Hanley has a steamer projected WAR of 3.3 next year in 600 PA's. That sounds about right. So at 22 million next season he would be getting paid 6.67 million per WAR. That's a step up from last off season when hitters were getting roughly 6 million per WAR. If anything he's overpaid because as he ages his WAR will likely see some decline as he's now on the wrong side of 30. But as of now he got market value.
Braves Meeting with Lester
- Thread starter Hawk
- Start date
Enscheff will love this.
David O'Brien
@DOBrienAJC
For what it's worth, earlier this year Jon Lester bought a house that's very close to site of the new #Braves ballpark.
David O'Brien
@DOBrienAJC
Lester and his wife and kids have lived near Peachtree City in recent years.
David O'Brien
@DOBrienAJC
For what it's worth, earlier this year Jon Lester bought a house that's very close to site of the new #Braves ballpark.
David O'Brien
@DOBrienAJC
Lester and his wife and kids have lived near Peachtree City in recent years.
Sure those are factors. The biggest one is production though. If Hanley is projected to be a 3-4 win player then this is pretty much market value.
I'd argue that 'projected' production is actually a very menial component of what determines the financial value of a player in the modern baseball economy.
Ramirez wanted $130MM+ over 5 years last spring. He took $88MM over 4 as the top impact bat available at a position (SS) that several teams with extremely deep pockets desperately need to upgrade. In November.
Top impact bat or not players are still paid on production. And yes projected production is very important when handing out contracts to players over the age of 30. He has a history of beiing injured and an inconsistant bat. He is no longer the star SS he was in his mid 20's. He's not that guy. He is who he is right now. A 3-4 win player who is offense first. Those guys get paid what Hanley got paid.
Demonstrated production is a baseline. Projected production is a consideration (especially for a player over 30 ... because their contributions are going to be extremely unpredictable). This isn't a simulation, there are many other driving elements that come into play here that are well outside of the rigid model you have chosen to adhere to.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
There sure have been a lot of reports lately that later we hear is "not accurate." Gammons seems to put out a lot of reports these days that turn out to not be not accurate. So much so that anytime he says something I simply wait to see what other sources say before I pass his information along.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
I know the feeling, that is why I started ignoring him. Though I understand the temptation because it is annoying as often as he takes posts out of context or simply misreads them, etc.
Right. So past and future production isn't whats used to determine contracts? Makes sense to me.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
It's random. You could get a five year, $120m deal on the right day.
BRule
<B>BBQ Lead Hostess</B>
Kershaw - 33 per
Verlander - 26 per
Lee - 25 per
Felix - 25 per
Greinke - 25 per
Hamels - 24 per
Lincecum - 23 per
CC - 23 per
Considering Lester is better than all but 2, maybe 3 of those guys, also factoring in what Max is going to get.....I'd say 22 is under market for Lester.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
When they got their money, Lester isn't better than any of those guys. $22m is actually about right. I don't really have a cat in this fight, though.
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
I love Peter Gammons, guy was one of the best of the business, and his credibility as an insider was great during the late 80's and throughout the 90's...but he's past his prime and he's become senile and in his mind everybody is going to the Red Sox.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Looks to me like everybody IS going to the Red Sox. They've got, like, seven outfielders and three third basemen.
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
Should be a pretty good World Series then, we'll see who wins out...pitching or hitting.
That's right, your 2015 Atlanta Braves consisting of 10 starting pitchers and 15 relievers...and the Boston Red Sox with 25 hitters.
Exactly. Supply and demand. Or just insanity - hello, Tom Hicks.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
BRule
<B>BBQ Lead Hostess</B>
Couple things....
1- It doesn't matter when they got the contract, those are the highest paid pitchers and that's how deals work.
2- Lester is coming off a 6.1 WAR, were his value was at 33.4 mil with a 2.46 ERA and a xFIP of 3.10
Verlander signed his deal after the 2012 season in which he had a 7 WAR and a value of 31.5 with a 2.64 and a 3.31 xFIP
Lee signed his deal after the 2010 season in which he had a 7 WAR and a value of 29.6 with a 3.18 ERA 3.06 and a xFIP
Feliz signed his deal after the 2011 season in which he had a 4.7 WAR and a value of 21.2 with a 3.47 ERA and a 3.15 xFIP
Greinke signed his deal after the 2012 season in which he had a 4.8 WAR and a value of 21.8 with a 3.48 ERA and a 3.22 xFIP
Hamels signed his deal after the 2011 season in which he had a 4.6 WAR with a value of 20.7 with a 2.79 ERA and a 3.02 xFIP
CC signed his deal after the 2008 season in which he had a 7.2 WAR with a value of 32.4 mil with a 2.7 ERA and a 3.06 xFIP
Point of all that? Lester was better than most of those guys and equal to others, aside from Kershaw.