Braves Sign Teheran to 6 year extension

KeithLockhart said:
My worry is he might have TJ surgery one of those years.

Remember they tried to change his mechanics to preserve him long term but they reverted back to his old mechanics.
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Deal seems low enough to me to have one year for rehab factored in. Good pitchers with some experience are getting 10 mill/year now, so that's what Julio will likely be worth in a couple years, and we're paying him way less than that. Some risk but there always is. This is a pretty team friendly deal IMO.
 
Heyward said:
Maybe sometime around Spring Training.

Better question is how much?

7/65, with an 8th year option at 13 million.
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Now is the perfect time to extend Simmons before he finds his bat. Those numbers are high: more along the lines of what he should be offered AFTER/IF he finds his bat.
 
Looks to me like the braves have convinced Liberty that salaries are going to EXPLODE soon. They are looking to lock in 90c on dollar deals b/c they will be 50 c on the dollar deals in a couple of years.

I think this is a great deal if you think Tehran has a basement of a good 3rd starter and/or has a legit shot at being an ace. He could get hurt, but you have insurance and you have all his info (you've groomed him since 16).

I hope Simmons is next.

If the Braves end up with Simmons, Freeman, and Tehran locked in for 6+ years.....then the Braves are in a GREAT spot. They have their leader hitter. They would have stud SS with offensive upside (and allows you to put a bat at 3rd w/ limited range). And they have their number 1 starter (worst case 3rd starter).



With those 3 locked down then the Braves have some leverage with Minor, Heyward, JUp, and Medlen. Leverage b/c they have 3 big spots locked down and they don't have to panic. They can lay out their plan and if the players don't agree or fit, then make the best moves you can.
 
Dalyn said:
Now is the perfect time to extend Simmons before he finds his bat. Those numbers are high: more along the lines of what he should be offered AFTER/IF he finds his bat.
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I'd offer him something along the lines of 6/50 right now. A shade over 8 MM per.
 
Simmons I think I'd look for a very team friendly deal and then put in some incentives if he finds his bat. And I'd want to get at least 2, prob 3 FA years.

Like 8/60 with OPS targets that could get him up to 100. Lots of steps inbetween. It will be a bargain in 5 years.
 
Dalyn said:
Now is the perfect time to extend Simmons before he finds his bat. Those numbers are high: more along the lines of what he should be offered AFTER/IF he finds his bat.
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Thats a touch under 10 mil a year.

Without the option.

With his defense, thats a bargain.

And it would buy-out 4 FA years.
 
Heyward said:
Thats a touch under 10 mil a year.

Without the option.

With his defense, thats a bargain.

And it would buy-out 4 FA years.
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Defense is undervalued. No point in being the first to pay it what it's worth if you don't have to.
 
Heyward said:
Maybe sometime around Spring Training.

Better question is how much?

7/65, with an 8th year option at 13 million.
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No, I don't make that deal. I mean let me put it this way, it would be a bargain deal for us most likely. But considering he has 5 years until FA that is way too Simmons friendly. Especially since defense peaks early, if he doesn't start hitting we may have already seen the best of him. I don't believe that but that would be a super risky signing for the Braves.

7/50 would be more friendly as it would basically mean 1M for his pre-arb then say 4, 7 and 10 for arb and then basically 28 for his FA years. Undervaluing his pre-arb most likely but that's more or less how you have tothink of the deal. 7/65 would be like 1M for pre arb 5 10 15 and then 35 for FA. And no way in hell is he worth that on the market. If he thinks he is then he can leave in a few years.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Looks to me like the braves have convinced Liberty that salaries are going to EXPLODE soon. They are looking to lock in 90c on dollar deals b/c they will be 50 c on the dollar deals in a couple of years.

I think this is a great deal if you think Tehran has a basement of a good 3rd starter and/or has a legit shot at being an ace. He could get hurt, but you have insurance and you have all his info (you've groomed him since 16).

