Braves acquire Alex Jackson from SEA for Whalen and Povse

It's quite possible that I'm biased but I truly hope that Atlanta Drafts Brendan McKay. Kid is a stud with his arm and bat!
 
UofL_Braves said:
It's quite possible that I'm biased but I truly hope that Atlanta Drafts Brendan McKay. Kid is a stud with his arm and bat!
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I like McKay, but I want a position player if possible, and a college 1B doesn't seem to fit with what we're looking for. I get that in baseball, you just draft for value and not for need, but when taking a college player at #5, you probably want to take someone you can see penciling into your lineup within a couple years. And that wouldn't be McKay.

And if we draft him as a pitcher, there are others I'd want before him.
 
smootness said:
I agree, and yet it's still a profile I would be fine drafting at 5. 4 potential plus tools, with the only thing questionable being the hit tool? I would be completely fine with that. You're talking about somebody who could eventually profile as about a .270 guy with massive power who can run and play any OF position with a big arm? Sure, sign me up.
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Oh, just a question about the hit tool? That's all? Questions about whether he can do the most important thing a baseball player has to do? No big deal!

No thanks to anyone at #5 that maybe can't hit the baseball.

Give me Royce Lewis if he's there, otherwise just grab a pitcher so the pick will disappoint us like always.
 
Enscheff said:
Oh, just a question about the hit tool? That's all? Questions about whether he can do the most important thing a baseball player has to do? No big deal!

No thanks to anyone at #5 that maybe can't hit the baseball.

Give me Royce Lewis if he's there, otherwise just grab a pitcher so the pick will disappoint us like always.
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I think you go best value with the pick, where you lean to a bat all things being equal. It's hard to get too worked up at this point since things will change dramatically between now and June.
 
smootness said:
I think the deal works for both teams. But while AA is not considered the low minors, Povse's success there was driven largely by a low BABIP against and a high LOB%. His K-rate dropping so precipitously is not a good sign. The chances of him being a 2-3 SP in the majors are about 0.5%, at best.

His likely ceiling is a guy who strikes out about 5-6 per 9, walks very few, and gets hit at a decent clip. Basically a guy who could potentially be a #5 on a mediocre team, sort of a rich man's Williams Perez. And again, that's probably about the best-case scenario for him unless he captures lightning in a bottle.
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What about his hit rate dropping from 9.2/9 to 7.8/9? BB9 from 1.8 to 1.5? Those concern you, too?

I think given a little time at that level he'll continue to figure it out and the K9 will go back up. And I think there's plenty there to have made him a very interesting prospect, which may be borne out now in Seattle's system. I'll promise you, they don't see him as another swinging dick. They think it's a DiPoto master stroke.

As always, time will tell.
 
Povse compared favorably to some of the other guys who played in Mississippi last year.

Chris Ellis (at 23, a year older than Povse) had K and BB rates of 6.9 and 4.0.

Sean Newcomb (a few months older) was at 9.8 and 4.6. I realize that those numbers don't tell everything and that the Newcomb grades out higher based on his stuff.

Whalen (slightly younger) was at 8.4 and 3.3 in AA.

Add in that Povse is more of a ground ball pitcher than the guys listed above. There is a lot to like about him. The odds of any prospect (even the highly rated ones) becoming a middle of the rotation type major league pitcher are low. But there is enough to mark Povse as one to pay attention to.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
What about his hit rate dropping from 9.2/9 to 7.8/9? BB9 from 1.8 to 1.5? Those concern you, too?

I think given a little time at that level he'll continue to figure it out and the K9 will go back up. And I think there's plenty there to have made him a very interesting prospect, which may be borne out now in Seattle's system. I'll promise you, they don't see him as another swinging dick. They think it's a DiPoto master stroke.

As always, time will tell.
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Again, I'm sure they're happy to have him. They obviously soured on Jackson and probably view getting anything for him as a great deal. Just like we probably view getting a guy with Jackson's talent level for someone we didn't really see a future with us for as a great deal.

His BABIP against in AA was the lowest of his career, and his LOB% was the highest of his career. Did he figure something out to induce a bunch of weak contact, or did he get lucky? We don't really know, but there is some evidence he might have gotten a little lucky.

Povse is intriguing, I'm not saying he's not. I just don't believe, as some do, that we got nothing in return. We got someone still valued higher than Povse by at least some sources.

A guy who walks 1.5/9 is intriguing, but when you combine it with a K rate of 6/9, it suddenly becomes much less so. If he bumps his K rate up to 8 or so in AA while keeping the walks down, then he becomes much more interesting. But I doubt that will happen.
 
nsacpi said:
Povse compared favorably to some of the other guys who played in Mississippi last year.

Chris Ellis (at 23, a year older than Povse) had K and BB rates of 6.9 and 4.0.

Sean Newcomb (a few months older) was at 9.8 and 4.6. I realize that those numbers don't tell everything and that the Newcomb grades out higher based on his stuff.

