Phils just cooked him on high from the start. I think even cooking him on low would’ve led to him being overdone since he was already pretty cooked…it just would’ve taken longer.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a guy I think would’ve been a legit difference maker in the Braves price range. Who knows what happened there. Maybe he’s just weirdly happy in Detroit
 
Enscheff said:
Bolded line is definitely true, but I do think AA should have pushed harder to be the back-up plan for EdRod. Are the Braves on his no-trade list? No idea, but it seemed to be a East/West coast thing, so I think maybe not.

Completely disagree about Lorenzen being cooked at the time of the trade. He was pitching well for the Phils until the no-hitter, and hasn't been the same since. I am 99.9% certain the Braves would not have allowed that to happen, and he would have been rested just like the current SPs are being rested. We will never know for sure, but my opinion is the Phils are 100% responsible for cooking Lorenzen.
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I agree that adding Erod would have been good. You and I don’t have any idea how hard AA pushed for him or what Detroit was requiring from us so that’s a silly complaint based on feelings derp. Don’t think Lorenzen really would have moved the playoff needle at all without multiple SP injuries and then we are screwed anyways.
 
zbhargrove said:
In the second half he has a 88 wRC+ so clearly what I said is correct. In the second half he hasn’t been good.
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He went basically hit less in a 3 week stretch in July after the all star break. He’s been great since then. Did the time share only impact him those 3 weeks?
 
chop2chip said:
He went basically hit less in a 3 week stretch in July after the all star break. He’s been great since then. Did the time share only impact him those 3 weeks?
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Well given the tiny sample since August 1st... I clearly was talking about first half vs. second half and then you decided to use a cherry picked time range that has only 85 plate appearances. The OPS and wRC+ is certainly buoyed by good amount of walks. He's still batting .239 in that time frame. Again, it's pretty obvious he plays a lot better when he's playing regularly. First half he played much more than TDA and put up a 166 wRC+ and the second half an 88 wRC+ when he's played 50/50 if not less.
 
zbhargrove said:
Well given the tiny sample since August 1st... I clearly was talking about first half vs. second half and then you decided to use a cherry picked time range that has only 85 plate appearances. The OPS and wRC+ is certainly buoyed by good amount of walks. He's still batting .239 in that time frame. Again, it's pretty obvious he plays a lot better when he's playing regularly. First half he played much more than TDA and put up a 166 wRC+ and the second half an 88 wRC+ when he's played 50/50 if not less.
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He’s a career .244 hitter. I’m not going to be surprised by a stretch where he hits .239.

And like I said initially, I totally buy he might be better if he played more regularly. What I’m suggesting is that resting him now is a luxury we can afford due to our record and the quality of backup TDA is. More rest now means a better chance he’s an impact player down the road.

Again, if Murphy is splitting time with TDA 50/50 in the playoffs, I’ll grab a pitchfork like everybody else. Until then, I really don’t see why it’s a big deal.
 
I think it is probably impossible to quantify how much playing time can factor into one's ability and success. To me it is probably harder to change regardless. Like going from playing everyday to part time back to playing everyday. If you want to draw any conclusion from his numbers then that would be it. He was a slow starter, but then played everyday and he started to click and was killing it.. then for whatever reason became a part time player and struggled.. now he is sort of into that role and is starting to come around again.... Or he is just an up and down player and it really doesn't matter what his playing time is. I really doubt numbers can tell someone for certain.
 
chop2chip said:
He’s a career .244 hitter. I’m not going to be surprised by a stretch where he hits .239.


Again, if Murphy is splitting time with TDA 50/50 in the playoffs, I’ll grab a pitchfork like everybody else. Until then, I really don’t see why it’s a big deal.
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I did just open my pitchfork and torch store in advance of the Braves postseason.. I figure I could be like that Halloween store and just pop up once a year and then go away after... I will send you a link of store locations.
 
chop2chip said:
He’s a career .244 hitter. I’m not going to be surprised by a stretch where he hits .239.

And like I said initially, I totally buy he might be better if he played more regularly. What I’m suggesting is that resting him now is a luxury we can afford due to our record and the quality of backup TDA is. More rest now means a better chance he’s an impact player down the road.

Again, if Murphy is splitting time with TDA 50/50 in the playoffs, I’ll grab a pitchfork like everybody else. Until then, I really don’t see why it’s a big deal.
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I can get behind this response.
 
