GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Segura and Realmuto are both very good hitters. But the depth isn't there, for sure.
Around the League - 2021 Szn
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Segura and Realmuto are both very good hitters. But the depth isn't there, for sure.
Confidence knowing I'll have 200 IP at a middle of the rotation type effectiveness. All his injuries were flukes. Guy is a 2 WAR pitcher right now as a floor based on what I'm seeing. I'm also not sure why you think his range is 4-4.5 unless you think he degrades this offseason.
In terms of hard contact this is a listing of pitchers that have worse barrels per PA than Bumgarner:
Cole
Scherzer
Berrios
Taillon
Ian Anderson
He scores even better when you look at barrels per contact.
Can you elaborate on what you mean by 'attendant health concerns'?
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When you already have pitchers that imo are just as good at this point in Ynoa and Touki to be 4/5 starters.
Not to mention the fact you have a chance at upside instead of the continuing decline of Bum.
You need 8 starting pitchers for a full season...at least.
Baumgardner in a vacuum isn't a bad option. But his current salary and length of deal is what's to be avoided. Those types need to be signed to 1 year deals like Smyly. Smyly was ass for the 1st month but has been pretty much what you would expect/want since then. As long as that continues through the end of the season then I have no issues with what he's done for the team despite the rough start.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Well, he has a 4.06 ERA and a 4.06 FIP.
His FIP the last five years: 3.95, 3.99, 3.90, 7.18, 4.06.
He will have reached 200 IP once in his last 4 full seasons at the end of this year.
Older pitchers tend to miss starts: see previous seasons.
You tell me he's our 4-5 starter that's fine production wise but bad money and years.
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Southcack77
Well-known member
Savant has him about as dead average as you can be.
Bottom quartile Ks balanced by top quartile BBs, lots of 40-60th percentile entries.
He's an average pitcher in decline with a much better pitcher's deal.
Nothing wrong with him eating innings but not at that price.
Bottom quartile Ks balanced by top quartile BBs, lots of 40-60th percentile entries.
He's an average pitcher in decline with a much better pitcher's deal.
Nothing wrong with him eating innings but not at that price.
You don't think his fluke injuries had to do with those sub 200IP seasons?
Come on man - Guy is clearly still a 180-200 IP almost guaranteed.
He would produce what his contract is worth and he will do that over the span of the deal. If a guy like Smyly is worth it at 11 then Bumgarner is WELL WORTH IT at 17.
Still don't get where the decline is right now. Aside from 2020 he has basically been the same pitcher for five years.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Aside from the thing you don't want to talk about he's been mostly average.
The FIP and ERA are trending down.
FIP last five years:
3.95
3.99
3.90
7.18
4.06
I can't imagine why I think talking about 2020 is useless. But if you want to take an outlier that we have a more recent data point showing how true of an outlier it is as some form of reason why you don't want him then fine.
Its just not a great way of looking at if if you ask me.
Southcack77
Well-known member
It's about paying 23m/23m/14m to an average pitcher in decline.
I don't see anyone proposing that we would pay 100% of the contract.
I mean - If Arizona wants to give us another Touki to do it then I'm on board.
30-60 million is a pretty wide range of value.and that's before his contract is taken into consideration. You want to assume we take on roughly 40 million of that remaining salary. So he'd have maintain a roughly a 2 WAR/per season pace over the next 3 years. For an aging pitcher they has durability concerns, that's just not very likely. Why in the world would we take on that sort of risk?
If you want a risky pitcher with upside, sign Snydergaard in the off-season on a 1 year prove it deal.
Or Kluber. Or Greinke. Or Verlander. Or Davies. Or trade for the last remaining year of David Price. There's countless ways to get a 2-3 WAR pitcher that come with significantly less financial risk than MadBum.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Bum has been worth $17 one time since 2016.
You can want Bum without wanting the contract. You don’t need to do the mental gymnastics to make your general point that he could be a good fit to fill the Smyly role.
Are you not including 2016? 2016/2019 he was worth his money and I think you can easily make the argument he is worth it this year.
I don't want to pay his full contract unless the D-Backs are open to sending us a 45-50FV prospect.
Guys like Syndergard & Kluber are far more dangerous from my perspective. Those guys arms are ready to blow up. Might be the same with Verlander and his age.
I'm just throwing a range out there that includes the upper and lower bounds. I could be convinced he is worth anywhere from 30-60 million the next 3 years. I'm sure most would have him around 30-40.