Braves Draft Pick Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Here's a breakdown of our top 10 picks in the past 5 drafts, by HS pitcher & hitter and college pitcher and hitter.

2010
6 college hitters
2 college pitchers
2 HS hitters
0 HS pitchers

2011
6 college hitters
4 college pitchers
0 HS hitters
0 HS pitchers

2012
3 college hitters
4 college pitchers
2 HS hitters
1 HS pitcher

2013
3 college hitters
2 college pitchers
3 HS hitters
2 HS pitchers

2014
3 college hitters
4 college pitchers
2 HS hitters
1 HS pitcher

The one thing that stands out the most in the past five years is the under-representation of the HS pitcher. This tendency continued in 2014. The last draft we invested heavily in HS pitchers was in 2008, when we took DeVall, Stovall and Spruill with our first three picks. That experience was disappointing enough that we have not repeated it since.

In general, we have invested more in college players during the past five years when it comes to our first ten picks in the draft. This tendency had been waning, with parity being reached in 2013 between HS and college players taken. But this year we went back to an emphasis on college players.
 
Has anyone else noticed that the Braves tend to draft college guys from smaller colleges? UNC Greensboro, South Carolina Upstate, Florida Southern, UNC Pembroke, Southeast Missouri St. Heck, you can throw Southern Mississippi in there as well. Previously, they have drafted guys from Texas State, Coastal Carolina, Florida Southern yet again, SE Missouri State yet again....etc.
 
Tellor from the same school that gave us Shae Simmons. Switch-hitter, 6-4. But reports are he doesn't say much.

Teller.jpg
 
nsacpi said:
Here's a breakdown of our top 10 picks in the past 5 drafts, by HS pitcher & hitter and college pitcher and hitter.

2010

6 college hitters

2 college pitchers

2 HS hitters

0 HS pitchers

2011

6 college hitters

4 college pitchers

0 HS hitters

0 HS pitchers

2012

3 college hitters

4 college pitchers

2 HS hitters

1 HS pitcher

2013

3 college hitters

2 college pitchers

3 HS hitters

2 HS pitchers

2014

3 college hitters

4 college pitchers

2 HS hitters

1 HS pitcher

The one thing that stands out the most in the past five years is the under-representation of the HS pitcher. This tendency continued in 2014. The last draft we invested heavily in HS pitchers was in 2008, when we took DeVall, Stovall and Spruill with our first three picks. That experience was disappointing enough that we have not repeated it since.

In general, we have invested more in college players during the past five years when it comes to our first ten picks in the draft. This tendency had been waning, with parity being reached in 2013 between HS and college players taken. But this year we went back to an emphasis on college players.
Click to expand...

I'm very mixed on this as well. I think this philosophy is rooted in finances personaly. They have drafted a lot of guys that have gotten to AA and AAA from the college level, but this method has not produced very many star prospects. As a result, the system is very down from a talent standpoint.

I'd much rather go back to the days when the large majority of the picks were high school players. While some of them may flame out at the lower levels, we seemed to have more top flight prospects when we had that approach.
 
KB21 said:
Has anyone else noticed that the Braves tend to draft college guys from smaller colleges? UNC Greensboro, South Carolina Upstate, Florida Southern, UNC Pembroke, Southeast Missouri St. Heck, you can throw Southern Mississippi in there as well. Previously, they have drafted guys from Texas State, Coastal Carolina, Florida Southern yet again, SE Missouri State yet again....etc.
Click to expand...

Add Princeton to that list.
 
Scouting report on Roney:

The Orioles drafted Roney as a third baseman in the 18th round out of an Alabama high school in 2011, and he has been a regular on the infield corners the last two seasons at Southern Mississippi. But he has been far more successful as a reliever, tying the Golden Eagles' career record with 30 saves, and that will be his role in pro ball. Though he rarely gets the luxury of warming up in the bullpen, Roney shows off a low-90s fastball that can reach 95 mph and features nice life. He's capable of throwing a solid slider, though he gets around the pitch at times. He also has a changeup that he uses mostly as a show pitch. Once he gives up hitting and focuses on pitching, Roney could take a step forward. He's still raw on the mound, lacking feel and command. He has a quick arm, but he also has some effort in his delivery, and he missed time this spring with shoulder issues.
 
KB21 said:
I'm very mixed on this as well. I think this philosophy is rooted in finances personaly. They have drafted a lot of guys that have gotten to AA and AAA from the college level, but this method has not produced very many star prospects. As a result, the system is very down from a talent standpoint.

I'd much rather go back to the days when the large majority of the picks were high school players. While some of them may flame out at the lower levels, we seemed to have more top flight prospects when we had that approach.
Click to expand...

The other interesting detail is that while we pick a lot of college hitters in the first ten rounds, even in the first 2 or 3 rounds, when it comes to first round picks we do not select college hitters. Their philosophy when it comes to college hitters is you pick them mainly to be your depth or bench guys or marginal starter (guys like Cunningham, Terdoslavich and La Stella come to mind). But we've had a couple lucky "accidents" when it comes to college hitters. Simmons was drafted with the intention he would be a pitcher. And Gattis is just a one-of-a-kind sort of freak occurrence. In general, we do not look for building block type players from the ranks of college hitters.
 
