6/21/15: GDT - NY Mets @ Atlanta Braves

[Heyward]

It's never enough. (And that was literally one of the premises of the tear-down.)

You cant trade every piece for something minor just to do it.

If a team makes a strong offer for someone, then yeah, i dont think this is the year to somewhat go for it.

I still think we'll fade.

Guess we'll see though.

 

[gilesfan]

The Braves in my estimation have played anywhere from 4-8 games over 500 under the assumption they have an average pen.

This is wrong, btw

 

[Pugfan]

This is wrong, btw

more like 2 games better with an average pen.

 

[Runnin]

.500 BABY!

 

[thethe]

This is wrong, btw

I dont believe so based on what I've seen. Even if you just take the obvious nationals game that's 2 games over 500 right there. There are many other obvious options as well.

 

[gilesfan]

An average pen blows leads too. As do great ones.

 

[nsacpi]

If you replace the pen guys with negative WAR with replacement level guys, you gain 1 win. If you add Stults and Cahill to the group, it gets you a total of 2 wins.

Fixing the pen would help for the rest of the season. But at the end of the day, that might end up just off-setting a normalization of our luck with hitting with RISP and pinch hitting (a shout out to our latest talisman Mr Ciriaco).

 

[thethe]

An average pen blows leads too. As do great ones.

And there are still plenty of blown saves to go around from this year.

 

[sturg33]

The Braves have lost 3 games this year when they scored 8 runs... They lost 2 during the previous 5 years.

ALL HAIL WREN

 

[thethe]

The Braves have lost 3 games this year when they scored 8 runs... They lost 2 during the previous 5 years.

ALL HAIL WREN

Sorry the rebuild didn't go absolutely perfect. We will just have to deal with going from having one of the worst farm systems in basball to one of the best while having a better offense and about the same starting pitching.

I guess it was only 90% perfect. Horrible work by the braintrust.

 

[sturg33]

Sorry the rebuild didn't go absolutely perfect. We will just have to deal with going from having one of the worst farm systems in basball to one of the best while having a better offense and about the same starting pitching.

I guess it was only 90% perfect. Horrible work by the braintrust.

Holy **** dude it was a joke. I was making a point in your favor, btw

 

[thethe]

Let's look at the actual numbers. Before today the Braves were 19-9 in games they led entering the sixth inning. That's a winning % of .679 as compared to the NL average of .829, which would translate to 23-5, so we'd be minus 4 by that analysis. BUT when you also consider games tied after six innings the Braves are .632 (12-7) compared to the league average of .505, so they are Plus three in that category. They are right on the league average of a 3-19 record in games trailing after six innings.

I have I included games tied entering each inning and games trailing entering each inning because it seems to me the bullpen is also a major factor in the outcome of those games.

So for the sixth innings the Braves are a net Minus 1 compared to the NL average (Minus four in games led, plus three in games tied and net zero on games behind)

If the beginning of the seventh inning is your benchmark the Braves are net minus 2 (Minus five, plus three, and zero).

If the beginning of the eighth inning is your benchmark the Braves are net plus 1 (minus 2, plus 2, plus 1)

If the beginning of the ninth inning is your benchmark, the Braves are net minus 1 (minus 1, minus 1, plus 1)

Food for thought, anyway.

The whole point is that the offense would be exactly the same but the bullpen would be better. So any of their performances relative to the league are irrelevant in my mind. You would have the same exact production offensively and from the starting pitching. The only difference would be that the bullpen would be better than the LEAGUE WORST. That would absolutely translate to move wins.

 

[thethe]

Holy **** dude it was a joke. I was making a point in your favor, btw

Can't tell when you are joking or not when it comes to Hart v Wren.

If thats the case then I'm sorry.

 

[gilesfan]

And there are still plenty of blown saves to go around from this year.

Your logic is wrong. Sorry, but it just is. You cannot look at it like that or you are simply saying ridiculous stuff like Heyward.