Whalen (slightly younger) was at 8.4 and 3.3 in AA.

Add in that Povse is more of a ground ball pitcher than the guys listed above. There is a lot to like about him. The odds of any prospect (even the highly rated ones) becoming a middle of the rotation type major league pitcher are low. But there is enough to mark Povse as one to pay attention to.
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And Ellis and Whalen were worth virtually nothing on the trade market, as we proved.
 
smootness said:
Again, I'm sure they're happy to have him. They obviously soured on Jackson and probably view getting anything for him as a great deal. Just like we probably view getting a guy with Jackson's talent level for someone we didn't really see a future with us for as a great deal.

His BABIP against in AA was the lowest of his career, and his LOB% was the highest of his career. Did he figure something out to induce a bunch of weak contact, or did he get lucky? We don't really know, but there is some evidence he might have gotten a little lucky.

Povse is intriguing, I'm not saying he's not. I just don't believe, as some do, that we got nothing in return. We got someone still valued higher than Povse by at least some sources.

A guy who walks 1.5/9 is intriguing, but when you combine it with a K rate of 6/9, it suddenly becomes much less so. If he bumps his K rate up to 8 or so in AA while keeping the walks down, then he becomes much more interesting. But I doubt that will happen.
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K9 had never been that low before. So I have no doubt it will rebound. As for your relative return point, I agree. We both got something interesting. I'm glad we got Jackson. I wish the price had been other than Povse.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Chip, I've always liked Povse, and the more I think about it, I'm with you. He's not striking out 9-10/9, never will, but that's offset by two things - he's not even walking 2 per 9, and his HR/9 has been between .2 and .5 each stop. That's the profile of a power sinkerballer, with the additional bonus of the extra few inches of downward tilt. If he sharpens his secondary pitches he may be a bit less hittable, at which point you're talking about a 2-3 SP, maybe. He's not "just a guy" as many numbers guys might contend.

I like the deal from the Braves' side if they move Jackson back to catcher, because if he can play it the bat isn't as critical and they can take their time with him. He's immature....he's also young and could figure it out.

I like the deal from the Mariners side because like you, I think Povse is massively under-appreciated.
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Povse has 3 very unique qualities that your whalens and ellises don't have.

1. he's 6'9" science tells us that's worth a little more velocity than a short guy

2. he doesn't walk anybody. what a rare commodity to have in a young pitcher.

3. he doesn't give up home runs

consider how those really tall guys project down the road as well. it takes somebody like povse longer to fill into his body. he's likely now just figuring out how it can all work. imagine him with 25 more pound down the line...
 
I guess you could argue over how we should have traded Povse, but he would have never pitched in Atlanta. I guess that's why I'm not worried too much about losing him. It's clear that the front office is looking for guys who have the ability to possibly become dominant and not ground ball specialists.
 
Chico said:
I guess you could argue over how we should have traded Povse, but he would have never pitched in Atlanta. I guess that's why I'm not worried too much about losing him. It's clear that the front office is looking for guys who have the ability to possibly become dominant and not ground ball specialists.
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I just don't like that argument. Until he proves he doesn't belong you can't say that. I was a huge fan of Povse, mostly because he didn't walk anyone and was very efficient with his pitches. I was fine with trading him, just would have liked a better return.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
K9 had never been that low before. So I have no doubt it will rebound. As for your relative return point, I agree. We both got something interesting. I'm glad we got Jackson. I wish the price had been other than Povse.
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His K/9 had also never been as high as it was in A+. He's been about a 7 per 9 guy so far, and I would expect that to drop a bit as he advances.
 
gilesfan said:
Congrats guys, 14 pages on an absolute nothing trade.
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Haha.

I mean, the bottom line is that the value was basically even in the trade and Povse was unlikely to ever surpass a bunch of the other pitching prospects we have to actually be counted on at the major league level.

Anyone claiming it was a bad trade or upset that we gave up Povse simply fell in love with a specific prospect.
 
smootness said:
Haha.

I mean, the bottom line is that the value was basically even in the trade and Povse was unlikely to ever surpass a bunch of the other pitching prospects we have to actually be counted on at the major league level.

Anyone claiming it was a bad trade or upset that we gave up Povse simply fell in love with a specific prospect.
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You keep the ones who have a certain special "it" factor. Numbers are a part of it, sure. There's only one in a hundred who has a 1.5 BB9 and one in a million who have that kind of command and that long a body.

He's not a ****ing spreadsheet. Paul dePodesta failed miserably with the Dodgers letting data lead him around by the nose. Data enhances understanding and confirms theses; it does not lead.

So, no, I do not agree that he's just a guy. Hopefully it's okay that we don't agree and you don't have to make one more post saying he's just another guy - or that indicates "falling in love with a prospect." You'd better have some conviction about your judgement.
 
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