Good analysis. I agree that we are seeing a continual departure from the high school pitcher, but we nabbed Grosser last year and I'm thinking that maybe they have someone in mind again this year to draft early tomorrow. Marshall? Probably not, but someone considered a tough sign.

Hard to get a read. A lot of variance between the publications I read on Dykstra and Edgerton. BA has both of them in their Top 500. The other (sorry, premium content) has Dykstra much lower in their Top 500 (BA at 113, other at approximately 330). Edgerton is 437 at BA and off the grid elsewhere. Curcio is absent even a mention in BA (Top 500 or Florida state report) but is ranked as a probable late pick elsewhere.

What's it mean? Just conjecture, but I think they'll be below slot of Curcio, Edgerton, and Tellor and try to roll those bucks forward for the remainder of the draft, when they may go high on someone. I can't see anyone in the top ten picks for whom they will have to go dramatically above slot, if at all.

From what I've read, Dykstra may end up in the OF. Scouts wonder if his bat will carry.

Tellor was a teammate of Shae Simmons at SE Missouri State.
 
The run on high school players ended quickly enough. Four straight college guys came next.

From Bowman:

Curcio hit .314 with an .887 OPS, and he was successful with 23 of the 24 stolen base attempts he recorded in 54 games with the NCAA Division II school. The 22-year-old prospect struck out just 17 times in 210 at-bats and made a smooth transition from third base to center field.

Braves scout Buddy Hernandez was credited for following Curcio, who was named a semifinalist for the Josh Willingham Award, which goes to the NCAA Division II's top player. He was also named to the Rawlings/ABCA NCAA Division II Gold Glove team.

The Braves took Braxton Davidson with their first selection and then used each of their next four picks on pitchers -- Garrett Fulenchuk, Max Povse, Chad Sobotka and Chris Diaz. Curcio was the fourth consecutive collegiate product taken by Atlanta.

"We're going to try to get the best player or best pitcher that is available for us," Braves director of scouting Tony DeMacio said. "We're drafting for need."

Given that none of their outfielders rank among their top 10 prospects according to MLB.com, the Braves certainly have a need to strengthen the organization's outfield depth.
 
nsacpi said:
The other interesting detail is that while we pick a lot of college hitters in the first ten rounds, even in the first 2 or 3 rounds, when it comes to first round picks we do not select college hitters. Their philosophy when it comes to college hitters is you pick them mainly to be your depth or bench guys or marginal starter (guys like Cunningham, Terdoslavich and La Stella come to mind). But we've had a couple lucky "accidents" when it comes to college hitters. Simmons was drafted with the intention he would be a pitcher. And Gattis is just a one-of-a-kind sort of freak occurrence. In general, we do not look for building block type players from the ranks of college hitters.
Click to expand...

Yep, and IMO, they are using the premium picks in the draft on guys who will likely be nothing more than organizational depth.
 
KB21 said:
Has anyone else noticed that the Braves tend to draft college guys from smaller colleges? UNC Greensboro, South Carolina Upstate, Florida Southern, UNC Pembroke, Southeast Missouri St. Heck, you can throw Southern Mississippi in there as well. Previously, they have drafted guys from Texas State, Coastal Carolina, Florida Southern yet again, SE Missouri State yet again....etc.
Click to expand...

The thing about college baseball is that the programs in bold are all D1. UNC-Pembroke and Florida Southern are D2.

rico, Mayo and Callis said Tellor had a monster year, but that SE Mo. State is a hitters' paradise.
 
50PoundHead said:
Good analysis. I agree that we are seeing a continual departure from the high school pitcher, but we nabbed Grosser last year and I'm thinking that maybe they have someone in mind again this year to draft early tomorrow. Marshall? Probably not, but someone considered a tough sign.

Hard to get a read. A lot of variance between the publications I read on Dykstra and Edgerton. BA has both of them in their Top 500. The other (sorry, premium content) has Dykstra much lower in their Top 500 (BA at 113, other at approximately 330). Edgerton is 437 at BA and off the grid elsewhere. Curcio is absent even a mention in BA (Top 500 or Florida state report) but is ranked as a probable late pick elsewhere.

What's it mean? Just conjecture, but I think they'll be below slot of Curcio, Edgerton, and Tellor and try to roll those bucks forward for the remainder of the draft, when they may go high on someone. I can't see anyone in the top ten picks for whom they will have to go dramatically above slot, if at all.

From what I've read, Dykstra may end up in the OF. Scouts wonder if his bat will carry.

Tellor was a teammate of Shae Simmons at SE Missouri State.
Click to expand...

Looking at MLB.com's list of top available, these are the guys that would need to be over the slot signings:

JB Bukauskas, RHP

Keith Weisenberg, RHP

Mac Marshall, LHP

Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP

Cobi Johnson, RHP

Keaton McKinney, RHP

Jeren Kendall, OF

JJ Schwartz, C

Evan Skoug, C

Adam Haseley, OF

Tate Blackmon, 2B

Trenton Kemp, OF

Isiah Gillman, OF

David Peterson, LHP

Shane Benes, SS

Jake Godfrey, RHP

Ryan Rider, RHP

rico43 said:
The run on high school players ended quickly enough. Four straight college guys came next.