Carp said:
You litertally just said in the post I quoted:

"The idea being he was a good back end option available for cheap that would prevent the Braves from using those AAAA SPs, and could move to the BP if everything worked out perfectly."

You most certainly did not view Lorenzen as a "back-end starter." You consistently viewed him as a better option than Morton and Elder. A difference maker is the term I think you used.

Lorenzen was already at his innings ceiling when he was traded to Philly. No manner of load management was likely to alter his results since the trade. He is a career journeyman middle reliever/starter for a reason and many people on here pointed out he was likely to regress the more innings he pitched. But I guess his xwOBA over 18 starts in his age 31 season holds more weight than the previous 8 seasons combined....
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Pure stupidity. Lorenzen started 18 games last year as well.

Actually, this is exactly what I wrote (bold added):

Enscheff said:
Just so we are all on the same page and talking in the same context, here is the 2022/2023 xwOBA for everyone we've been discussing:

Morton: .314/.338
Elder: .319/.311

I'm going to assume Strider and Fried are going to be at full strength in October. I'm also going to assume Wright is cooked with shoulder issues.

So that's the bar defining "impact SP"...better than the #3/#4 options Elder and Morton represent, as well as insurance for Fried and Strider.

Verlander: .255/.283
EdRod: .317/.290
Cease: .257/.313
Lorenzen: .307/.313

Verlander is an expensive aging stud, but still a stud. He is also the most complicated to acquire.

EdRod is the prototypical MOR rental, but he has a bit of extra downside due to the opt out.

Cease would be an excellent Morton replacement, but may not be available.

Lorenzen is the lowest quality option, but has the added benefit of being an option to easily move to the BP.
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and...

Enscheff said:
Lorenzen makes sense because he can start a playoff game or move to the BP in the event all of Strider/Fried/Wright/Morton are in top form in October.

EdRod makes sense because he is the best SP available who isn't being paid Cohen-stupid money. His downside risk could be nasty though with that opt out.

Verlander makes sense because that .282 xwOBA shows he's still an impact SP, but I just can't envision the Mets and Braves coming together on a trade of that magnitude.

Impact BP arms always make sense because no team will ever say no to a high leverage BP piece, not even the Braves.
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and...

Enscheff said:
Lorenzen for a 40+ seems like a deal AA could have pulled off for a guy likely to be better than both Morton and Elder
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Let me quote it again so you can read it verrrrry slowly: "he can start a playoff game or move to the BP in the event all of Strider/Fried/Wright/Morton are in top form in October."

Now Morton got rested, while Lorenzen got run into the ground. Had Lorenzen not been run into the ground, he probably wouldn't have been better than the .304 xwOBA Morton has posted since the deadline. So then, at that point, he would move behind Morton because he was in top form....which I will quote again:

"he can start a playoff game or move to the BP in the event all of Strider/Fried/Wright/Morton are in top form in October."

Can you understand the qualifying statement "if they are in top form"? Do you know what a "qualifying statement" is? Do you need a few minutes to look it up? Shall I post a link?

Elder and his .342 xwOBA in the same timeframe would likely have been bested by an uncooked Lorenzen, so I still think he would have pitched in the playoffs over him. Wright is still TBD, but we haven't seen him yet and time is quickly running out.

Seriously, this is written at about a 4th grade reading level. Please take your time, read it slowly, and try to follow it.
 
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Frek21 said:
I agree that adding Erod would have been good. You and I don’t have any idea how hard AA pushed for him or what Detroit was requiring from us so that’s a silly complaint based on feelings derp. Don’t think Lorenzen really would have moved the playoff needle at all without multiple SP injuries and then we are screwed anyways.
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I already covered in detail what I actually said about Lorenzen in the post immediately above this. At this point if folks choose to not understand the argument there's not really much more to discuss. The benefit of hindsight now knowing what Morton has done lately doesn't change the decision making process 6 weeks ago...no matter how much derp you want to inject into the discussion.
 
Man the Phillies are gonna get Trout. I can feel it. I'd love to convince him to come to Atlanta. Can imagine how sick our lineup would be with Trout in LF?
 
zitothebrave said:
Man the Phillies are gonna get Trout. I can feel it. I'd love to convince him to come to Atlanta. Can imagine how sick our lineup would be with Trout in LF?
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Trout and his 60 games played doesn't scare me. He's another in a long list of all-time greats that break down after 30.
 
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