I mean, Miller could have been downright awful..likewise with Peterson/Folty.
These players performing well doesn't seal the fate of the rebuild but I think you would agree that its better than the alternative.
Braves Statistical Analysis
- Thread starter zitothebrave
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I mean, Miller could have been downright awful..likewise with Peterson/Folty.
These players performing well doesn't seal the fate of the rebuild but I think you would agree that its better than the alternative.
The chances of the Braves being a playoff team AND Grilli being effective next year are less than the chances of both those instances not being the case. Grilli is 38 years old.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
My view is we are now a .500 team. That would be my projection for the rest of the year. Fangraphs is projecting us to be 10 below .500 the rest of the way in. That's why they have such a dim view of our playoff chances. I'm wondering about some of the assumptions they are making about playing time. They have updated our team page for Uribe, but seem to be assuming CJ gets almost 100 more at bats than him. They also seem to be assuming significant additional at bats for EYJr. Their pitching data are weird and makes me think they haven't updated things. They are still giving additional innings to Minor and Stults.
Btw if we are below .500 in July, I'm all for moving Grilli and whoever else attracts a reasonable offer.
I think the playoff teams in the NL are: Washington, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, LA and SF. I think they are a cut above the rest. That's why I said we needed one of them to collapse. We also need to be the team that out-performs rather than one of the others. We are a plausible but not probable playoff team.
There are example of relief pitchers who maintain their effectiveness into their late 30's. Maybe Grilli falls off the face of the earth but the stuff he is showing so far wouldnot lead me to believe that.
Also, I think you are severely underrating the potential of the Braves starting pitching.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I agree wholeheartedly that we should trade Johnson/Grilli/Uribe etc. and it's obvious the front office will make any deal that improves the long term outlook of the team. That seems to be pretty apparent considering every move (besides Markakis) had that outlook in mind. I'm confident that those guys will be traded.
But in the off chance Grilli isn't traded it's not really going to matter. That's the entire point. I'm speaking from a position that not every veteran is going to net Byron Buxton (contrary to others). Getting back Victor Carrini level prospects wint define the direction of your franchise.
chop2chip
Well-known member
My issue is that people assume that because someone is outperforming their FIP means they have only been lucky.
People seems to not realize that a 3.20 FIP for Shelby is still borderline ace even accounting for normal luck.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I don't think we need to worry about the Mets. Maybe the Cubs and Pads. There are a lot of weak teams in the NL this year and especially so in our own division.
I think Shelby's new approach (more 2 seamers) leads to worse rate stats but better aggregate stats.
If I had to choose one for a starter I thinkI would go with aggregate numbers. Shelby is consistently going deep into games and the cumulative affect that this has on a baseball team over 162 is invaluable. Of course, to be an ACE he needs to have both but one step at a time.
My expecations from the rotation:
Teheran- high 3s
Miller- low to mid 3;s
Wood- low 3s
Folty- low 4s
Perez- low 4s
Is that for this year, next year or in perpetuity?
Shelby is 3.35. I am certainly more optimistic on him than during the offseason. It will depend how much of his "stats' he can maintain bc he's certainly not going to have a .202 BABIP and 88% LOB% for his career. A low to mid 3 ERA is very good though.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
The trade deadline is 2 months away. Lets see where we are in late July and go from there. This team is getting better as we go. Maybin as a full time starter has been a big boon. Uribe was a big upgrade to both offense and defense. Our top 2 prospects are doing well at AAA so they could help soon. Thisa he blasphemy but I think this team needs a trade similar to the Rasmus trade the Cardinals made but with Teheran. Trade Julio for a decent hitter that plays catcher or left and a few good relievers and this team is in buisness.
I think the Mets are better. Their rotation is disgusting.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Shelby's strikeout rate has been over 20% most of the year. That's more important than K/9 innings since the latter is adversely affected by having a low BABIP. (If you get a ground out, you have 1 less chance to get a strikeout while if that becomes a single then you have an additional chance to get a strikeout).
I understand what everyone is saying that he's going to regress, but even if he regresses to his FIP then he's still a stud.
In the immediate future. 1 to 1.5 years
chop2chip
Well-known member
It must have went up from his last start since he only had the one strike out.
I agree 99% with what you are saying. We have had this discussion earlier. Is Shelby going to regress to his peripherals or are his peripherals going to catch up to his performance? I'm an optimist, and a Braves homer, so I side with the latter even though the most likely outcome is somewhere between those two outcomes.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I love their pitching too. I don't think it can carry them though.
sturg33
I
But even if he was terrible this year it doesn't matter bc we're not a playoff team. That's frustrating that we're wasting prime years on guys for a punt year
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think that's about right. But I would put the two rookies closer to 4 than 4.5. They both look like the real deal to me, though in very different styles obviously. Baby Harang will have to be smart mixing his pitches or have a catcher who can call a smart game. The infield defense is very good now with Uribe, which will help Wood and Perez.