From Bowman:

Curcio hit .314 with an .887 OPS, and he was successful with 23 of the 24 stolen base attempts he recorded in 54 games with the NCAA Division II school. The 22-year-old prospect struck out just 17 times in 210 at-bats and made a smooth transition from third base to center field.

Braves scout Buddy Hernandez was credited for following Curcio, who was named a semifinalist for the Josh Willingham Award, which goes to the NCAA Division II's top player. He was also named to the Rawlings/ABCA NCAA Division II Gold Glove team.

The Braves took Braxton Davidson with their first selection and then used each of their next four picks on pitchers -- Garrett Fulenchuk, Max Povse, Chad Sobotka and Chris Diaz. Curcio was the fourth consecutive collegiate product taken by Atlanta.

"We're going to try to get the best player or best pitcher that is available for us," Braves director of scouting Tony DeMacio said. "We're drafting for need."

Given that none of their outfielders rank among their top 10 prospects according to MLB.com, the Braves certainly have a need to strengthen the organization's outfield depth.
Click to expand...

The best player available and drafting for need do not necessarily go together.
 
This on Dykstra:

The Braves dipped into baseball's All-Star history when they took Luke Dykstra, the son of former All-Star Lenny Dykstra, in the seventh round of the First-Year Player Draft.

"He plays like his daddy," a scout said via a text message sent shortly after the Braves made the selection late Friday afternoon.

Dykstra established himself as a sound offensive threat while playing shortstop and second base at suburban Los Angeles' Westlake High School. The 19-year-old infielder was recently named a 2014 Perfect Game second team All-American and the player of the year in his high school's conference.

The 6-foot-1, 195-pound Dykstra has always had a close relationship with his older brother, Cutter, who is playing for the Nationals' Double-A affiliate in Harrisburg, Pa.

The Braves were impressed with Dykstra's advanced plate discipline and ability to consistently make solid contact. The infielder has also displayed the will to win that his father showed as he established himself as one of the game's most intense competitors during a 12-year Major League career that included three All-Star selections and two World Series titles.

Lenny Dykstra and Braves pitching coach Roger McDowell were teammates on the 1986 Mets team that won the World Series.
 
Moving on from our top 10 picks each year, here are some data on what we do with the 11th-20th players selected and signed over the 2010-2013 drafts.

2010
4 college hitters
4 college pitchers
1 HS hitter
1 HS pitcher

2011
2 college hitters
7 college pitchers
1 HS hitter
0 HS pitchers

2012
5 college hitters
3 college pitchers
2 HS hitters
0 HS pitchers

2013
1 college hitter
8 college pitchers
0 HS hitters
1 HS pitcher

If anything we become even more college heavy after the first ten rounds. I happen to agree with this general approach, but I think the Braves have probably taken it a little too far. Among the few HS players taken in this group is Brandon Drury. Generally the yield once you get past the top 10 rounds is maybe 1 player per draft who makes the major leagues. The sample of HS players we've taken is so small it is hard to say if we would do worse taking more. But Drury's presence on the list as well as the success some other teams have had with low round HS picks suggest we should not write them off completely.

In general I agree with the sort of approach the Braves take. More HS picks at the very top. In the first round, we've taken Heyward, Gilmore (1st round supplemental), DeVall (1st round supplemental), Lipka (1st round supplemental), Sims, and now Davidson. So we are not at all reluctant to take high schoolers very early in the draft. And we take a fair number in the second and third rounds. But then we reduce the proportion pretty sharply. I'm not disagreeing about reducing the proportion of high schoolers as we go deeper into the draft. The question is whether it is too sharp a reduction. From the data for the past four drafts, we average 1.5 high school players in the 11-20 group of players we select. I would like to see it taken up to about 3 out of ten. You still take mostly college players in those rounds, but sprinkle a few more high school picks than we have been doing.
 
I thought they'd go heavier on pitching. I think Davidson is the real deal. Curcio looks like Frank Wren, Jr., Jr. I have no idea on Edgerton and Tellor. I think they'll try to sign Dykstra and I think he's probably a better than average prospect.

I like the Fulenchek pick and I think Diaz could move fast. Povse, Sobotka, and Roney all have upside as relievers. They just need to get healthy and/or more experienced.
 
Jordan Edgerton was rated by BBA only No. 471 in this year's draft mix, but that might be the paper's natural prejudice against DII players. He was the DII Hitter of the Week once, and was rated as highly for his defense at third as for his hitting.

When he was national hitter of the week, his final game was 5-5 with two homers and seven RBIs.
As a sophomore, he led the nation (DII) in hits with 94 (.392), including 29 xbh and 56 RBIs. He had four four-hit games as a sophomore. As a junior, hit .369 with 11 homers and 58 RBIs in 51 games, 22 walks and ONLY 9 STRIKEOUTS! Defense backslid, however.

FYI: Pembroke nickname: Braves.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top