Braves Sign Teheran to 6 year extension
- Thread starter lwj10jr
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Deester11
Well-known member
Excellent post. Teheran is not an ace yet. But for a rookie doing what he did? KeithLockhart(ewww), I'm not sure you saw what most saw. Jorge Sosa? Not close. I'm glad the Braves see a potential early rotation guy. He may not be Pedro, but as he grows into a vet, I'm thinking that contract will be a bargain.
First things first, the reason I said Alex Wood was because 1) Alex already had TJ and 2) If we're going to give a big contract to an unproven pitcher with not so good mechanics, I'd rather go Wood because he showed a lot more in his starts than Teheran did.
And yes Teheran did labor in a good amount of his starts like Sosa used to do. I remember when Julio was throwing like 6-8 pitches per batter, it was just a struggle to watch.
And again, there's nothing about his stuff that blows me away. He's going to have to learn how to pitch instead of trying to strikeout everybody.
And yes Teheran did labor in a good amount of his starts like Sosa used to do. I remember when Julio was throwing like 6-8 pitches per batter, it was just a struggle to watch.
And again, there's nothing about his stuff that blows me away. He's going to have to learn how to pitch instead of trying to strikeout everybody.
While I'm glad to see the Braves attempting to lock up our young core, at least longer than we already had them locked up, neither the Freeman or Teheran deals are at any type of discount. Basically what we've done is locked in what is expected they would have gotten had they not signed these deals.
The problem I have with both deals is this. We went from only on the hook for this year's salary, to now guaranteeing Freddie 8 years and Julio 6. Instead of us being obligated to pay Julio league minimum for this year and Freddie roughly $5MM for this year, we have now guaranteed them $167.2MM over the next 7-8 years. Usually when one side is willing to make the gamble of guaranteeing the other side all this money, in return they should receive some type of reduction concession. In both of these two cases, we did not.
We have now taken on a tremendous amount of additional risk over the next 7-8 years, yet received no discount for it. Freddie's deal should have been for more like $120MM-$125MM, and Julio's should have been around $25MM-$28MM. We've taken on all the risk with no compensation for that additional risk. Could they work out? Sure they could if both continue to perform at high levels for the length of the deals. But they also could turn out to be quite damaging.
The problem I have with both deals is this. We went from only on the hook for this year's salary, to now guaranteeing Freddie 8 years and Julio 6. Instead of us being obligated to pay Julio league minimum for this year and Freddie roughly $5MM for this year, we have now guaranteed them $167.2MM over the next 7-8 years. Usually when one side is willing to make the gamble of guaranteeing the other side all this money, in return they should receive some type of reduction concession. In both of these two cases, we did not.
We have now taken on a tremendous amount of additional risk over the next 7-8 years, yet received no discount for it. Freddie's deal should have been for more like $120MM-$125MM, and Julio's should have been around $25MM-$28MM. We've taken on all the risk with no compensation for that additional risk. Could they work out? Sure they could if both continue to perform at high levels for the length of the deals. But they also could turn out to be quite damaging.
keithlaw
Playing the Waiting Game
Even if Teheran is never better than an average starter, the last 2 years of his deal are huge discounts assuming he's healthy. Nolasco signed away his age 31-34 seasons for $49 million this offseason and he's a 90 ERA+ guy who doesn't even average 200 IP.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Freeman deal, sure, but if they waited another year may not have been able to sign him or it would of cost more.
Provided health (no given with pitchers), Julio's deal absolutely could be a bargain given the market for SP's right now.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'm glad to see some dissenting views to the general enthusiasm for the Freeman and Teheran deals. I think the two deals will work out ok for the team. But there is significant risk. In the case of Freeman, the deal is basically assuming he is a 4 win player. He has one season over 4 WAR in his three year career. I would feel better if he had more of a track record, but that is the issue with young players. They get more expensive with more of a track record. The Teheran deal prices him as a 2 win per year player. He came in at 2.4 WAR in his one season. Young players are a better risk than old players. But young players are risky too. See our own Brandon Beachy. See Francoeur. Imagine if he had accepted the deal we offered him.
AUTiger7222
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Ok. We've watched 2 different pitchers and aren't going to agree on this.
weso1
<B>Clique Leader</B>
In Lockhart's defense, Sosa was the only former Brave brown skin pitcher he could think of at that moment.
That's certainly an oxymoron.
Deester11
Well-known member
That made me spit out an energy drink! Thanks a lot Weso! LOL
The funny thing is that I don't get where the bad mechanics nonsense is coming from. Additionally, whether he labored or not, as a rookie he did just fine considering he was supposed to just be a "5th starter." Anyone who saw the Braves consistently when Hudson went down, knew that Minor and Teheran (Wood too) would give you a chance to win games.
If he's never better than an average starter then that's why we have farm system so we don't get stuck in the final years.
Pitching is what we've excelled at in production.
We used Tommy Hanson until the point of no return.
Medlen wasn't thought of as potentially a front end starter.
Minor struggled out of the gate after being drafted top 10. Beachy came out of nowhere and to an extent Wood.
I would have waited another year or two to give him a long term deal.
This is a good and valid point. We have been very, very good at developing good to great pitching for years from our farm system. It is something the Braves are very good at. We didn't really need to take on this added risk. We already had Teheran under team control for the next 5 years. This deal only adds two years to that, with solid raises guaranteed every year.
We still have Medlen for two more years, Minor for 4, Beachy for 3 and Wood for 6. Then we have Sims, Hursh and Graham along with several others that could replace them in the future at minimal cost. I'm not really against the deal per se and if Julio turns into an ace or #2 starter for years and stays relatively healthy this deal could become a bargain, but I'm just not sure the potential reward outweighs the added risk.
AUTiger7222
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Am I the only one that remembers Kyle Davis, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Anthony Lerew, ect. all bombing and the Braves having to pull guys like Buddy Carlyle and Jorge Campillo off the streets just to fill out a rotation in 2006, 2007 and 2008? How'd that work out for the Braves? Just because of have a bunch of guys that are supposed to be highly rated prospects doesn't mean they will develop into solid major league players. That's why you take a guy who you know is proven, Teheran, and you lock him up.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
One interesting aspect about the Freeman and Teheran deals is the Wren reached out to the players and their agents to make the deal. If I recall correctly, with McCann it was the player who asked his agent to explore if a deal could be reached. There is a big difference in the two situations from a bargaining perspective. Having signed Freeman and Teheran, I think Wren should now sit back and wait for the players and agents to approach him.
Locking guys up is one thing, but locking them up with no discount to greatly added risk is another.
I thought I read where Freddie's camp came to Wren regarding both Heywards and Freemans deal.
It's a discount even if he never gets better. 11 million for his first free agency year and then 12 for the option that the Braves have. Both are below current market level prices for what he did in 2013. Also keep in mind that even without taking the next step, each year those potential free agency years would go up in cost as he got closer to free agency and as the market value continued to get inflated. There is a risk sure. He could get hurt/suck along the lines of Hanson. But I think the risk is worth it considering how much he would get if he stays healthy and pitches like he did in 2013 without any improvement.