"Hey, if we maintained the lead in all the games we've managed to win so far and never blow a save, surely we are in first place by five games! All we have to do is fix the pen!"

A) they goes for just about every team
B) the difference between the braves pen and an average one is really minimal. This is why random relief pitchers rarely get traded for much in July......they don't make the impact than fans typically think they do.

 

[thethe]

Your logic is wrong. Sorry, but it just is. You cannot look at it like that or you are simply saying ridiculous stuff like Heyward.

"Hey, if we maintained the lead in all the games we've managed to win so far and never blow a save, surely we are in first place by five games! All we have to do is fix the pen!"

A) they goes for just about every team
B) the difference between the braves pen and an average one is really minimal. This is why random relief pitchers rarely get traded for much in July......they don't make the impact than fans typically think they do.

So with all things remaining equal (offense/defense/starting pitching) you don't think the Braves have 2 more wins with an average pen?

 

[gilesfan]

Certainly no more than 2 wins. However, based on our rates, we have 3-4 more wins than we should have at this point so hard to argue we should have 2 more wins with an average pen.

 

[thethe]

Certainly no more than 2 wins. However, based on our rates, we have 3-4 more wins than we should have at this point so hard to argue we should have 2 more wins with an average pen.

But none of those other results are going to change. We are considering this because improving a bullpen is about the easiest thing to do mid-season.

The whole point is to consider where this team would be with an average pen and I think conservatively we can assume that they would be 4 games over 500 right now. Personally, I think slightly higher than that but I can understand the counter argument. This team has gotten better in almost every area over the course of the season other than in the pen. If the Braves are still within striking distance come mid July while being at least 5 games over 500 I think improving the pen needs to be considered at a reasonable cost.

 

[Nerfherders]

The pen has been better since the San Diego series (it couldnt get any worse really). I do agree we should have a couple more wins. There was a point there for a while where we were blowing 2 or 3 run leads in the 7th inning on a nightly basis.

So I would say this team, overall, is about where I expected them to be at the start of the season. The Mets are about where I expected them to be. I did not expect Washington to struggle this much. So we aren't a great team, maybe not even a good one, but we are only 2 games out. A couple bullpen arms and a catcher are not unreasonable things to go after if we can stay within 3 games come July. I really don't think any team in our division is going to win 90 games.

 

[JCarbo76]

So with all things remaining equal (offense/defense/starting pitching) you don't think the Braves have 2 more wins with an average pen?

Here's the thing: Yeah, we have blown some leads in the 6th and 7th inning, but so has every other team. The other thing is that our record in games TIED in the 6th and 7th innings is actually quite good, and the bullpen has a large (positive, in this case) influence in those games.

As I linked above, bbref has the Braves' bullpen at a minus 1.8 games compared to the average National League bullpen. I think that is about right. And as Gilesfan has pointed out (shoot me for THAT) the true effect of middle relief on game outcomes is pretty marginal.

That said, I would like to have a couple of extra wins now, and middle relief IS something that can be improved (maybe it already has been, if you look at recent games) cheaply.

To answer your question, though, --two extra wins is about right, but not four, six, or eight as some have postulated.

 

[thethe]

Here's the thing: Yeah, we have blown some leads in the 6th and 7th inning, but so has every other team. The other thing is that our record in games TIED in the 6th and 7th innings is actually quite good, and the bullpen has a large (positive, in this case) influence in those games.

As I linked above, bbref has the Braves' bullpen at a minus 1.8 games compared to the average National League bullpen. I think that is about right. And as Gilesfan has pointed out (shoot me for THAT) the true effect of middle relief on game outcomes is pretty marginal.

That said, I would like to have a couple of extra wins now, and middle relief IS something that can be improved (maybe it already has been, if you look at recent games) cheaply.

To answer your question, though, --two extra wins is about right, but not four, six, or eight as some have postulated.

I think it ranges from 2 to 4 games which is significant.