I hope Simmons is next.

If the Braves end up with Simmons, Freeman, and Tehran locked in for 6+ years.....then the Braves are in a GREAT spot. They have their leader hitter. They would have stud SS with offensive upside (and allows you to put a bat at 3rd w/ limited range). And they have their number 1 starter (worst case 3rd starter).

With those 3 locked down then the Braves have some leverage with Minor, Heyward, JUp, and Medlen. Leverage b/c they have 3 big spots locked down and they don't have to panic. They can lay out their plan and if the players don't agree or fit, then make the best moves you can.
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Medlen is already 28 and will be 30 by the time he hits FA.

I doubt they extend him, at least not very long.

Minor/JHey/JUp, sure.

I think the plan all along has been for Simmons, JHey, FF as the core and build around them.

I dont think they keep both JHey/JUp, but i dont think both leave either.

JHey will be the hardest to sign though.
 
zitothebrave said:
No, I don't make that deal. I mean let me put it this way, it would be a bargain deal for us most likely. But considering he has 5 years until FA that is way too Simmons friendly. Especially since defense peaks early, if he doesn't start hitting we may have already seen the best of him. I don't believe that but that would be a super risky signing for the Braves.

7/50 would be more friendly as it would basically mean 1M for his pre-arb then say 4, 7 and 10 for arb and then basically 28 for his FA years. Undervaluing his pre-arb most likely but that's more or less how you have tothink of the deal. 7/65 would be like 1M for pre arb 5 10 15 and then 35 for FA. And no way in hell is he worth that on the market. If he thinks he is then he can leave in a few years.
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:facepalm:
 
zitothebrave said:
No, I don't make that deal. I mean let me put it this way, it would be a bargain deal for us most likely. But considering he has 5 years until FA that is way too Simmons friendly. Especially since defense peaks early, if he doesn't start hitting we may have already seen the best of him. I don't believe that but that would be a super risky signing for the Braves.

7/50 would be more friendly as it would basically mean 1M for his pre-arb then say 4, 7 and 10 for arb and then basically 28 for his FA years. Undervaluing his pre-arb most likely but that's more or less how you have tothink of the deal. 7/65 would be like 1M for pre arb 5 10 15 and then 35 for FA. And no way in hell is he worth that on the market. If he thinks he is then he can leave in a few years.
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Thats 78 million for 8 years with the option.

Expensive, sure, but nothing insane like 30 mil a year.

Thats just a tick under 10 mil a year, factor in his defense and improved hitting, thats more than a good deal.
 
10M a year for someone who's 5 years from FA and not Mike Trout is insanely expensive. He has 2 years of league minimum, 3 years of arb. If we compare his pre-arb numbers to the contract signed by Andrus for his pre-FA years. would be like 3, 5 and 7. That was the deal Andrus signed to avoid arb rounded up. My 4, 7, 10 is assuming Simmons is better than Andrus and the arbitrator recognizes it.

So again, pre-FA you're at 22M meaning you're valuing his FA years at 43M or 21.5M per FA year.

Of course Simmons could start hitting then his valuation would be similar to Tulo's who in his extention he signed had his arb years valued at 3.5M 5.5 and 8.25M but you have to acknowledge he signed it years ago.

Tulo signed for 6/31 back in 06, Market has obviosuly risen but you're talking about baying SImmons double that for one more year, the market hasn't increased over 100%
 
If I was Wren I would offer simmons a deal through his arb years and with a big team option for his first year or two of free agency. Assuming health Simmons is going to get a lot in arbitration because they value stats like at bats, runs, rbi and hr. Simmons is going to get a ton of at bats barring injuries he could go into his first year of arbitration with almost 2k at bats and 50 home runs. If he hits like he did in the second half and gets to 20 hr a year he is gonna be an all star.

I don't really trust the bat to ever be better than average so I would hesitate to buy out free agent years.
 
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