Braves Statistical Analysis

thethe said:
In the event the team overacheives like they are doing this year.
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So they are overachieving and are in 8th place in the NL and have a negative run differential. They are behind 2 teams in the East, 3 in the Central, and 2 in the East. So, what's the point really? A playoff push is not probable at all.
 
gilesfan said:
So they are overachieving and are in 8th place in the NL and have a negative run differential. They are behind 2 teams in the East, 3 in the Central, and 2 in the East. So, what's the point really? A playoff push is not probable at all.
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They are in the current position they are in while they threw crap in the 4/5 starter spots for a few weeks. Now they have two young pitchers who could stabilize that rotation.

They also brought in a third baseman who has been very valueable the last two years so I think the argument could be made that the Braves from this point moving forward will play ABOVE 500 baseball. HOw much above remains to be seen.
 
chop2chip said:
He's pretty cheap and he allowed us to deal Kimbrel.

My point is that whether we trade him or not doesn't really matter in the grand scheme.
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My point was that in the rebuild you acquire parts and get something of value for them. Him closing for the Braves for 2 years and missing the playoffs doesn't really add value in the grand scheme of things. You could put anyone at closer. Even with the small glimmer of hope of competing for a playoff spot, the difference between Grilli and a random reliever isn't all that great.
 
A playoff push is plausible. First we've been a bit lucky so far. But you pocket that and operate under the assumption luck is neutral the rest of the way.

Secondly, and more importantly, we've upgraded in several spots since the season started. At center, we've eased out EYJr in favor of Maybin. At third, Uribe is an upgrade. We've moved Foltynevich and Baby Harang into the rotation to replace Stults and Cahill. Given these upgrades, I think we now are a .500 team. Doesn't mean that's what we'll be the rest of the season. We could out-perform or under-perform. Luck could be good or bad. Injuries could happen. But we also have some options in AAA for coping with injuries or maybe even upgrading.

If we are above .500 in July, I would want the front office to shop for a couple guys who can help us in the pen. Not guys who would cost a lot to acquire, but it won't take an elite reliever to upgrade our pen.
 
thethe said:
They are in the current position they are in while they threw crap in the 4/5 starter spots for a few weeks. Now they have two young pitchers who could stabilize that rotation.

They also brought in a third baseman who has been very valueable the last two years so I think the argument could be made that the Braves from this point moving forward will play ABOVE 500 baseball. HOw much above remains to be seen.
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Hoping young pitchers "stabilize" the rotation is probably wishful thinking.
 
gilesfan said:
My point was that in the rebuild you acquire parts and get something of value for them. Him closing for the Braves for 2 years and missing the playoffs doesn't really add value in the grand scheme of things. You could put anyone at closer. Even with the small glimmer of hope of competing for a playoff spot, the difference between Grilli and a random reliever isn't all that great.
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So the whole rebuild is a failure, because of Jason Grilli.
You are too much.
 
and it still 100% adds value even if he's not traded, especially if the team improves from this year to next. there's being fair and realistic, and then there's the reach for pessimism that giles consistently displays.
 
nsacpi said:
A playoff push is plausible. First we've been a bit lucky so far. But you pocket that and operate under the assumption luck is neutral the rest of the way.

Secondly, and more importantly, we've upgraded in several spots since the season started. At center, we've eased out EYJr in favor of Maybin. At third, Uribe is an upgrade. We've moved Foltynevich and Baby Harang into the rotation to replace Stults and Cahill. Given these upgrades, I think we now are a .500 team. Doesn't mean that's what we'll be the rest of the season. We could out-perform or under-perform. Luck could be good or bad. Injuries could happen. But we also have some options in AAA for coping with injuries or maybe even upgrading.

If we are above .500 in July, I would want the front office to shop for a couple guys who can help us in the pen. Not guys who would cost a lot to acquire, but it won't take an elite reliever to upgrade our pen.
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I don't think you switch gears. Switching gears probably got us stuck with the Markakis contract. If you are going to rebuild, rebuild. Trade guys like Grilli that won't be here or effective in a couple years. Plus, bullpen arms are the perfect commodity to trade when they are pitching well. They could essentially turn into Dan Kolb tomorrow. I want the team to compete or rebuild; not play games in the middle.
 
gilesfan said:
I don't think you switch gears. Switching gears probably got us stuck with the Markakis contract. If you are going to rebuild, rebuild. Trade guys like Grilli that won't be here or effective in a couple years. Plus, bullpen arms are the perfect commodity to trade when they are pitching well. They could essentially turn into Dan Kolb tomorrow. I want the team to compete or rebuild; not play games in the middle.
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Are the playoffs a crapshoot in your opinion?
 
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