Braves Statistical Analysis

gilesfan said:
So they are overachieving and are in 8th place in the NL and have a negative run differential. They are behind 2 teams in the East, 3 in the Central, and 2 in the East. So, what's the point really? A playoff push is not probable at all.
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The point is exactly what Hart said they were going to do at the beginning of the season. Rebuild the farm system while still putting a team out there that's at least a bit competitive and pretty fun to watch play without draining us financially in the future. Hart didn't want to put the 2013 Astros out there. Now, certainly if the young guys are ready then they will play ahead of the veterans as long as Fredi allows it. But the point of the one and two year deals wasn't just to trade guys at the deadline. It was also to entertain the fans. So for Grilli for example, I as a fan enjoy watching a team that actually has a guy in the back end of the bullpen that can actually close out games. You probably don't care, but you are also a fan of the Nationals.

Now, you may strongly disagree with the plan that JS and the braves formulated, but it's hard to argue at this point that Hart's execution of the plan is not working. Hart has executed his plan very well imo, with only a couple of questionable moves (Markakis and Cahill).
 
gilesfan said:
Uribe is worth, what 1 win over the remainder of the season?
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I have no clue what type of impact he will have in terms of wins and losses. All I know is that he hasthe potential for an impact. Also, its more than just what he brings to the table individually but how the team is aided by his presence collectively. If he starts hitting all of a sudden Freddie isn't pitched around as much. Then if Kelly maintains some semblance of his production the Braves all of a sudden have a solid 1-6 in the lineup.
 
gilesfan said:
I don't think you switch gears. Switching gears probably got us stuck with the Markakis contract. If you are going to rebuild, rebuild. Trade guys like Grilli that won't be here or effective in a couple years. Plus, bullpen arms are the perfect commodity to trade when they are pitching well. They could essentially turn into Dan Kolb tomorrow. I want the team to compete or rebuild; not play games in the middle.
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I understand where you are coming from. But to me punting in the first place represented an enormous misjudgment about the team. How can you punt during the prime years of players like Freeman and Simmons. I understand punting and going into full rebuild mode when your best player is a rapidly declining Dale Murphy, but this team is very far removed from that. I can't remember another front office tearing down a team that had as much promise. So if this team does well enough to contend in spite of the tear down then I want to see it given a chance to make the playoffs.

Btw on a tangentially related note, the three guys we traded away put up OPS of .932, .964 and .783 in May. Like everyone else, I'm pleasantly surprised how well the group we traded for are doing. But I insist on taking in the full picture with respect to decisions made by the front office. That includes what has been happening to attendance and possible future ramifications of that. I'm not going to bury my head in the sand and assume that loss of revenue in 2015 has zero implications for future payrolls.
 
nsacpi said:
I understand where you are coming from. But to me punting in the first place represented an enormous misjudgment about the team. How can you punt during the prime years of players like Freeman and Simmons. I understand punting and going into full rebuild mode when your best player is a rapidly declining Dale Murphy, but this team is very far removed from that. I can't remember another front office tearing down a team that had as much promise. So if this team does well enough to contend in spite of the tear down then I want to see it given a chance to make the playoffs.

Btw on a tangentially related note, the three guys we traded away put up OPS of .932, .964 and .783 in May. Like everyone else, I'm pleasantly surprised how well the group we traded for are doing. But I insist on taking in the full picture with respect to decisions made by the front office. That includes what has been happening to attendance and possible future ramifications of that. I'm not going to bury my head in the sand and assume that loss of revenue in 2015 has zero implications for future payrolls.
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Oh, I agree we shouldn't have went into rebuild mode. But, now that we are, I don't get the point of half assing it. That just prolongs the rebuild.
 
nsacpi said:
I understand where you are coming from. But to me punting in the first place represented an enormous misjudgment about the team. How can you punt during the prime years of players like Freeman and Simmons. I understand punting and going into full rebuild mode when your best player is a rapidly declining Dale Murphy, but this team is very far removed from that. I can't remember another front office tearing down a team that had as much promise. So if this team does well enough to contend in spite of the tear down then I want to see it given a chance to make the playoffs.

Btw on a tangentially related note, the three guys we traded away put up OPS of .932, .964 and .783 in May. Like everyone else, I'm pleasantly surprised how well the group we traded for are doing. But I insist on taking in the full picture with respect to decisions made by the front office. That includes what has been happening to attendance and possible future ramifications of that. I'm not going to bury my head in the sand and assume that loss of revenue in 2015 has zero implications for future payrolls.
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Keep in mind the Braves have had 3 weekend home series this season as opposed to 5 in 2014. Also, attendance is down on average about 4% from the prior years first half up until this point. There is a drop in attendance that is affecting the Braves but its not as bd as the 20% decrease that the numbers bear out so far.
 
gilesfan said:
Uribe is worth, what 1 win over the remainder of the season?
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Relative to the lineup and rotation we were using in April, I think we've improved about 5 wins. Enough to get us to being a .500 team imo. Anything more will require guys outplaying their projections and some luck or a combination of the two. I think we are a plausible but not probable playoff team. We might need one team that is considered a strong playoff team to experience some sort of collapse. If we are above .500 come July, I would try to upgrade the pen on the cheap.
 
gilesfan said:
Oh, I agree we shouldn't have went into rebuild mode. But, now that we are, I don't get the point of half assing it. That just prolongs the rebuild.
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How does keeping Grilli prolong the rebuild?

I am not necessarily disagreeing with you that we should trade Grilli btw.
 
thethe said:
Keep in mind the Braves have had 3 weekend home series this season as opposed to 5 in 2014. Also, attendance is down on average about 4% from the prior years first half up until this point. There is a drop in attendance that is affecting the Braves but its not as bd as the 20% decrease that the numbers bear out so far.
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We'll see. I think we'll be down about 10% for the year. I would guess that will cost us about $5-10M off of next year's payroll.
 
thethe said:
How does keeping Grilli prolong the rebuild?

I am not necessarily disagreeing with you that we should trade Grilli btw.
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Keeping him can prolong it. You probably win a couple more games and not get the advantage of better draft picks and whatever compensation you could get from Grilli now. I can understand keeping cornerstone players like Freeman and Simmons and not being able to trade a Markakis or some of the other veterans; but Grilli is performing well right now. Why not maximize it if the playoffs are a longshot?
 
nsacpi said:
We'll see. I think we'll be down about 10% for the year. I would guess that will cost us about $5-10M off of next year's payroll.
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Hopefully the decrease in overall payroll was built into an expected decreased in attendance. Its just impossible to guess whats goingto happen with the Braves payroll in the future.

I think if the right deal/player presents itself (Upton willing to come back or Greinke taking a small haircut from market value) that the Braves will capitalize. Then I believe we will see a sizeable jump for 2017.
 
nsacpi said:
Relative to the lineup and rotation we were using in April, I think we've improved about 5 wins. Enough to get us to being a .500 team imo. Anything more will require guys outplaying their projections and some luck or a combination of the two. I think we are a plausible but not probable playoff team. We might need one team that is considered a strong playoff team to experience some sort of collapse. If we are above .500 come July, I would try to upgrade the pen on the cheap.
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Does that mean you think the team wins 75-80 games? If so, again, what is the point? I don't see how the team finishes with a better record than:

Nats
Mets
Cards
Cubs
Pirates
Dodgers
Giants
Padres

Out of curiosity, fangraphs have the Braves as a 2.6% of making the playoffs.
 
gilesfan said:
Keeping him can prolong it. You probably win a couple more games and not get the advantage of better draft picks and whatever compensation you could get from Grilli now. I can understand keeping cornerstone players like Freeman and Simmons and not being able to trade a Markakis or some of the other veterans; but Grilli is performing well right now. Why not maximize it if the playoffs are a longshot?
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But if he performs well and they exercise his option for next season isn't that valuable as well? What if things for the most part go according to plan and even better. The Braves could realistically be in a position to make the playoffs next season and having a closer that is effective will help.
 
gilesfan said:
Does that mean you think the team wins 75-80 games? If so, again, what is the point? I don't see how the team finishes with a better record than:

Nats
Mets
Cards
Cubs
Pirates
Dodgers
Giants
Padres

Out of curiosity, fangraphs have the Braves as a 2.6% of making the playoffs.
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Thats 2.7% points higher than most on this board thought prior to the start of the season!
 
At this point in time I think the Braves have just as good of a shot as either hte Padres but the other teams are clearly ahead of them. Like I have said...I want to see how this team is playing come July 1st before I ultimately make my decision on whether or not to trade these pieces. I think you would agree thats fair.
 
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